Newberryone

Good to see you've reconciled yourself Karl to the fact there's now little or no point in ramping up any further potential cold snaps/spells, at least none with any depth anyhow. In fact, it would appear at an extraordinary early stage that you're already championing the cause for anticyclonic conditions brought about courtesy of your old arch-enemy The Azores high. Yes, we all know March 2013 was one of the coldest in 50 odd years or so, but with the way this past season has panned out, it's highly unlikely we'll see a repeat. Here's hoping the Azores will keep you waxing lyrical throughout the summer of 2015 with OTT comments re: Ireland and the UK going into the oven.

On viewing some of the latest charts, Frosty and many others who were anticipating the cold conditions to become more entrenched have no doubt gone one better http://www.gifbin.com/bin/112010/1289908258_strange-scare-reaction.webm

A transient ridge quietening things down this coming weekend, but only temporarily as a reinvigorated PV seems to cause a strengthening of the jet stream next week, as indicated by the Ecm 00z op. Good to see Uncle Barty having less and less of an influence at least.

Be careful what you wish for CH, for as others have stated, heights to our south are unlikely to lead us to a potentially cold outlook anytime soon. I would also beg to differ re the later stages of the Ecm. For eg, let's just say the chart showing for Sun 4th of Jan so happened to be the day 10 Ecm chart, it would be a reasonable enough assumption I think for one to perhaps draw a similar conclusion to that of yours re the potential for something more settled. However, the day 10 chart to me shows an all too powerful jet stream to allow anything other than perhaps a transient ridge to follow such a depression as shown.

Down to each individual's interpretation of model output I can appreciate, but when you have one saying it's going to become very unsettled from early next week, while the other posters overall take on things is for it to become merely changeable, I can see how newbies might be somewhat confused. Personally, I would right now lean more towards the idea of it being changeable rather than downright unsettled. Besides, heights over Iberia as well as a menacing Azores, look like ensuring the worst of the wind and rain is kept well to the northwest.

Certainly looks to me IDO that things will become quite zonal as we head into week 2. As you rightly point out, pv to our northwest very evident indeed, albeit somewhat disorganised. At least with seemingly lower heights to our south by then, no fear of Uncle Barty paying us a visit. PM incursions aplenty

Hopefully any alleged lack of data at this time of year is responsible for the stomach churning offerings of the 12z ecm. Even if zonal does look like becoming the keyword from midweek on wards, no full atlantic onslaught is evident owing to the ongoing persistence of generally high heights to the south. Glancing blows to the northwest of Ireland and Scotland, followed perhaps by pm incursions at most. All a tad frustrating.

According to the pros here.. The weather for next Sunday and early next week is still in the balance. It is likely to start off cold, dry and frosty, but the Atlantic weather fronts, with a milder, windier and wetter regime, may yet return early next week. Quite different to the stance they adopted as recently as last evening when they were quite bullish about the weather being "settled and cold" in the run up to the New Year.

Mods might be kind enough here on this occasion to permit this to go under the radar as it yet again illustrates how fluid the situation is right now in the NH.. This was the line being used by the Irish Met service which aired earlier this morning.. Beyond St Stephen's day the outlook becomes much more uncertain. At the moment it looks like St Stephen's day will be dry to start with rain developing from the west later in freshening southerly winds. It looks likely to become milder again too but there is a large degree of uncertainty in the atmosphere beyond the short range.

Yes indeed, looks like a very nasty feature, although for Ireland as a whole it doesn't appear that the system will be that disruptive.

Wise words I'm glad to say.Can start my day feeling a tad more optimistic now.

Judging by the downward trend for cold, I would say not just for Xmas day but the general holiday period.All of those so called knee jerk reactions in response to yesterday's 12z suites are looking more and more justifiable..unfortunately!

PM shots aplenty this coming week with quite a potent one featuring next Fri/Sat, however latter stages of this am's Ecm op look very uninspiring with what has been described on here as that wretched Azores high, as it yet again threatens something less favourable from a coldies perspective

The position of any higher pressure to the South of the UK will be indicative of how much of the wind and rain from these Lows affect the South but a more certain fact is that if High pressure does develop there it will be mild for all and once developed can become a real fixture for a sustained period but as for now this is a minority view. A quote from Gibby above which both the Gfs, GfsP and its ensembles have been toying with on and off over recent days. Seems to be a widely held view here that a displaced/disorganised PV may enhance our chances of introducing something colder down the line. However, I would say one of the knockon effects of this would be a greater chance of height rises from the south becoming more of a player. Not even the slightest hint of PM incursions should the latter stages of the Gfs gain momentum in the coming days.

Yes, the latter frames of the GFSP is quite an eye opener. Couldn't see us getting a second bite of the cherry anytime soon should height rises from the south feature to this extent. Many will no doubt label it as being an outlier, but as it's soon to be the replacement for the current GFS, I would've thought it cannot be discounted either.

I wouldn't be so sure of that as pressure has been consistently high in the south Atlantic now for quite a considerable period of time and shows no real signs of declining. Ecm really seems to be holding very firm on this and although the day 10 chart indicates a pm incursion trying to make feeble inroads from the northwest, another large high pressure cell seems to be hotfooting it across the Atlantic to continue a similar theme.

Can we assume so that IF the PV does relocate to that position, that we can expect to see a far more active Atlantic affecting many parts of Northwestern Europe?

A constant theme with recent output seems to be the huge swathe of high pressure firmly anchored in the south Atlantic. In fact the latest Ecm 00z charts in the latter frames continue to show it's strong and unrelenting influence.

The only subtle difference between yesterdays ecm output and today's is the slight delay in the building of heights from the south, but it certainly gets there in the end. Contrary to popular belief, there's little to suggest these charts won't verify. In a word...MILD!

Interesting thoughts from the above posts with regards to week 2 when you read the following quote from the Irish met office..Further outlook (high degree of uncertainty): A possibility of some rain on Friday followed by scattered showers on Saturday and then by mainly dry weather over the long weekend. (Average temperatures: daytime in the low teens typically and cool nights).

Seems almost inevitable now we're going to see far more than just a transient ridge come next weekend. Last week of October ending on an extremely quiet note with above average temps. Turn of the month does hold the promise of another PM incursion.

Seems the two main op models Ecm and Gfs, with quite reasonable support from the Ens means, have altered the landscape somewhat overnight, with what I dare say to many, underwhelming output. I see nothing to suggest anything other than very limited ( if any) PM incursions for the foreseeable. If anything, the Azores high looks like it could become quite a dominant player from midweek on, should the latest output verify. Then again, perhaps we need to factor in Hurricane Gonzalo with regards to how the models are currently interpreting surface conditions after midweek. Either way, it all looks a tad benign with slightly above average temps following a very unsettled weekend and start to next week. PS Seems the lack of posts on here today suggest I may have a point.

Ecm 12z op ending a second run on a potentially less unsettled note with further ridging from the southwest a distinct possibility

Just wondering if anyone's cast an eye on that pesky little feature down to the southwest on day number 10 of the Ecm 00z Unlikely to be still there on the next update but interesting all the same.