John Badrick

But they only take us to mid Jan!! (Which are almost pointless after 10 days at a push anyway) If you read his original thoughts he talks about cold end of Feb/March

So what about your cold late Feb/March prediction?? Can you explain why you think it won't be cold for the next 7/8 weeks and what models back this theory???

There is a hint things could lead to blocking (see strat thread for models) This is a model thread, so do you have any models to back up your theory???

Tell us something we don't know....ok we get it zonal.. windy, rain, maybe snow on hills in Scotland, not cold, not mild...yawn, yawn, yawn..I, ve lost count of how maby people have said this today, we know what models are saying no need to repeat!!!

Zonal is just the model default pattern, everything goes to default before a pattern change...ie SSW!!!! So no need to panic

Wasn't that windy in cornwall..

Yes but a lot of the coldest winters occurred without the aid of a SSW, so to write off half of the winters is a bit premature

Oh what a knob!!!!!!

So if the OPI is correct for Jan then are the Met office dead in the water?? Game on I say!!!

A lot happening in the strat in next 8-10 days, PV taking a bit of a battering, totally different state to what it was this time last year, so we can't really trust what the charts are saying tropospherically, so to write off Jan is very premature and very negative!!!

Is it the start of the down grades though???. Seen it many a time before, the excitement, then the down beat and disappointment. I've been a member on here for a couple of years now, but never seen charts upgrade to snowier solutions. They have always sniffed out cold solutions that look amazing, but by the time we get to D.0 they are always a major watered down version

We are only half way through December, still over two weeks left, so your statement is too early, come back in 16 DAYS!

Lowland north-eastern areas of Britain from eastern Scotland through NE England to Yorkshire and Lincolnshire will be sheltered by hills and mountains to the west and so will be much drier; four inches of rain or somewhat less is likely in all these regions even through the westerly winds will blow very strongly at times. This means rainfall totals will be close to the February norm in all these locations; although Lincolnshire and Aberdeenshire may be a little wetter than normal due to the absence of hills to the west of much of Lincolnshire and the proximity of Aberdeenshire being closer to deep depressions in the subarctic. The English Midlands and southern counties of England will have between three and five inches of rainfall during February due to the unsettled regimé prevailing throughout the month; Devon, Cornwall and South Wales will get five to eight inches of rainfall due to greater exposure and proximity to the North Atlantic: The southern regions of Britain will-overall- be less wet than further north because of the distance from the depression tracks but even across the south mean monthly rainfall will be some 20 to 50% above normal for the month in most areas. That said, February 2015 will be nothing like the wash-out of February 2014 anywhere,- so there should not be a repeat of the persistent flooding that plagued parts of Somerset, Devon and the Thames Valley last winter.

Hi Recretos, can you give us an idea how you think the 14/15 season will pan out? I know its speculation, but it would be good to know you're thoughts Cheers JB

Does anyone have a link to the OPI team's UK/Europe forecast for last year? I know they got the US forecast spot on, but how did they do with Europe? Giving that the OPI last year was very positive, you'd have thought they would have got it spot on and forecast a predominantly zonal winter for the uk

Thanks for the info BFTV

Just a quick question. Does anyone know if there has been any severely cold winters during high solar activity (solar max or Near) in the last 100 years or so? People talk about high solar activity this year effecting the winter, will it make a difference? Does history hold any clues?

As promised, update from atyrau kazakhstan first snow of the season this morning. This is way ahead of last years first snow of December 3rd 2013. It was very mild right the way through November 2013. This year has been notably different to 2013/14, similar to November 2010

You can't say P o s t m o d e r n w i n t e r on here it comes out as large teapot hahaha

Most of the more knowledgeable folk in the strat thread are pointing out that the teleconnections this year are contradicting the seasonal long range data. They are basically saying the condition of the PV and the forecast for the strat are different to last year and so more favorable for cold conditions for us. If things continue this way strat wise then we should see a change to a more colder outlook in the November update of the long range seasonal models. "chionomaniac, on 16 Oct 2014 - Why is it that I think that we should ignore the seasonal model forecasts this year? - they are so far out of sync with the background teleconnective analogues. ​Hope you don't mind me quoting you Chino

So basically expect the opposite to what its showing

thanks for the reply karyo Yes been looking at the OPI thread and it makes for interesting read, a bit down beat recently (OPI going more Positive) however due to uncertainties in a relatively new theory. Think we may need to wait until the end of October on that one.

Hi Karyo, in your honest opinion, do you think all this volcanic activity will having any bearing on the NH winter this year? Or would there need to be a bigger sudden eruption to create an ash cloud for there to have any sufficient impact? When are the general thoughts on here, thank you JB

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