Newberryone

So long as it doesn't build from the Azores..Long live the turbo charged jet I say

Brrrrrrrrrrrrr Colder incursions aplenty to look forward to it would appear should this pick of the bunch verify.

Yes, it certainly appears to be a downgrade on the previous run but so long as it doesn't start to go down the route it had us on yesterdays 12 z for Christmas Day I shall remain upbeat.

I fully respect your point of view but hey, where's your sense of adventure. Seriously though, I for one am ecstatic with what the models are generally showing for the foreseeable, especially the gfs 12z. Some of these charts are so disturbed it's like we're about to venture into some unknown territory. Interestingly, a work colleague informed me earlier today that this very mobile Dec pattern is to be followed by brutally cold weather for Jan and Feb. We live in hope

Just six days ago who would have thought we'd be about to enter such a possible turbulent spell of weather as all the pointers then indicated strongly towards a continuation of the bartlett style setup. While many of these lows admittedly may come to very little if anything, I can't help but feel the potential for some significant windstorms is very real at this juncture. Even as far ahead as Sun week, Dec 22nd, despite the fact there's slightly more amplification, one need only look to the North Atlantic to see the next potential low heading out of Newfoundland and very little I would imagine to suggest it won't follow the same route as previous lows.

I would anticipate these being only transient ridges and therefore unlikely to lead us back in the near future to what we presently have..stagnation!

Don't get me wrong here, in one way I'm as disappointed as the next person here who may have been pinning all their hopes on something really cold having developed by now but by the same token I'm really looking forward to the jet moving further south and with it the possibility of a southwest/northeast flow hopefully bringing in intense lows as time progresses. Fingers crossed we don't see downgrades and backtracks on this particular theme in future runs.

Very deep low I grant you but I doubt it will have much if any impact for the vast majority of us as it's present track seems too far west/north west. Still, a week away so the projected path could change of course.

Please don't tell me you're referring to an azores/euro high? Phew..Santa of course

So glad to see the overall pattern change gaining momentum and long may it continue

Well at least perhaps that's one advantage we have here in Ireland being on the Atlantic's doorstep. Although the latest ecm op run doesn't seem to hold the same strong gale to storm force potential that it had yesterday. Systems being deflected far more northwest..unfortunately! Yesterday Today No doubt the Euro block will lead to further downgrades in Fi

I'm most definitely with you 100% on this one Richie in the hope that the Atlantic will finally gain the upper hand on this intolerable Euro high which has plagued the overall weather pattern now for what seems a lifetime. If we can't have cold then a raging Atlantic is more than a substitute, for me anyhow. I admit systems may as pointed out already by another post take a track between Scotland and Iceland but at least it looks a hell of a lot more promising than the stalemate situation we're in right now. Bring It On

Having had a rather stressful kind of day (not weather related btw) I'm certainly buoyed up by a certain number of posts on here tonight. Despite the fact we here in Ireland are less likely to enjoy or indeed benefit from a possible cold feed of easterlies off the continent than you guys, anything would be better than the now highly anticipated milder interlude predicted from Sun-Tues inclusive. I am so willing this chart to be the initial step in something really special down the line.

Probably an ill-informed take on these charts but if this is just to be a cold snap as opposed to spell I hope the GFS verifies for the Dec 10th ECM chart has us under the influence of what looks like a very boring anticyclone which I doubt would deliver anything other than average/mild temps by then

Re: missing data on the Gfs 06 op run I'm afraid I'd have to refer you to one of the more experienced and knowledgeable members on this forum in order to give you a comprehensive answer. However, you must admit this is not the first time this has been stated about this particular run. I can honestly say hardly a day goes by that this whole "lack of data issue" isn't brought up by someone or other.

I admire your optimism but hasn't it been stated a countless number of times that the Gfs 06 op run has the least amount of data hence overall less likely to verify. I'm sorry but my money's with Gibby on this one.. IMO despite some optimism this morning I can't see any excitement to be gained from the 10 day mean chart of ECM. High pressure to the SW means there is no way cold will last a day or two on that synopsis. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Overall nothing very special about these charts in terms of cold but at least when one compares the opening frames with the last, subtle differences certainly emerge. Trending a lot cooler as we progress through next week although the Azores high never too far from view as highlighted on Dec 6th

For a third time as in the high moving back in over us yet again? I suspect that's what you mean and so leading to the winter of our discontent.

Judging by today's Farming Weatherline outlook it could be a case of one step forward and two back for those seeking anything cold in the short to medium term. This is clearly highlighted by these two charts. To be fair and as pointed out by meteorologist Evelyn Cusack, precise details could change. Think this was made more as a reference to how next weekend might pan out.

Ms Cusack's a legend in her own right. And to be fair while it may disappoint most coldies one has to take on board with a note of acceptance everything she had to say.

Apart from a small warm blip next week, models are showing very much 'average conditions' out to FI which is around T144/T168 Precisely, as you say, average conditions and so nothing to get too excited about.

Really is a rollercoaster ride at the moment with some models toying with the idea of mid Atlantic pressure ridging north. Only problem being this trend seems to be forever in the far flung reaches of never never land.

Home is where the heart is and I for one cannot argue with that. As autumn shades are fading fast and in light of the fact we're in for some frosty weather (not enough) I couldn't but whip out my digital camera in order to capture these images from where I live. Sorry mods for being off topic.

A tad extreme I would have thought considering it was such a high that overall gave us the great summer we had. Not that I'm pleased with today's models and the prospect of one taking up residence in a weeks time or so but surely in summer/early autumn one would have thought Uncle Bart would receive the red carpet treatment. I'm pretty sure even Frosty would back me up on this one

Simplistic view on my part I admit but comparing these two ECM 00z op charts would it seem to suggest the ensembles prediction of a rise in temps as highlighted above by the 25th could be on the money? In theory, how reliable are the ensembles? Shades of yellow and orange seem to be drawing very much closer by the 27th for sure.