John Badrick

So why does GFS go to default mode? Even though it wasn't the answer last cold shot, could be right this time?

Are we going with the GFS

Have you had any this time around?

Enjoy your snow you lot, but spare a moment for your poor south western brothers on the Devon Cornwall border who got sodding rain again, we have to go and search for our snow tomorrow, will only have to drive up the road....but still would be nice to have it in the back yard....anyone think us lotdown here might get some more next chance we get?

Thank you maw368. I was looking at space weather.com for updates and it just seemed that there had been a rise in SSnumbers and more activity in recent days. Will check out that website. Cheers

Just a quick question for anyone who has information. Will the sudden rise in the suns activity in the last couple of days have any impact on the SSW effects and our weather??? just looking on spaceweather.com the suns dic is covered in sunspots. somthing we haven't seen in a while, so a bit concerned this will have an impact on the weather we will recieve in the next couple of weeks...cheers hahahaha!!!! *DISC

Happy New year everyone.......Now at long last lets have our winter!!!!

A bit more encouraging from the seasonal forecasts from the Met, especially for January. Plenty of uncertainties from there on... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/c ... mp-JFM.pdf SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE: For January as a whole below-average UK-mean temperatures are somewhat more likely than above-average, although there is considerable uncertainty. Similarly, snow and ice may occur more often than they do in an average January. For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely. Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 15% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%) CONTEXT: Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain in a neutral El Niňo/La Niňa phase, and this is expected to continue through the forecast period. This phase has no known predictive value for northwest Europe. Meanwhile sea temperatures in the northwest Atlantic remain well above average. This is especially true around Newfoundland, where observations show that unusually high values – more than 4 degrees Celsius above average - extend to considerable depth. Around much of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures are also above average. Similarly, Arctic sea ice extent, although undergoing the usual winter-time increase, remains at a near-record low level for the time of year, with the Barents Sea northeast of Scandinavia showing a particularly large deficit. Although we are dealing here with an emerging area of scientific research there are suggestions that the aforementioned patterns can favour blocked weather types that bring cold northerly or easterly winds to northwest Europe. Computer forecast models show considerable spread in their handling of the weather in the January-February-March period, although the new high resolution model just introduced at the Met Office, which exhibits more skill in forecast reruns for the past, favours cold conditions over warm during January. Some model scenarios suggest that during January the UK could be the battleground between cold air of Scandinavian or Russian origins, and mild Atlantic air, meaning that substantial changes in weather type are quite possible, although equally one or other type could prevail. Some heavy snow can be expected at the boundary between the warm and cold air, although whether that would be over the UK is far from clear. As we move into February and March mild westerly or southwesterly winds become more likely, although cold outbreaks are still possible. The forecast curves in Figure T2 reflect all of the above, showing a shift towards colder-than-average values for January, and a structure that is close to climatology for January-February-March as a whole. On the left panel of Figure T2 note also how the bulk of the pink forecast points lie below last year’s value (labelled 2012), suggesting a high probability that January will be colder than last year.

Never feel sorry for it, he's the bully in the play ground, that's just about to get a taste of his own medicine

that's My point the models, ensembles etc are only worth looking at short term, average December weather for 5 days maybe( not sure why people keep using the word shocking!! To me this is normal winter weather, shocking weather would be 20 degrees + or 20 degrees below) I refuse to take anything the models, ensembles say after 5 days as gospel. Paul T the bigger picture can change in an instant, a little change here and there can result in a big change all together

So here we are again.......when models showing freezing temps and snow for all we all get over excited and believe them as gospel. That didn't happen of course..Now models saying the complete opposite and we may have BBQ weather in January in a matter of days and we all get deprest. After reading models during last two weeks We must, must NOT take them seriously after 5 days. People saying its going to be mild over Christmas because the model say so, or its not going to be cold until 2014, or we are going to have blizzard conditions in February are just stupid. Looking at he bigger picture is more important

One word DEFAULT!!!!UK default is rain, wind and 10 degrees. We must hit default in between proper winter weather. We are in default at the moment but it won't last.

10-14 days? You can not be serious. that is a life time in weather. Not even the most experienced forecasters can be confident 5 days out in these unpredictable times. Serious cold could, or could not be just around the corner, please don't make so confident statements, when frankly they are not true!

thanks for pointing that out....

Iam no MOD but please stay on topic, there re other websites for this surely!!!

Er what?? We Are NOT even half way through November. Have I fallen asleep and woken up in December or something...we are still over 2 weeks away from winter even starting. I think your getting ahead of yourself if you think it's December. Things are looking fine for autumn.

Can you put me on the map please, or do I have to wait until next year?

Sorry Phil and bobby dog I was looking at the thoughts on the prospects further down the line. I think we all know what to expect in the near fututure, MILD (not mild really just a little less colder than recently), yes we know, it's NOV 30th onwards we are really interested in what, looking at the models can we expect?

So for newbies why not state the period covered?? On another note Gibby, I am interested on your thoughts of the longer term, what's your thoughts on our overall winter prospects??

And there's our potential

So don't worry the potential for cold and snow is stille there for the near future

For any newbies reading this I think this sentence should start " FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD if your looking for cold weather then don't look at tonight's output" because anyone new looking at this thread will think we are in for a mild start to winter

it worked for me

The METO seem to think theres potential for somthing later on in the month, so i believe they have seen somthing that we have not!

Very well said!!!!