Newberryone

Glad to say the Irish Met service have perhaps decided to join the party...Here's their latest update as issued just within the last 10 min Saturday night/Sunday the 1st January, 2017: A possibility of some rain moving in from the Atlantic followed by colder weather but details uncertain.

That's a very valid point to be fair and one that unfortunately won't over excite some of my fellow cold weather worshippers such January Snowstorm etc

Admittedly the change in air mass isn't anticipated until next Sunday but just by going on the wording of this mornings Met Eireann outlook I can't help but get the feeling they're either being cautious or seeing this potential cold snap as a bit of a damp squib....A very halfhearted affair tbh The general outlook is for settled weather for the rest of the week as high pressure (anticyclone) blocks out the Atlantic rain. It is going to get milder too. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Chilly Wednesday night with lowest temperatures around zero to 4 degrees and local frost. Thursday: Dry with sunny spells A little milder with highest temperatures 8 to 11 degrees in moderate to fresh southwesterly winds. Mild Thursday night. Friday & Saturday: The dry spell is forecast to continue with sunny spells. Mild, blustery days with daytime temperatures of 10 or 11 degrees and not falling below around 8 degrees at night. Sunday the 1st January, 2017: A possibility of some rain moving in from the Atlantic.

Unlike a few days back it's now looking doubtful that this resurgent atlantic will become the dominant player over a prolonged period as the return of the euro high next week is certain to divert the worst of those winter storms well away towards Iceland

One can only admire your optimism Karl, doesn't look too encouraging from next Tuesday on however with Ecm Ens now on the same hymn sheet as the op with regards to the slug taking centre stage again.

No, but unfortunately that's what the latest Ecm Ens seem to be suggesting as we head towards the New Year.

Can't say there's too much to be enthused about with a continuation of those euro heights

Sounds like we can deduce from this that the PV will have possibly strengthened significantly enough in the latter stages to bring us flashbacks of last winters continuous Atlantic onslaught. However, if given a choice between the now all too familiar Euro Slug scenario or an active zonal train, give me the ferocity of Mother Nature and everything associated with a zonal train any day.

Irish Met service in their weekly 5-7 day forecast outlook this afternoon now talking about the likelihood of an intense anticyclone (euro slug) setting up shop over central Europe as we near next weekend. The prospect of this happening doesn't auger well for any shortening of the upcoming mild spell, except for the fact it would deflect the first possible major Atlantic storm of the season from our shores, which they highly anticipate.

Certainly the latest 00z ecm looking far less unsettled than the previous run for the latter stages of next week and possibly beyond with those ever tedious heights to our south, be it a euro slug or azores high deflecting systems north, which will more likely be the way things pan out as the gfs has a tendency to at times be over progressive. Over simplistic perhaps but it does now look as if we're about to enter an indefinite period of average to slightly above temps with just occasional pm incursions. In summary, all very average for the time of year.

Hopefully these charts which clearly point to just occasional pm incursions won't be the story of winter 16/17. Bit early I admit to be jumping on the emotional rollercoaster but when compared to what was on offer even as recently as yesterday I can't help but feel somewhat disappointed. Even the low numbers in the forum this morning go some way in reflecting this opinion. Oh dear!!

Please don't disregard this mods as I feel it's not off topic and overall considerably relevant to the present discussion re medium term cold prospects...Just been listening to this mornings 7:55 weather update from Ireland's met service and what's being forecast from midweek onwards doesn't seem to concur with what we're seeing here on the likes of both the Ecm and Gfs 00z Wednesday will be a mainly dry day with sunny spells followed by a cold, clear night with minimum temperatures coming closer to freezing with light to moderate northwesterly winds. The winds will begin to back to the southwest later. The further outlook to towards the end of next week is for southwesterly winds and temperatures around normal for the time of year. There's a signal for a spell of rain for Friday but otherwise a good deal of dry weather.

In terms of reliability my money's on the former. Should this be the case expect many more references to Knockers daffs in the days ahead..

While in the short to medium term, yes things do look like becoming more autumnal with low pressure gaining the upper hand, especially so for more northwestern parts, I would have thought the opposite then again being the case as we near Oct with yet again high pressure taking up residence over the low countries. So admittedly while 24 hrs can be classed as a long ways off in terms of meteorology, let alone a week from now, I wouldn't care to hedge too many bets right now on your assertion of The High Pressure finally losing control. PS very wise to have placed a question mark with that statement, as you did

Must say tonight's Ecm is looking very amplified and increasingly benign, even possibly for parts of Scotland and N Ireland, as we go through next week owing to that huge swathe of high pressure down over Southern Europe which seemingly refuses to do a hike. Can only hope at this early stage that this feature will not become a major player during the upcoming season.

Ah Karl, the same Azores high that will no doubt have you along with 99.99% on here reaching for the Prozac from Nov-Feb inclusive. You know it's true!

While it has to be said and acknowledged that considerable uncertainty continues to prevail with regards to Fi, the Ecm00z op can only really be best described as somewhat of a downgrade on yesterdays 12z output for w/c the 12th Sept. Yes, it does show ridging but this only seems transient in nature compared to the already described "vast improvement" that was originally been indicated for this same period. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see further adjustments of a downward nature for next week closer to that time frame. All highly speculative I admit at this early stage however.

Bitterly (forgive the pun) disappointing Fi pc model forecast compared to the "epic" cold spell predictions of quite recently. To my untrained eye, all I can foresee going by one of the big players, Ecm, is a return of the Euro slug, as some like to call it,l. Met Eireann now predicting a return of the Atlantic influence with mild weather from Mon onwards

Could this be the aforementioned Uncle B we all detest so much during the ever frenzied season trying to join the party for all the wrong reasons from the southwest I wonder. At least, the main models have now seemed to back off or greatly modified these dartboard lows which some members on here had envisaged bringing disruptive weather between the dates of the 10th and 15th

Knocks, after experiencing such a prolonged wet spell by then, what leads you to believe any ridging from the Azores back into northwestern parts of Europe, now showing at the end of the ext eps, would only be temporary in nature? Is it basically only a brief respite from the wind and rain that we can deduce from this?

Tidings of joy perhaps for coldies post Christmas. Could very well be for we're all very well aware of the fact that the professionals have access to considerable more data output than us mere mortals. Met Eireann forecast on RTE at teatime stating that there are now signs of the weather possibly turning "much colder" from the 25th onwards. Perhaps not relevant quoting the professionals I know mods as this is a model discussion thread, but as we're all championing the same cause, i.e. cold weather prospects, you might on this occasion take heart.

After the brief respite of recent days it's certainly shaping up to be a rather turbulent affair for Christmas week with copious rainfall and the potential for some damaging gusts. Some headline making weather to come one would think, let alone a rough ride for Santa.

While I pretty much agree it's all about looking for signs in Fi, I'd be very hesitant right now in giving much credence to anything outside the reliable time frame with regards to sustained pressure rises as indicated especially by the GFS. As IDO pointed out earlier, the GFS op has this tendency to overdo height rises when it spots another slower Atlantic period, but the mean keeps it real. Besides, any Euro ridge that may take hold post St Stephens Day/Boxing Day, looks as has been the case so far to be more beneficial to southern/southeastern UK than anything on a widespread scale. Christmas week itself is looking very turbulent indeed, especially for flood stricken Eire.

For northwestern parts especially, but not exclusively of course, another very wet look to Ecm 00z op with potential for renewed flooding episodes. Not unprecedented weather setup by any means unfortunately because of our latitude. Latter stages of this suite does however offer up some grain of hope with generally a sign of more heights in the south Atlantic and the jet stream pushed slightly further north as a consequence, but then again, how many times has the Ecm been guilty of overdoing heights especially towards the end of many runs.

Only one run, but it would appear going by the 12z Ecm op that northwestern parts, not alone areas further south may after all be spared the worst of the Atlantic onslaught, for on this update things are looking far more amplified from Tues next onwards. Which no doubt to the relief of many kinda makes my earlier post redundant now.