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John Badrick

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    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    @John Badrick, There hasn't been any increase in activity on the sun. The sun as of today is still at low level activity as it has been in quite some time. There are sunspots visible on the disc but non of them are magnetically complex at this time. Check SolarHam website for reliable up to date information on solar activity:

    www.solarham.net

    The current activity is still in a nose dive as can be seen in the graph updated by Nasa this week. They have been forced to reduce their cycle count prediction after increasing it to 72 a few months back:

    http://solarscience....v/predict.shtml

    Thank you maw368. I was looking at space weather.com for updates and it just seemed that there had been a rise in SSnumbers and more activity in recent days. Will check out that website. Cheers
    • Like 1

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Badrick

    Just a quick question for anyone who has information. Will the sudden rise in the suns activity in the last couple of days have any impact on the SSW effects and our weather??? just looking on spaceweather.com the suns dic is covered in sunspots. somthing we haven't seen in a while, so a bit concerned this will have an impact on the weather we will recieve in the next couple of weeks...cheers

    hahahaha!!!!

    *DISC

    • Like 1

    METO UK Further Outlook 16 Day To 30 Forecast

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A bit more encouraging from the seasonal forecasts from the Met, especially for January. Plenty of uncertainties from there on...

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/c ... mp-JFM.pdf

    SUMMARY - TEMPERATURE:

    For January as a whole below-average UK-mean temperatures are somewhat more likely than above-average, although there is considerable uncertainty. Similarly, snow and ice may occur more often than they do in an average January.

    For February and March the range of possible outcomes is also very broad, although above-average UK-mean temperatures become more likely.

    Overall, the probability that the UK-mean temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 15% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%)

    CONTEXT:

    Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain in a neutral El Niňo/La Niňa phase, and this is expected to continue through the forecast period. This phase has no known predictive value for northwest Europe.

    Meanwhile sea temperatures in the northwest Atlantic remain well above average. This is especially true around Newfoundland, where observations show that unusually high values – more than 4 degrees Celsius above average - extend to considerable depth. Around much of the Arctic, sea surface temperatures are also above average. Similarly, Arctic sea ice extent, although undergoing the usual winter-time increase, remains at a near-record low level for the time of year, with the Barents Sea northeast of Scandinavia showing a particularly large deficit. Although we are dealing here with an emerging area of scientific research there are suggestions that the aforementioned patterns can favour blocked weather types that bring cold northerly or easterly winds to northwest Europe.

    Computer forecast models show considerable spread in their handling of the weather in the January-February-March period, although the new high resolution model just introduced at the Met Office, which exhibits more skill in forecast reruns for the past, favours cold conditions over warm during January.

    Some model scenarios suggest that during January the UK could be the battleground between cold air of Scandinavian or Russian origins, and mild Atlantic air, meaning that substantial changes in weather type are quite possible, although equally one or other type could prevail. Some heavy snow can be expected at the boundary between the warm and cold air, although whether that would be over the UK is far from clear. As we move into February and March mild westerly or southwesterly winds become more likely, although cold outbreaks are still possible.

    The forecast curves in Figure T2 reflect all of the above, showing a shift towards colder-than-average values for January, and a structure that is close to climatology for January-February-March as a whole. On the left panel of Figure T2 note also how the bulk of the pink forecast points lie below last year’s value (labelled 2012), suggesting a high probability that January will be colder than last year.

    Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Trouble is John we do look at the bigger picture; the bigger picture is looking at ALL models, ALL ensembles and ALL available maps and graphs..... and at the moment they ALL look shocking!

    that's My point the models, ensembles etc are only worth looking at short term, average December weather for 5 days maybe( not sure why people keep using the word shocking!! To me this is normal winter weather, shocking weather would be 20 degrees + or 20 degrees below) I refuse to take anything the models, ensembles say after 5 days as gospel. Paul T the bigger picture can change in an instant, a little change here and there can result in a big change all together

    Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So here we are again.......when models showing freezing temps and snow for all we all get over excited and believe them as gospel. That didn't happen of course..Now models saying the complete opposite and we may have BBQ weather in January in a matter of days and we all get deprest.

    After reading models during last two weeks We must, must NOT take them seriously after 5 days. People saying its going to be mild over Christmas because the model say so, or its not going to be cold until 2014, or we are going to have blizzard conditions in February are just stupid. Looking at he bigger picture is more important

    Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    No- it's not possible to write of a whole month at a time and it's extremely foolish to do so.

    To the poster saying it's based on two model runs......I've been steadfast in what I'm saying since October; I remember Steve Murr posting a reply telling me not to count my chickens. So I'm sorry but it's a view I've had for a while......feel free to check the archives where I explicitly said increasingly zonal through November and into December with the chance of mid lat high affecting the UK for a time towards the latter end of this period! That was 4-5 weeks ago.

    I think it pertinent to clarify I'm not ruling out cold because it will be. What I am ruling out in the next 10-14 days is a widespread prolonged cold spell with widespread snow not restricted to land of elevation and consecutive days of upper air temps below -5. I really can't be any more concise than that.

    10-14 days? You can not be serious. that is a life time in weather. Not even the most experienced forecasters can be confident 5 days out in these unpredictable times. Serious cold could, or could not be just around the corner, please don't make so confident statements, when frankly they are not true!

    Model Output Discussion 12z 30/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Ahhhhhh December '09......now that was a cold December with 'proper' blocking, along with the first half of the Jan that followed. Magical time that good.gif We are, sadly, a fair way from that in the next 10 days or so.

    Weighing up what I've seen today, nothing has really persuaded me that we won't see a mid lat high set up in 7-10 days time,dictating the UK's weather.

    thanks for pointing that out....

    Winter 2012/13 - Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Badrick

    Well, the Met Office LR Projections, have pretty much followed my own line of thinking for this Winter...of course it's still only December, so there's plenty of time for thing to change....but even the most hardy cold lover has got to admit that things are not looking good.

    .

    Er what?? We Are NOT even half way through November. Have I fallen asleep and woken up in December or something...we are still over 2 weeks away from winter even starting. I think your getting ahead of yourself if you think it's December. Things are looking fine for autumn.

    Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    No as most people know I only ever comment on the period covered by the output and that ends on the 26th November and that's 5 days short of the start of Winter. The whole output tonight does not show any meaningful outbreak of cold within the mentioned period so if I said 'at the start of the period' it would be perceived that the second part of the output was or going to become cold.

    So for newbies why not state the period covered?? On another note Gibby, I am interested on your thoughts of the longer term, what's your thoughts on our overall winter prospects??

    Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Badrick

    Good evening. Here is the evening report of the 12zs for Saturday 10th September 2012 2012.

    All models are fairly clear on where we go weatherwise in the coming 5-6 days. The current showery and chilly Westerly flow will weaken quickly over the coming 24 hours with a rather chilly but dry spell inland tomorrow. After a frost tomorrow night with patchy fog a warm front is shown to move NE over the UK through Monday. It will become steadily milder everywhere through the latter half of the day. Through the middle days of the week the weather will develop a NW/SE split with the North and West seeing cloudy and mild conditions continuing with occasional rain. In the South and East dry weather will predominate and with a Southerly feed it could well become very mild with 15C possible in any brightness in the SE. Nights will be mild too but some fog may form then and may prove slow to clear through the daytime.

    GFS then shows a weak cold front crossing East next weekend but with High pressure to the SE this quickly dissolves to no more than thicker cloud before slightly brighter conditions develop over Sunday. Further North and West the Westerly flow will still be in evidence with more extensive cloud and rain at times though still relatively mild. In the following week further troughs cross East still relatively weak in the South with some rain for all. it's not until later in FI that Low pressure tightens it's grip on all of the UK's weather by delivering strong winds and rain followed by markedly colder conditions with wintry showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow deep in FI.

    The GFS Ensembles show a marked mild spell coming up this week with little rainfall for Southern locations. With time Low pressure regains control even in the South with uppers gently falling back towards the long term mean for this stage in November. The operational run was a cold outlier towards the end of the run and with only one other member falling below -5C through the entire run I think that Winter remains on hold tonight.

    The Jet Stream shows a Southward moving flow West of Britain on the Eastern flank of the ridging flow. This collapses SE across the UK in the coming days before a more flat pattern develops with the Jet sliding gently Northwards towards Scotland in a week's time.

    UKMO for noon on Friday shows a European Anticyclone keeping Western Europe unseasonably mild and dry and some of this affects Eastern Britain too. In the West and particularly the SW Low pressure lies close to NW Spain and Biscay and throws sufficient energy North to affect parts of the SW of England and Wales with some rain although even here it will be mild.

    ECM too shows a trough just to the West with a gntle and very mild Southerly feed over the UK. It shows more energy to the NW making things windier and wetter here as well as the possibility of rain over Western England and Wales. Later in the run the trough moves East carrying rain with it and lowering temperatures to nearer normal values next weekend. Towards the end of the run Low pressure winds up to the NW of the UK with gales and heavy rain sweeping NE across these parts while High pressure stays close to the SE meaning it takes quite a while for any appreciable rainfall to arrive here in what is still a mild SW flow.

    In Summary tonight it's a case of if your looking for cold weather then don't look at tonight's output. From start to beyond the perimeters of the reliable time frame the weather and pattern is set. High pressure is setting up shop close to the East and SE of the UK feeding gentle but very mild air North through the middle and end of the working week. There are signs of a degrading of the pattern somewhat as we move through next weekend with GFS and ECM showing weak fronts crossing East scaling back the mildness in the South but the pattern thereafter is hardly condusive to cold conditions with normal late Autumn weather of wind and rain on offer from GFS with an olive branch way out in outer FI while ECM keeps us in a basic North/South setup behind an active cold front next Monday with benign conditions following for most Southern areas in respectable temperatures with the continuation of the unsettled, breezy and wetter conditions in the North.

    For any newbies reading this I think this sentence should start " FOR THE START OF THIS PERIOD if your looking for cold weather then don't look at tonight's output" because anyone new looking at this thread will think we are in for a mild start to winter

    Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    On the Whole I would agree with that, the trend is away from the deep and prolonged cold it was showing, but I wouldn't say it's gunning for Mild, if anything it's trending towards slightly below - average , here's the current chart for the very first day of Winter...obviously it'll change..but I do take your point on board, it's delaying the cold, keeps pushing it back all the time, and when that happens I start to get concerned, for weeks upon end it was showing a decent cold spell from Mid - Late November , but when Mid November started to get to the beginning of the CFS run, as opposed to the end, it watered it all down...hopefully the same WON'T happen with the early December prognosis...but I am not convinced

    1st_Dec.gif

    The METO seem to think theres potential for somthing later on in the month, so i believe they have seen somthing that we have not!

    Model Output Discussion 12z 07/11/2012

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Badrick

    I love reading all the views on here, and I do get hopeful about the ones with a cold outlook and fearful about the ones with a mild outlook.

    But I window shop only and don't buy anything more than ten days ahead.

    Go back to the 16th April this year, and to this BBC headline about the drought

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-17690389

    A month later we were wondering if the rain was ever going to end, four months later we were thinking it wasn

    But not long before it broke, I don't think anyone interpreting the signals or the output of the models foresaw the extent to which it would.

    There's some fantastic knowledge in here, used to produce different interpretations. But the one thing that we can be certain of is that no one can be certain what's going to be happen three weeks away.

    Very well said!!!!

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