Newberryone

As others have highlighted, the latest ECM op certainly painting a very different picture today with a far more robust euro block in the later stages. It would appear that only parts of Northern Ireland and Northwest Scotland would receive anything noteworthy in terms of rainfall should these verify. As ever, more runs needed I suspect.

Stronger heights to dominate further east maybe, but still these charts would suggest sufficient Atlantic trough action to eventually bring high enough precipitation to Ireland.

While I agree it's all about spotting trends early on, but realistically way outside the reliable time frame to carry any real clout.Nothing's set in stone right now and it's not unknown from times past for UKMO to revise their long range forecast. Besides, Frosty's ( ) likely to become a manic depressive should this be the eventual outcome.

I may be wrong Karl but judging by many of the experienced posters on here and in particular the post submitted by John Holmes at 09:49, and I quote.. this from my 2x daily review of the 3 main anomaly charts noaanoaa 6-10 continues similar unsettled idea, with 8-14 also along similar lines, heights on both over s uk are not as low as a week or 10 days ago, although not by much, so deep lows may well feature in this period, and crucially perhaps south of the more usual Newfoundland-s of Iceland-n of Scotland route. and Mon 17feb Ec-gfs Even more trough governed than last issues on both of them; flow a bit more s of west on ec than gfs, gfs more ‘straight over atlantic than ec, both show trough diffluent just w of uk. It could be another spell of very disturbed weather? I really can't see day 11 producing anything other than a renewed push of southwesterly winds in advance of the next low which seems poised to strike soon after.

While I can wholeheartedly understand people wanting a dramatic change and fast one at that to drier weather, I hope for coldies sake the final frames of the Ecm 00z don't verify or gain cross model support, for I cannot see temps plummeting anytime soon after this.

Very hard one to call alright and this quote from the Irish met service reiterates your point..." There is considerable uncertainty about weather conditions affecting Ireland after Thursday next and no definitive statements can be made as yet. However, there is potential for further wind storms and periods of heavy rain "

Inevitably the atmosphere will become less unstable but as things stand I must say, no matter what the signals, that's one mighty brave prediction for mid Feb. Should it verify, well done!

Have I missed something because all the models for the next week to possibly 10 days seem to be showing anything but an Uncle Barty theme?

Looks like these very tightly packed isobars could impact hard on our shores overnight Friday into Saturday. Just my look too that I'll be cycling to work during the small hours Wish me luck!

No doubt us Corkonians in the south of Ireland will be first in line for another good soaking so

The said same block which will more than likely do nothing but slow down the progress of these frontal systems, hence depositing higher rainfall totals, especially to Northwestern areas.

Three words spring to mind...Bring It On

True, a change will ultimately come about but it's presently showing all the signs of being later rather than sooner. There's no disguising the fact the earths climate has become more extreme. Case in point being last year itself, don't have the stats but exceptionally dry and warm from June just about sums it up. Nature will always redress the balance and that is precisely what's been happening since Dec 12th last. Personally, the present synoptics are far more exciting than a boring Azores-Bartlett

To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.

It would appear BFTP your assessment as things stand is right on track for if ever a set of charts were to bear testament to your SW/NE axis theory, these would surely qualify.."Dec Revisited" Albeit on a less turbulent scale perhaps

Great post and one in which I'm inclined to agree. The main players ie Ecm and Gfs have most definitely been trending towards less ridging and overall flatter pattern being reestablished and hence a more volatile Atlantic showing its cards following next weekend. Undoubtedly could all change in coldies favour but the way this season has played out so far leaves little room for optimism I'm afraid. Charts that are unquestionably very reminiscent of last Dec beginning to emerge.

Judging by the latest Ecm I can't see too much to ramp about for it just seems to point to more of the same, rinse and repeat, call it what you will. Cool/cold incursions but certainly nothing sustained

Doesn't quite scream potential I'm afraid and by this stage Spring will be upon us, or as good as, admittedly not in meteorological terms. While last Spring brought record breaking cold to many, there's no reason whatsoever for us to believe this will be repeated this year. While no one is saying this I know, I can't help but feel what happened,especially last March, is raising peoples expectations in counteracting what's undeniably been a huge disappointment for coldies this season. Changes are definitely afoot, ridging from the south southwest becoming more and more apparent with each run. However, this does not bode well for cold I fear. It all appears very reminiscent of what we had to endure in the run up to Thursday Dec 12th, when the weather finally broke down after weeks and weeks of what many have called "bog standard" fare. These Ecm 0z charts do nothing but reinforce my pessimism

I think it's fair to say while a pattern change is now anticipated for the latter stages of next week, I fail to see anything positive from a cold perspective. I only hope what's modelled here will not verify or at least any ridging from the azores will be of a transient nature. While I appreciate the azores can often eventually lead to a cold solution depending on how far north it extends but we know only too well from previous experience that more than not it fails to do this and so scuppers any real chance of a favourable pattern change.

As highlighted by many, recent runs of the Ecm looking far less amplified again. Dare I even say the chart for Sun Jan 12th has all the signs of a zonal reset. Those far fetch southwesterly winds not looking great for coldies

I think most would agree when I say how uninspiring these last two frames from the Ecm 00z appear for anything really cold and added to that while the Met Office are calling for a continuation of this turbulent spell up to mid-January, I wouldn't be surprised to see heights building from the south, which is clearly evident here, reverting things back to conditions very similar to that of late Nov and early Dec. Ever changing I know as models tend to be but ever since the weather broke down we've seen constant ridging from the south between lows only now I get the distinct feeling we could be facing a bartlett type setup again very early January. I hope I'm totally wrong of course

A very Happy Christmas everyone from a sunny but very cold and frosty County Cork. Here's hoping for many more of the same come 2014. Have a great day.

As I suggested in an earlier post today this could become almost an historic weather period for such intense zoneality but I'm rather curious as to what's being suggested by the closing part of the above post. Anyone care to enlighten?

Only a couple of days ago some models were hinting at the possibility of the pattern easing somewhat by Dec 28th owing to a rise in pressure to the southwest. Ecm op run showing that rise at the time with little or no support however from its ensemble member. Judging by the latest Ecm output it would appear the op is now more in line with the ensemble for this particular time frame. Who knows, perhaps to equal the almost unprecedented weather happenings of Dec '09 and Nov/Dec '10 for cold we are now about to experience a new historic weather event courtesy of an extremely active vortex. I think it's fair to say, judging by the last 3 frames of the Ecm 00z, this has the potential to run and run.

All open to interpretation of course but conflicting views nevertheless with regards to the last frame of the latest ecm op update. I feel there's a relatively high chance this modeled high down to the southwest would in all probability setup shop close to the southeast of England, settling things down to an extent there but for areas closer to the northwest, especially Ireland, a continuation in the unsettled theme, albeit less intense.