John Badrick

My parents live in a place called Atarau, Kazakhstan. They send me weather updates for their location everyday. My dad walks across a big river everyday to get to work.in the summer he uses the bridge, in the winter he just walks on the ice. Last year the river froze quite late in the year and they didn't have much snow. I remember he was sending me updates during the end if October and it was still very warm, unusually warm for the time of year.I have just received an update from him saying it's starting to get cold-1 this morning. I know Kazakhstan is a little further south than we want the snow advance, but 2010/11 they had am amazing winter(pic was taken in a town garden 2010) so I will update when their river freezes and the snow hits.

If there was evidence of that happening what would it be this far out if any at all

Its still winter here and im in Cornwall. Infact last couple of days its been colder than winter, frosts and cold fog, no t-shirts and shorts, still wraped up in coats and scarfs, not looking at all summery in the forecast either, in fact it looks more wintry, with snow potential:-)

Each to their own I suppose, I for one would much rather a repeat of march 2013. Remember it is more likely to snow at Easter than Christmas and March 2012 was followed by the one of the wettest summers on record. March 2013 was followed by a lovely long, warm summer. I know which one I would choose to repeat,take your pick. so I will be checking posters who are still interested and searching for wintry potential in the charts.

The last two posts from Purga and Phil nw totally contradict each other. One is sating no sight at all of anything wintry and the other is saying chance of widespread snow. For anyone coming on here to check what the models are showing its difficult to know what the hell is going on. Who do you believe, how can you get completely different outcomes

The daffodils have been out for two Weeks already here

Any forecast ideas for March/April Ian?Late cold, or warm spring? your thoughts are much appriciated.

Yes aSSW in early Feb perhaps? 6th Feb may herald that Major change as Ed has eluded to over in the strat thread. I think the word for this winter, however annoying it may be PATIENCE

You know the outlook is poor for cold weather when even frosty hasn't got anthing positive to say

I know who is unbiased, but what about the new people to the forum who are not aware of the more experienced and less biased

I know there's cold/mild bias but it's ridiculous this morning, how can you interpret the models so differently

It's very confusing for newbies reading posts on this thread today...one post lots of potential next post no hope...who are people ment to believe

Really? I thought he was forecasting record mild temperatures in December. He said it would be 15 c on Christmas Day. Well it ain't be mild here (Cornwall). It's been cold with wintry showers colder. than the last couple of years. So he was way off the mark

Only a couple of pixels away now

This is good....I always believe in CC s thoughts, even when other people think mil dish

Good forecast Sam, hope this comes off...

]If I'm reading these charts correct then they are actually quite good if you want cold.. Remember the colors represent percentage so if you look at the bottom chart ( probability of DJF being below normal temperature) south of the Uk and much of Western Europe has.60-80 % probability being below normal temps. Also the top chart ( probability of being above normal temps) much of the area above uk Greenland, pole etc has a probability of 80- 100 % of being above normal temps! which may imply blocking, so a good update from the Met o if you want cold.....I think, correct me if I'm wronghttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-probTies in with Simon keeling video of a cold blocked December

If I'm reading these charts correct then they are actually quite good if you want cold.. Remember the colors represent percentage so if you look at the bottom chart ( probability of DJF being below normal temperature) south of the Uk and much of Western Europe has.60-80 % probability being below normal temps. Also the top chart ( probability of being above normal temps) much of the area above uk Greenland, pole etc has a probability of 80- 100 % of being above normal temps! which may imply blocking, so a good update from the Met o if you want cold.....I think, correct me if I'm wronghttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-probTies in with Simon keeling video of a cold blocked December

What has a larger teapot got to do with it?

Mods why????? Is this happening??

Why will it not allow me to write post even larger teapot POST MODERN

Maybe a new era of forecasting is needed for the new post even larger teapot....

Everything is going against a cold winter....but the colder snap ahead wasn't predicted and goes against all mild signals...so this could be the case for the theme for this winter: a mild outlook but cold Synoptics rule the roost.... overall a forecasters nightmare

Maybe we need an uptake in solar activity?

Was a bit disappointed when I realized you were a bloke!!!!