Newberryone

If it was Tuesday Oct 31st I would be inclined to describe it as being eerily quiet in here, but it's not Halloween yet. Only logical explanation I can come up with for this is more than likely the latest Ecm12z. One blink and you'll miss it pm shot/incursion for around the 4th is all this update seems to offer.

Very amplified 00z ECM run overall with admittedly a rather potent but relatively short chilly snap occurring outside the reliable timeframe. Certainly no weather advisaries on any front for the foreseeable.

Not just the southeast quarter I would think owing to that infamous Euro Slug which seems to be more and more evident from around the 25th onwards. Seems by then to be fending off the Atlantic pretty well.

May seem a little off topic considering the main focus off attention being Ophelia and its projected path. However, beyond that, the atlantic on the Ecm 00z doesn't seem to be as rampant as on the previous run, with more in the way of higher heights to the south again deflecting the worst of any wind and rain to the far northwest.

Storm Darwin hit Ireland on 12 February 2014 causing major damage to housing, property and forestry. The climate records suggest that Storm Darwin was broadly a 1 in 20 year event. Remains to be seen as to whether or not this weather system has the potential to rival that event.

While they might be mentioning it at the BBC, certainly the same can't be said for the Irish met service. No early weather warnings, not even a mention of this system by Met Eireann on its 9:30pm broadcast tonight.

I'm not sure, but I think judging by tonight's Ecm that nothing beyond Wed next is very certain, for this run would seem to be slightly less amplified than the previous run with the Atlantic knocking more aggressively on the door.

According to the professionals only 10mm of rain is expected over many parts of Ireland between now and next Friday, 13th Oct, with the exception of higher ground over parts of the southwest, west and northwest. To be fair, this is very evident in the 12z Ecm, as one can see the majority of any Atlantic activity is being diverted to the very far off northwest with only Scotland and the northern tip of Ireland being affected to any degree. If anything, the huge swathe of high pressure to the south looks like taking an even firmer hold in the latter stages of this run. So what looked like becoming a more entrenched unsettled period from next Wed according to the models only a couple of days ago has been watered down considerably tonight.

The last chart, Ecm day 10 that is, would suggest there's the possibility that any unsettled spell may be relatively short lived. The vast area of high pressure in mid Atlantic will more than likely topple in behind that vigorous low, having the effect of at least quietening things down a tad, especially for more southern areas.

While it's fair to say the Ecm does push the high back south but it's not for long as the high exerts its influence again very much in the days that follow

Certainly looking more and more benign with time, if we're to take this mornings output at face value. The general rise in pressure anchored to the southwest going into week 2 doesn't look transient in nature by any means. For now at least!

At day 10 it's difficult to say owing to the fact the Ecm has a tendency to over amplify only to be more progressive again on subsequent runs. I hear what you're saying re a Bartlett High though, from being our summer friend to winter foe.

Ecm may largely be at odds with the Gfs true enough, but there's no denying the end result, i.e day 10 chart is I'm sure you may agree, indicative of a more settled/benign period courtesy of that rise in pressure to the southwest. That little feature has the potential of becoming a blocking high I would think, thus deflecting systems well to the northwest for quite some time.

Latest Ecm indicating quite a rapid settling down or at the very least overall improvement from day 8 with the jet being pushed further north, unlike the previous run. Question remains as to how much credence one can give this sudden change considering the present volatile weather picture.

Not alone the weekend, but it would appear in pretty much agreement for next week as well. A lot more amplication on the overnight ECM for next week compared to yesterday's run. Precipitation running well below average for most areas if it holds true.

Yes, ECM looks quite encouraging but move onto the last frame which would be for Thurs 15th and it would appear that high pressure cell could indeed overshoot allowing low pressure to nudge closer from the southwest, something that Crewecold alluded to within the past 24 hours.

That was a mighty brave call considering it wasn't as you say model related. I'd be somewhat surprised if your line of thought is similar this morning having seen the 00z Ecm. Looks decent enough up until Sun but worryingly is holding firm on less cold conditions becoming established thereafter.

Easily said I admit, but my recent OTT statement re Feb 1st in relation to season change was only a desperate attempt or indeed classic eg of reverse psychology. Looking at the 12z's I think it may not have been in vain, except that begrudgingly I also have to admit, as in times past, that with these kind of synoptics the best we in Ireland can expect are those infamous leftover scraps.

Global temps were at there highest recorded level for 2016, so I can only imagine if this worrying trend continues that my original post which I was berated for earlier may not sound so farcical after all.

No where did I state it can't get cold in Feb, just merely pointing out the unlikeliness of any meaningful cold spell as we head towards the back end of Winter.

Call me fussy as well as being hard to please, but with today being the first of Spring, yes I know nowadays it's considered to be the last month of winter in the meteorological calendar, but I fail to get excited about any potential easterly. What with the noticeable lengthening of daylight hours and the sun gaining strength, I deem this to be all just too little too late. Get excited if you must about a few continental flurries, but it's a mighty poor second best compared to a midwinter freeze, i.e. late Dec/early Jan. At least then you have reasonable scope remaining for reloads, unlike now with knockers daffs on the verge of doing a merry dance.

Well I for one hope the Atlantic does steamroll through and flattens once and for all that euro high that has sat there for most of this so-called joke of a winter. Seeing those isobars tightening rapidly resulting in some explosive cyclogenesis conditions is a worthy and fascinating alternative/substitute for this bland nothingness we've had to endure for what now seems like an eternity.

Is it just my imagination or have many of my fellow cold enthusiasts from Eire gone somewhat quiet these past few days. Understandable I suspect as a greenie high would be more beneficial to us rather than a Scandi high resulting in something tasty from Siberia for the majority of you guys, especially for those further towards the southeast. All I dare say we can best hope for is a seriously watered down version by the time any continental flow reaches our shores. Would this be an accurate assessment I wonder of where things stand right now?

Gone slightly the way of the pear again, possibly, this time with regards to potential longevity or more a case of lack of. Anyhow, the Irish Met office this morning in their output are going for a bitterly cold late Wed - Sat followed already by less cold conditions from Sun as antycylonic conditions move in from the Atlantic. Which basically means we can only hope the likes of the gfs control in its latter stages is onto something.

Systems tracking around the area of high pressure for those further northwest would probably suggest alright why Met Eireann in their latest update this morning are now talking about the high probability of this being a short cold snap from Sun-Tues inclusive with a return to less cold or even milder south westerlies by next Wed.