Newberryone

An interesting enough evolution from Tues to Fri of next week on the 12z Ecm with a standoff between the Atlantic meeting tough resistance it has to be said from the block to the east. Wednesday looking potentially quite wet and windy for parts of Ireland. Further on, active Atlantic lows seem to be kept well to the northwest. Question remains though as to whether or not these are more general signs of a shift in emphasis from anticylonic to something more mobile.

Although a personal view I'm pretty confident it's representative of many on here when I say I hope this particular gfs run is NOT on the money. Summers last hurrah it may be, but heading for mid October Spanish plumes hold little appeal. Somewhat more palatable to me would be the latter frames of the overnight Ecm run, Day 10 for e.g If for no other reason a more mobile/active Atlantic profile would appear to be underway.

While many are probably tiring of this anticylonic spell and keenly watching developments to our northwest towards the latter half of next week, I personally wouldn’t be all that surprised judging by the latest Ecm day 10 chart if we weren’t about to see the all too familiar picture of a resurgence of high pressure from the southwest bringing yet more overall settled conditions. While admittedly verification stats for day 10 charts are relatively low it’s one to watch, especially for those who dislike cold and wet October’s

Anyone seeking active autumnal weather will no doubt be sorely disappointed and probably contemplating giving the forum a rest for the foreseeable if the latest overnight ecm run verifies. These charts indicative of a prolonged dry spell with a blocking high meandering around but going nowhere anytime soon. Pouring down here in County Cork as I type, but I suspect it'll be the last drop for quite some time to come.

Going by the latest Ecm run I think there’s little overall evidence of the jet stream being driven significantly further south, in fact it's looking distinctively anticylonic as we head on into next week with heights over the near continent keeping things rather benign and mild/warm for southern parts, at least.

I think it’s fair to say one can deduce from tonight’s charts is that Helene is definitely going to have far less of an impact early next week than originally thought with heights to the south weakening the system well in advance. Furthermore, anyone hoping for something really more autumnal may have to be very patient as tonight’s longer term prospects scream “Indian Summer”

Latest overnight run from the Ecm would certainly seem to suggest a far less unsettled latter stage compared to the previous run with heights to the south continuing to dominate. Any Atlantic influence really only being felt to the far off northwest and even here nothing overly unsettled. The run even manages to end on an all time high...Sorry ANYWEATHER!!

I’m not liking the fact the Azores high is being displaced more and more heading towards day 10 however.

Latter stages of overnight Ecm yet again giving a thumbs down to any hopes of a continuation of the heatwave beyond next weekend. This transition while slow in nature certainly seems to be gaining momentum. So something distinctly far more average compared to this week seems very likely now as we enter July.

You haven't been liaising with the Irish met people by any chance Alderc for despite their calling for a pronounced settled period from Thurs, disappointingly it has to be said they're only predicting temps to be in the mid to high teens. Hopefully this will be revised in the coming days to something far more favourable.

This would certainly seem to be the case with less likelihood now of a continuation of this warm/very warm continental airflow beyond the end of next week. Still lots of uncertainty around this timeframe but a relaxation of sorts re high temps does seem likely. At least it should become less oppressive for when trying to get a decent nights kip.

Judging by the overnight run from the Ecm and subsequently the lack of posts for over a 12 hr period it would appear this summation may be right on the money.

Here's hoping is right Gavin, however looking at the day ten chart one can't help but get the overall feeling there may not be much longevity attached to this more settled/warm interlude as that ominous looking feature to the west seems like at best reintroducing a cooler west to northwesterly airflow yet again with something akin to what we have at the moment.

I was just about to say the same thing. If this is a new theme/trend from the Ecm it will most definitely put to bed any notion of a White Easter. We’ve done very well in general with regards to cold and snow this past Winter season and now I for one would wholeheartedly welcome some nice Spring warmth.

Next week looking ordinarily chilly according to the latest Ecm run with daytime values typically in the 4-7 degrees Celsius range but potential for any further March extremities looking increasing unlikely now judging by days 9 and 10

Admittedly an absolutely fantastic evolution from Ecm again this morning but one needs to keep things in perspective owing to recent model output volatility. While the Irish met service are going with the colder theme from next Tues/Wed, they do stress and put much emphasis on the fact that there’s still a high degree of uncertainty regarding next week.

Ecm00z looking more progressive again with a lot of energy on the northern arm of the jet. Besides, frigid temps over Canada and North America usually does not bode well for us in terms of cold. A fueling of the jet stream ain’t something we want to be seeing with the clock already ticking on the winter of 17/18

Oh Ecm, whatever happened to the promise and the dream

There’s no disguising the fact that Day 10 of tonight’s Ecm is rather unpalatable to say the least. Only crumb of comfort is it's considerably outside the reliable timeframe. If you think the forum’s relatively quiet tonight, there would certainly be no threat of a server overload should that dreaded Azores high take up residence post day 10.

Happy New Year from the rebel county. Wk no 2 not starting out on such an inspiring note for coldies unfortunately this morning courtesy of an all too familiar Canadian vortex bulldozing through any aforementioned block. Only one run but hopefully not a trend setter.

Fortunately I was around and if my memory serves me correctly this setup gave this part of Ireland an appreciable fall of snow. Fond memories of waking up and opening the bedroom curtains and seeing the garden hedges weighed down with snow. Hopefully any potential wintry spell will now gain momentum in the coming days and deliver what most coldies crave

Hopefully a lack of data it is, for only one thing could be responsible for deflecting such an intense depression that far north and that’s those heights down to the southwest. Wouldn’t want such heights to become a precursor to any potential Bartlett style setup as we head into Jan. Anyhow, that as it may be, may I take this opportunity of wishing all my fellow netweather enthusiasts a happy and peaceful Christmas as well as every good wish for 2018.

Wasn't meant to be taken quite so literally BFTP. Ever hear of Tongue-in-cheek?

The PV obviously intent on setting up residence for Dec in its usual location so. ?

I don't think one can afford to become too complacent when especially the likes of the UKMet is not fully supportive of any potential reload post 144. Energy spilling over the top of this high come Fri or so could very well be a game changer as time and time again the ECM has this bias for over amplifying, especially in the latter stages. Hopefully just a blip, but met office here already talking about it becoming less cold by the end of the week.