John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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Anyone in here from Princetown/Devon? If it's going to snow in Cornwall/ Devon this ,I've been told is the place to be.. Was thinking of taking a drive up there tomorrow/Sunday with the sledge and kids was wondering if it would be worth the hour drive, anyone with any info much appreciated
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More snow possibilities moving south over the weekend
That's better, looking at the here and now and the good cold spell we are in rather worrying what's coming next.
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I think no, The OPI should have produced at lot earlier if it is to be believed a useful tool
However, they did say that it would more likely to prove there would be cold later in the season..my question would be if Feb and March turn out to be cold and snowy would that prove the negative OPI a good tool in predicting 2 out of 3/4 winter months being cold?I say 3/4 because I think March can be classed as a winter month
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just had a very light snow sleet shower temp now 2.6 c could have been more hail but it was very brief ,radar now beefing up out to our west /n west .
Hi Legritter, just seen your location, I went to Sidcot school did my ALevels 96-97 remember using trays from the canteen to sledge down the fields after heavy snow can't remember when exactly think it was winter 96. Remember there was always tension between people from the vill (winscombe) who used to fire fireworks at the school on bonfire night hahaha...those were the days!!
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You don't see this very often, a weather warning for snow in Scotland and cornwall with almost the rest of the uk clear! Is this a wish bone effect someone was talking about earlier. Can someone explain this???
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Will definitely hold you to that!!!I'd gladly eat my hat and film it for you if a channel low was to ever verify.
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Not liking this !!!! 1050mb - that won't shift in a hurry
16 days away, unlikely to verify!!!!
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The return of a SW/W airmass by the end of the week is a high probability now - with the current consistent output
The high Shannon entropy means nothing has a high probability at the moment, nothing is certain, so what's showing in 5/6 days time will chop and change
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First up, Happy New Year to all Weather Enthusiasts!
On balance I am pleased to note that my predictions for mild wet conditions in October and November were bourne out, the December cold snap did occur. It was cold over much of England (and Scotland) early in December and (especially) around the 12th and 13th of the month; also just after Christmas (28th to 30th) it was cold over much of the country with frosts and freezing fog in places. There was a weakening in the strength of the prevailing southwesterlies reaching the UK during these times, but I see that I was wrong about the details of how the cold spell would develop. I was not, therefore, predicting severe cold in Scotland in December (it dropped to -9C in the Highlands at one point, they also have more snow in the Cairngorms and NW Highlands together than in the Alps according to a recent news report!).
The cold spell I predicted would happen was to be a result of high-pressure building over Europe and extending over England; this would have brought cold easterlies or SE winds to England and a good deal of dry and frosty weather; I predicted Scotland would remain firmly under the influence of south-westerlies and stay mild (but wet and stormy). This has not happened because the high-pressure cells developed further west and the cold spells were the result of cold north-westerly airstreams from the sub-arctic. Following these north-westerlies high-pressure has tended to sink south across the UK with milder westerlies to the north moving in from the northwest across the whole country as the ridge of high-pressure moved south; then a few days later another incursion of cold sub-arctic air would arrive behind a depression and the whole pattern would repeat.
So this meant the whole country was cold at times; with the cold being the result of cold and unstable north-westerly airstreams sleet and snow fell widely (though it was seldom cold enough for it to lie for long periods). If the cold had been a result of high-pressure from Europe the weather would have been cold and frosty but the high-pressure would have supressed any precipitation (including, of course, snow).
As we go into January, and certainly looking at the BBC's long range forecast, they are predicting unsettled and stormy conditions but with short, colder interludes with snow showers in the North and night frosts. I predicted that, overall, January and February would be dominated by strong westelies, gales at times and wet (particularly in the North West). I also predicted a few sharp short-lived cold snaps that would being much colder conditions with snow in the North and Scotland and some sharp night frosts. Overall I predicted mean temperatures for both months would be a degree milder than usual in the South but near normal in northern Scotland. That this pattern looks likely to play out according to the BBC and Met Office forecasts is encouraging.
Ian
Hi Ian, your forecast is an interesting read and going quite well so far however you did say south/ south west would have very little cold and snow. Coming up to the Half way mark of proper winter and down here in Cornwall we have had around 6 days of severe frosts. A couple of days when it didn't get much above freezing so frost lingered all day. We had a covering of snow last night and looking at the charts there may well be more to come next week. Do you think the cold we are seeing in the charts now will be prolonged going in to February or will we see a milder outlook shortly? (i.e. mild/ warm spring)
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A quick question for the knowledgeable-If the cold charts we are seeinging tropospherically in recent days are a result of the warming/split we saw earlier this month, would we be seeing even colder charts for a longer period if we had a full SSW event? If so when the PV reorganises will we see a more zonal/milder outlook for the uk going into February?
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Those who wrote off winter must be feeling pretty embarrassed now
Some stunning charts, frontal snow, sliders, easterly, all in FI admittedly, but the trend is for colder weather
The cold heart of winter is coming
Be careful, the cold hasn't happened yet!!
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Good to see some growing broad agreement now by late Jan between EC products, UKMO-GLOSEA and now NCEP modelling for prospects of a more settled, anticyclonic flavour to finish the month and possibly on into early Feb. Flow direction hard to call eventually (perhaps transition into fog/freezing fog/frost territory before a shift to anticyclonic W/SW'ly as per EC Monthly?). Either way, growing consensus on losing the deep cyclonicity... eventually!
So after frosty period, spring like conditions??
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I remember a time when the two graphs below would have caused great excitement on this thread,with those temperatures shooting up over the pole.
I also remember a certain Mr Holmes would predict a cold spell about 25 days after a big spike in 30 hpa temperatures....
This looks very significant....so is this not going to impact us in any way??? Or is this is why the US are getting very cold??
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There does appear to be a risk of snow on the northern edge of that potential storm, but the heavy rain and damaging winds would be of greater concern, plus if it takes a similar track to the parallel run then there would be no snow risk altogether. The NW forecasts on there are based on the GFS data by the way.
@MP-R I think the feeling about these PM shots is very much dependent of whether you live in the east or west of the UK. For example here the forecast high for Sunday is 7C which is average and even more the coolest day of the next 7 or 8 days. Two thirds of them have forecast highs in double figures. On the other hand western areas with modest elevation could get a covering of snow Saturday night with even a dusting possible at low levels.
Thanks for reply CS
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Can someone explain to me, why, in around ten days time (according to the ten day forecast) for almost the first time snow is showing with a top (feels like) temp of 2 for Bude. Even though the models are looking poor for cold
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Looks to me that winter is over
On cue
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News from IF re latest UK Met:
fergieweather
New @metoffice data indicates no major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is likely to occur "in the forseeable future". Moreover (cont'd)04/01/2015 19:51
fergieweather
Cont'd... they note their monthly and seasonal modelling from back on Dec 27 dismissed the prospect. They add that a... (cont'd)04/01/2015 19:53
fergieweather
Cont'd (3)...minor warming will be of minor significance, & resurgence of Polar Vortex/Polar Night Jet through nxt 2 weeks to 'near-normal'04/01/2015 19:57
fergieweather
(4) Finally, they add "The model ouput of other reputable forecasting organisations is also in agreement with the Met Office model trends."04/01/2015 19:59
fergieweather
(5) The @metoffice view re stratospheric situation was valid as of 1400hrs today. Clearly, the rest of winter cannot be forecast in detail.04/01/2015 20:03
I suppose that puts that to bed for this month.
Watch the "winters over" posts come in thick and fast after this bit of news
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Kevin I'm far from having any true expertise or credentials in solar influence's on earths climate ( complete ametuer)
All I've deduced is from those that have and the data recorded from those scientists that have put the findings out there.
An uptick in Solar activity has been ongoing for the last 6 months. Sunspots, AP index and Radio flux all on the up going into this 2014/15 winter season. Sunspot numbers have totalled 90- 125 daily since October 2014.
Even with a -QBO and high October Eurasian snow cover, it can be overwritten by this increased solar activity if sustained over a certain period of time.
Had we not been in a -QBO period I would have expected a predominantly westerly mobile winter with a strong Greenland PV.
The -QBO is merely acting as a substantial block and disrupting PV more than could be expected during this stage of solar cycle 24.
Your knowledge of British weather history is second to none. Of every historic extreme British winter they all came around the solar minimum. Same for solar max in summer the highest temps come in these years. NW Europe is clearly affected by solar output cold and warm.
1978/79 came after a period of combined cold PDO and AMO where world temps had dropped some 0.8 C.
I wish I knew exacts in references to low pressure system above Kara Sea. Extra heat to tropics creating gravity waves , preventing preferred MJO phase and allowing Kara Sea LP to breakout.
AMO flip forecasted within 4-5 years, solar cycle 25 to commence 2019, then which ever year has a -QBO, we in theory will have another extreme once in a lifetime British winter.
I very much agree with this post.we may have to wait a few years, until the sun enters it's long slumber, but have a feeling the wait will be worth it.. Very cold UK winters may continue from 2017/18 onwards. All the positive background signals in favour of a cold winter this year (high SAI, very negative Opi, -QBO,good strat signals, busted up PV, etc) may have all been outweighed by the solar output. This is just my opinion and maybe brushed aside by the more knowledgeable folk in here, but if the next solar min is a deep one and our winters start getting colder again around 2018/19 then exciting weather forecasting times lie ahead
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Which mid-month? February, March or next December! lol Frosty do you know those stages of grief I think you're stuck in denial, I've moved onto acceptance. :smiliz19:
You're turning into the Mary Poppins of NW, far too happy and optimistic, but you do make me laugh, you can always find something good in the outputs.
If something appears within the T240hrs timeframe then I might get a bit more interested, if not I'm going to maintain my current miserable stance!
I think some of you could do with taking a break from looking at every single model run
It was November then and we had all winter ahead of us. Now we don't have that luxury.
No we have the luxury of having over 2/3 rds of it left
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The recent post xmas day cold spell didn't interest alot on here so you may as well call it mild for your legion of fans. :w00t:
The weather definitely interested me post xmas...gave us a real taste of winter down here in cornwall...three crisp fridget ice days, the likes we haven't seen since March 2013... Gave a real yearning for more
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Sorry I should have worded that differently- there has been no discussion with other experts over in the strat thread regarding no SSW.With due respect, Bluearmy is one of those experts. It was nice for him to update us on a busy day.
CFS week 3-4 anomalies:
wk3.wk4_20141230.z500.gifThis may well be they are busy on new years eve
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There is no longer a SSW predicted. ECM has backed off. Gfs hasn't forecast one. Given the current state of the strat, I think any strong reversal high up will show quite quickly on the trop modelling. Seems the ECM op strat modelling can be as over amped as the trop!
No news about this from the experts over in the strat thread, so this comment is a bit confusing
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At least we have a possible SSW to look forward to, just to observe it will be fun, if we benefit from it tropospherically will be a bonus too
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There are a lot of factors which are currently unfavourable to cold weather developing on our shores, one of these is the MJO which refuses to move to a phase favourable for blocking to develop in the Atlantic. Add to that whilst there is warming in the Stratosphere, there is no guarantee off a favourable split which could aid blocking on the Atlantic side of the pole.
Other factors which have muted the OPI/SAI signals have come from persistent low heights over north west Asia which prevents the Siberian high developing and extending its influence both north into the pole (wavebreaking) and west towards Europe.
So at this point we only have a potential split in the strat which could aid developing cold weather at this time. As we are looking at over a week away before we may see a split caused by warming over Greenland, there is no guarantee on this occurring yet and of course seeing the split maintain. The ECM looks best for this at the moment. I would say the first half of January at least is looking like being dominated by westerly winds and little chance of significant cold arriving. Beyond then we may see something if any stratospheric event leads to a quick response down in the troposphere, but again no guarantees on when this will arrive and of course the blocking could end up in the wrong place.
So week 1 looks like turning changeable with temperatures near or a little above normal. Week 2 looks likely to follow the same route albeit we could see something occur. Beyond this at the moment we can only go by the metoffice outlook, which suggests the only feasible route to cold at the moment is having high pressure set up near the UK to bring dry and frosty weather.
So week 3,4,5,6,7,8+ could be cold, not a bad position to be in really
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South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Thanks for the heads up ET, will check in the morning...Have you got a link to the web cam you mentioned?
Thanks again
JB