John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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After another record was broken in the uk this summer
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In the context of global warming, it doesn't help to examine just one location, as I'm sure you're aware. It makes that one location even less useful if you just examine one season, and even less useful again if you just look at one location, one season, and just a few years.
However, even taking a small nearby area like the CET region, the fingerprint of global warming is very much clear. The 3 warmest CET years have occurred in the last 9 years. Every season and every month shows a warming trend over both the entire record and in the last few decades.
Despite such an awful summer this year in places (Ireland even got it worse than Cornwall!), there has only been 1 summer CET below 15C in the last 10 years. Now, compare that to the 1980s, which had 5 summers below 15C, or the 1920s which had 6 under 15C, or the period of 1907 to 1916 which had 8 summers below 15C, 2 of which we less than 14C. Go back further to the early 19th century and you'll find 9 summers in a row below 15C from 1809 to 1817.
Really, despite some washout summers in recent years, they've remained remarkably free of lasting cool conditions.
Why no long hot summers though? Well, that's weather. Global warming can only do so much, we need the weather to work with us and stick high pressure over us or to our east, to warm up the continent and send pulses of heat across the UK.
We will get spells of warm, dry summers again just as we'll get mild wet ones. But just because our climate gets warmer, doesn't mean it will always be dry and hot.
So would you say in 15 years time in Cornwall, during the summer of 2030 I will be enjoying days of 35 degrees + or will I still be complaining that we didn't even reach 20 degrees?.snowness winters and hot summers were predicted back then, they didn't happen.my next question is when will I be feeling the effects of global warming that I'm reminded about everyday?
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OK, I know I get slammed for saying just because its not 30 degrees IMBY global warming is not happening, but if someone told me back in 2000 (when I truly believed we were heating up) the temp will not get any higher (in Cornwall, one of the mildest counties in the Uk) than a measly 20 degrees for the whole of July, August and much of June in 15 years time, during the summer of 2015 I would have laughed in their face. Global warming may be happening else where, but it sure aint happening here, where we are, our island, our home. If someone told me 15 years ago Cornwall will be enjoying 35 degrees+ temps and heat waves during the summer months I would have believed them. Its not happening!!! another summer has passed and yet again it has been cold and disappointing down here in Cornwall. On the plus side, they said we would be suffering endless droughts, my garden is looking lush , green and in full bloom!!!
P.S I know I will get the " But during global warming episodes you will naturally get local differences and anomalies" but my question is why am I not seeing long hot summers????(i'm not bitter or ought !!! just waiting for my 1976 style summer that I was promised during my life time)
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So following the below average trend, and the fact it has been worse than 2007-2012 summers, this winter could be sothing specialLooking likely all three months will end up below average here, unless the second half of August can produce something special. What has made it worse was the complete lack of heat in the spring as well, particularly May which failed to reach 20C once.
The statistic which really damns summer 2015 is that it has produced more sub 5C minima than 25C+ maxima. Not even any of the 2007-2012 lot managed that.
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Is that a good thing or bad thing for our UK winter? simple question really
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is that a good thing?
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12 more Glaciers that are growing !!!!
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/12-more-glaciers-that-havent-heard-the-news-about-global-warming
More evidence of glaciers around the world advancing, not retreating
http://iceagenow.info/category/glaciers-are-growing-around-the-world/
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Arctic ice thickness has increased over the last 8yrs according to Piomas http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/Bpiomas_plot_daily_heff.2sst.png Arctic ice is almost identical to 20yrs ago so were NSIDC get there information from ?.
This image says a lot. There really is not much difference in the amount of ice from 20 years ago and look at the difference in snow cover!! Staggering how much more snow there is this year than there was 20 years ago!! Wasn't the arctic meant to be snow and ice free 2 years ago ???
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Oops it appears that Alaska's Hubbard Glacier is expanding http://www.weather.com/science/environment/news/alaska-hubbard-glacier-growth .I will now proceed to duck, avoiding flack and such.
Good find!!!
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I think more data is needed before the scaremongering starts
A quote from Andrew Shepherd, a professor of Earth observation at Leeds University on the new findings:
“I think the new estimates of ice loss computed from them are far too high, because the glaciers in this sector just haven’t speeded up that much. It could be that a bigger chunk of the thinning is down to snowfall fluctuations than the authors have accounted for, and so I would be cautious about the new numbers until more information is to hand,â€
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If you answer my question you will get many of the answers to yours. I assume you do realise that what you are saying is exactly the same as the deniers meme that the current global warming is perfectly natural as the climate has always waxed and waned. A bit like saying smoking doesn't cause lung cancer because it existed before the mass smoking of cigarettes.
One important point, you say "What caused the natural phenomenon of glaciers to retreat before humans and our evil CO2." I find it quite astonishing that you think CO2 didn't exist prior to humans and that you appear not to realise that it played a vital role in past climate changes.
Okay I'll answer my own question. The extent of the LIA ice was driven there ultimately by Jupiter's (and somewhat by Saturn's) gravitational influences on Earth's orbital eccentricity and by Earth's spin axis obliquity cycle and precession of the spin axis.
But none of this is relevant to the current very fast loss of mass balance of the world's glaciers in which GW is a leading player. Of course if you consider the current rise of CO2 , higher than it's been for a couple of million years, not relevant to the warming, then I suspect we are both wasting our time.
Firstly, no need to be so patronising,obviously I know CO2 existed before humans. That is exactly my point! what I was trying to put across, but obviously you didn't get it.....CO2 existed naturally before humans were on the planet and in more abundance in past eras. So CO2 existed when our planet lost it's ice in the past naturally, a natural phenomenon. Secondly,through ice cores scientists have concluded that there is evidence of rapid short warming before ice ages, so my question is have we come to the end of that short rapid warming period and entering a major cooling? And yes I am saying warming and cooling of our planet is a natural phenomenon!!
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A couple of questions.
By the late the mid to late 19th century, glaciers were at their greatest elongation of the LIA. What was the natural phenomenon that caused the elongation and what is the relevance to the current situation? The last point applies to any period you wish to choose.
You state that there is nothing to suggest that recent retreat of glaciers is anything other than a natural phenomenon. That isn't good enough. The consensus of virtually all of the world's glaciologists is that AGW is playing a significant part in the mass balance loss of the worlds glaciers. And they have the benefit of ongoing detailed studies of the worlds glaciers which was impossible prior to the satellite era.
So to justify your statement explain why you refute all of this and also explain the mechanism of the natural phenomenon which is causing the mass balance loss. Or at least point me in the direction of the explanation.
Can we first answer the question: what was the mechanism of the natural phenomenon that has caused the expansion and retreat of glaciers on our planet for the last 100 million years? Or to word it differently, What caused the natural phenomenon of glaciers to retreat before humans and our evil C02? What caused the glaciers to retreat so much in the past that trees were growing in the arctic?
Can we not apply that natural phenomenon of the past glacier retreats to the one we are in right now?
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Sorry here's 1)Where's "1)"?
Is this your opinion or copied and pasted from somewhere else?
Any links or sources to back this up?
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2) Little Ice Age
The science is absolutely clear that there was a massive, worldwide expansion in glaciers during the Little Ice Age.
In Alaska, there is evidence of three separate glacial advances, in the 12th/13thC, 17th/18thC, and finally in the late 19thC. Study of the Prince William Sound, Alaska, show that Ice margins were generally close to the late LIA maximum position at the time of the first visits of scientific parties around the turn of the century [around 1900].
There is also plenty of evidence of a similar massive expansion of glaciers from Europe, Iceland, South America and New Zealand during the Little Ice Age. Studies of glaciers in Greenland and Iceland show that, in the 19thC, they reached their maximum extent since the ice age.
3) Medieval Warming
How do today’s glaciers compare to how they looked before the Little Ice Age set in?
There is physical evidence from Alaska that glaciers were smaller back in the Middle Ages than they are now.
As glaciers have been receding in recent years, remains of forest, carbon dated back to the Middle Ages, are being uncovered. These have been found at the Exit, Mendenhall and Ultramarine glaciers. At the Mendenhall, some tree remains have been dated back to 2000 years ago (the Roman Warming Period).
We find similar discoveries in Patagonian glaciers.
In all these cases, the glaciers must have terminated well uphill of the trees, which could not possibly have grown at the very edge of the ice, where they are situated now. It also seems extremely unlikely that there are not more trees to be found further up stream.
In short, there is nothing to suggest that recent retreat of glaciers is anything other than a natural phenomenon, or that their current size is unprecedented or unusual.
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Antarctica reaches record ice extent
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Antarctic sea ice reaches new record maximum
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Morning all
A definate shift towards the ECM runs of late from the UKMO 0z and GFS6z this morning, its possibly being proven as the correct way forward. Still time for change but strong signals still for a northerly incursion are there;
ECM:
UKMO:
Slightly further east with the trough but still not far away for T144. Much closer than it has been anyway to the ECM. No 850s available for UKMO unfortunately.
GFS:
48 hours behind the other two but goes the same way eventualy with the high backing west leaving us exposed to NW/N winds.
Still nothing mild showing up thats for sure, and as I said last night I dont expect my area to get much above 10c for the rest of March, but thats fine by me. Still plenty of time for that of course
Looks like Spring still on hold, winter hanging on
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So you think it's pointless looking at the above during the winter to give us some clues to what our winter may hold??? Trust me we will still be looking at them next winter? There is some kind of connection between the OPI and our winter, but clearly other factors combined will determine the outcome. More research needed, not a complete dismissal!!!umm ..SSTs, El Niño, La Nina, Siberian Snow index, Pattern matching, solar activity, warm octobers etc etc im sure there are plenty more that have been touted in the past none are proven to have a firm link with a good predictor of a cold winter
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Delete if you must mods, but I just wanted to express my frustration of how much comments completley contradict each other, the last 2 are a perfect example, we are in for cold snow and warm sunshine apparently
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Well, well, well looks like another predictor of a cold winter heads to the bin?
What are the others?
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ame="mushymanrob" post="3176865" timestamp="1425224418"]
No mushy my towel is thrown. The final straw for me was that debacle the other day but this isn't a moan, it's just acceptance and as you know mushy, between april and october we share similar views and it's just arrived a little early this year. I'm now hoping the upcoming anticyclonic outlook will bring a sunny high and pleasant temperatures, it's looking good, even the north looks like joining in as time goes on but next weekend shows a north west / south east split, heavy pulses of rain for the north west but drier and brighter for the south east and mild.
That's what I like to see frosty, a bit of reverse psychology!
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Jonboy is one of the many who correlate solar activity directly with weather conditions in the UK. The Maunder minimum a few hundred years ago resulted in the Little Ice Age and some snow lovers are hoping that the current lack of solar activity might be a precursor to something similar.
yes but this should not have much of an impact until around the turn of the decade, low solar activity now will have little, or no impact on our weather for the near future, so to get excited about it now is a premature I feel. We can start feeling the impact of low/ deep low solar activity when we are in solar min similar to 2008,09, but hopefully even more if the sun decides to hibernate
Rare September Heat Wave Scorches Europe
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Seems like the UK had different ideas this year