John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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Could the good synoptics appearing in the charts at the moment be due to the +QBO and the increase in solar activity?
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I don't think so...what charts are you looking at? Are you sure you are looking at the right date because the charts I'm looking at look like the complete oppositeSeems like its just one day of cold, Tues 19th, turns much milder all areas on Wednesday through to rest of week, after that is FI to me its just a northerly toppler
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Looking at my phone and People are asking me why I'm laughing to myself...I really can't be bothered to explain
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This is hilarious! !Yep we need some 'boom' charts Steve so Frosty can go into a chart posting frenzy....
Whilst Gav goes and cries into his cereal
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Thoughts on this chiono,recreto,interitus?I think warmer temperatures started to make a dig in from the opposite side of the pole though, there is not enough stratospheric ridging, the vortex looks stronger, the warming looks to be weakening before it makes an impact to my untrained eye.
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Is this a wind up??? Have I fallen asleep and woken up in mid February? Are we not still in the middle of autumn?The models are starting to look better in FI for a cool down towards mid month and then who knows progressively colder as we head in to the end of AUTUMN and colder still as we head in to proper WINTER.... "Winter is over" comments this early do my head in can you save them for March pleaseNever mind folks Winter 2014/15 WILL be the one!!
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Yes but then it turned mild for Christmas, best we have the mild now and then it turn colder a bit later, just like 2009 and 2010 both very mild autumns and awesome winters, don't care if it doesn't snow in October or even November wintry weather is best in winterThis time last year some parts of the UK were getting there first snowfall of the season (we did as well in Darlo) what a difference a year makes
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So Chiono, why is this year harder to call for a SSW than last year?, we have had a very cold pool early, isn't it possible we could have an early warming? Is The early wave breaking + MT normal?and could the initial effect on the PV be more profound. Maybe this could be an earlier sign for a SSW than what you were originally thinking? Or am I way ooff the mark with this train of thought?Nothing can be ruled out, John, but when looking at all likelihoods it is extremely unlikely to get a SSW in November. Remember, to achieve a technical SSW we need to see mean zonal mean winds reverse at 10 hPA at 60ºN. Even in Nov 1996 (which is sometimes reported as a SSW) the mean zonal winds never reversed - and this was a eQBO year. What can possibly occur though is tropospheric wave breaks into the lower strat similar to 2009. Again another tall order.SSW's have occured later in the season in some close matching years though and one of my favourite analogue winters for this winter is 1978/79. That year a CW and SSW were reported. The forecasted increase in vortex strength for November was actually something that I was expecting to see. The Asian MT is such a significant one though that we need to keep an eye on whether there is any lower stratospheric vortex effect. Autumn 2009 showed us that the lower stratospheric vortex is vulnerable to tropospheric attack before the main bulk of the polar stratosphere has cooled sufficiently and the upper vortex strength transfers its power downwards towards the trop.
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Chiono,Recretos and co, why not an early SSW this year? + w QBO and solar max.why do you think we may have a late SSW..I have a theory we have had a very cold summer arctic so we may have a sudden increase in the warmth up there in the arctic as its been so cold up there during summer months
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So because we have had a good Old British summer what about put it out there and say we are going to have a good Old British winter. Got a feeling the seasons are getting back to norm.my prediction then..progressively cooler... November will be cooler then turn colder towards the end of the month, December will be cold, January will be cold, February will be...errm cold, March 2014 will start of cold and get progressively warmer, April 2014 will be milder with showers...good old British weather, back to the old days
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could you give some info Roger on the ground breaking research and what influences the signals you're getting this far out. The snowmaggedon forecasts we get every year are usually explained by the suns influence on the jet sstream, I'm interested in how the opposite is forecast ie milder tHan everage.cheersI think the discussion was basically fair and it doesn't surprise me that one or two readers are more hostile than most, for one thing not everyone has been around for five years or longer and gone through the whole process here with the various long-range forecasts and how mine has actually fared relative to others. I think on that scale these are among the more reliable forecasts you're going to see most times, but I can't say in advance which time will be the one where the forecast lags behind its usual performance values and why, if I could, I would fix it in advance. I do recall that in 2009-10 there was a reader poll and my joint forecast with BFTP was given the highest rating. Anecdotally the same was said about the summer 2013 outlook. But neither of those was seen to be 100% accurate and there's always lots of room for improvement.
The point about the mild Christmas should probably be scaled down to a call for a very mild spell around Christmas, I mentioned record high values to give some context for how mild it could be, and I won't be surprised if it gets that mild but certainly something above 10 C is clearly indicated by the output. IIRC the call for Christmas last year was fairly accurate but it's a time of year when systems can be moving very rapidly and I think last year illustrated that even during the three-day period 24th to 26th there could be very rapid changes in temperature in some places. The output of course isn't on such a fine scale, it's predicting averages for 24-hour periods.
Anyway, this is ground-breaking research and as somebody once told me, ground-breaking is what people do just before you get lowered into your grave, so once again it's a take it or leave it situation.
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I think it's fair to relate him to someone who is being so specific, he is quoting dates which is ludicrous. Record mild temps on Christmas day or raging blizzards on Christmas day, two different forecast but with the same motive....trying to get a reaction!!! I have learnt over the years not to get sucked in and emotional, especially at such an early stage in Autumn.Listen to the more informative folk on here ie chiono,Recretos,SK,Lorenzo, Interitis,Johnholmes,CC,to name but a fewRJS has gone to great lengths to explain his methodology on this forum and doesn't make up BS excuses if things go wrong. He clearly doesn't bias his forecasts towards cold in order to appease the masses, but remains honest and sticks with what the data and his methods show.It's completely unfair to relate him to Madden.
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A bit more from Roger J Smith's winter thoughts, a rather mild Christmas day maybe even record breakingI tend to switch off and stop reading when forecasters start talking about specific dates, it's ridiculous specifying dates this far out as soon as a date is mentioned 2 months out a LR forecasters credibility drops, if someone thinks they can tell you what the temperature is going to be on Christmas Day 2 month's in advance, then they are just looking in to their crystal ballhttp://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html
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come on 2013!cursnow_asiaeurope (7).gif [url=http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=188866]ims2002290_asiaeurope (1).gif[/url
But unfortunately winter during 2002 wasn't that great for us in the UK, so in this case lots of early snow cover didn't make much difference for our winter.Why would it be different this year?
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The latest value: 6,796,978 km2 
(October 12, 2013)
But I thought low sea ice is contributing to colder winters for the UK, so if we want a cold winter here in the UK we would want to see less ice
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You are joking right? It is still October, I haven't fallen asleep and woken up in mid February 2014 have I??
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Just like the papers... Its the headlines that sell them. Madden is clearly in it for the money.
And he is also a lorry driver i think.
No he's not...you’re thinking of Mark Vogan (who, incidentally has good forcasting knowledge)
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The SSW was hot topic last year, even got to BBC, I reckon QBO will be flavour of the month this year and a very low solar max is a new spanner in the works, not seen in modern science
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As soon as the MET O say we are going to have cool wet summers for the next 10 years the opposite happens we have the warmest summer in 6 years
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What about the "respectable MET office" in my eyes they have made worse predictions Than James Madden, we seem to forget the terrible prediction of a mild winter of 2009/10, the BBQ Summers 2010+ and then when everything looks set for a cool wet summer of 2013+ for the next 10 years we have the warmest summer in 6 years. James Madden gets 1 winter forecast wrong......and people hate him.... I pay the met office through my hard earned cash through taxes.They get it so wrong but still people are not asking questions....this is so wrong!! Is it me? If James Madden gets it wrong everyone goes mental.You can choose to pay a couple of quid for his forecasts, we have no choice to pay for the MET office that everyone seem to agree with even when they get it so wrong. It is getting quite ridiculous, if the MET say it's going to be harsh winter I predict the warmest winter on record...ps I know the majority of this forum think JAmes Madden makes things up as he goes along and maybe he does, but what would you really go for this year a snowless winter like we should have in our ever warmer climate or a couple of decent Snow falls. (by the way my 5 year old daughter has seen more Snow than I did for a whole decade from the late 90s)It seems we get the same stuff every winter from Mr Madden
In the report he stats;
[*]Temperatures as low as -20c and below are forecast through-out December, January and February
[*]A white Christmas
[*]Early start to winter, exceptionally cold and snowy
Then It becomes very precise
[*]First significant snowfall likely in the period of November 23rd to 30th but it may be earlier
[*]Next main risk of snow is December 23rd to 31st
[*]And January 2014 could be similar to December 2010 maybe worse
Remember all the above is for Scotland and not England and Wales.
It must only be a matter of time now till the Daily Express get a front page headline similar to post 586
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wow look at this recovery going into normal territory
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I do not! I agree it wouldn't be long-lasting based on the 18z run and northerly potential, but compared to the zonal runs of late it is a considerable step in the direction of potential cold and what I've been expecting from January's chat on these forums. My own experience is that the best cold is usually in February.
Don't think a very cold Feb is going to happen this year I'm afraid, just hope models would show some dry days for a change
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Can't be arsed to talk about rain for the next 10 months and the sun we will never get....so see you next winter everyone xxx
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Do we now look for signs for spring in the models or a reload, not much hope in the SSW thread with the Canadian vortex being less favourable for us!!!!
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Ironic really if some forecasters are looking at low solar activity being a persecutor of cold winters