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John Badrick

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Posts posted by John Badrick

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

    Just in case anyone needed another dose of model confusion for tomorrow night, Netweather's own 18z Hi-res model takes the ppn down into Wales only tomorrow evening from the Irish Sea and even here it is light so pretty much another option on the table. This table is so full of options now, there is no room to sit around it and enjoy it properly. Like a christmas dinner, I am now tired and exhausted from all of the different foods and have been overloaded!

    I know the exact feeling, its like you cant be bothered with the festivities anymore and you want normality to resume 

    Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

    Fantastic debate today, Stewart, Steve, Tamara - great to see such a meeting of minds here. So different in approach, so absolutely impassioned to see the weather people want and examine the evolution - hat's off to you all.

    Love the fact that there are so many factors rolling around that can impact short term, medium term, mid range and long range.

    Wave One standing impact on vortex from El Nino
    Brutal chain reaction of the Kara High and previous wave break on boxing day - this is a beauty complete atmospheric cascade of chaos.
    Composite lift out of strength in Canadian climate home for vortex.
    Projected AAM dip - not being an AAM dip at all in big scheme of things with baseline AAM simply outrageous. Relative AAM with a drop that would make La Nina state sing vs. our current state that threatens re-cycle and game on for blocking.
    Our Polar Vortex - completely off the grid cold vs. Anomalous off the grid blocking ( Kara / NAO via Davis Strait - yes Davis strait blocking is at 90th percentile of climatological mean).
    Siberian High evolution on modelling - huge hit to vortex vs. zero hit within 6 hrs on GFS. Chaotic atmospheric dynamics, via,
    Ex-Alex- if ever something needed to write a signature for this winter then Alex is it. Ignore the record breaking vortex dynamics for cold temps. Ignore the record breaking Nino temps for regions, the weather is apparently a spin doctor ( no pun intended)..

    Cue Alex, model curveball and gives us the best short range modelling cannonball I have ever seen.

    So, with that what can anyone predict, would hazard a guess at ' not a helluva much'  that's speaking politely!

    Couple of other thoughts - the GWO Jan Feb - hope to analog these over the weekend with new composites.= - daily modes considering MJO Waves and GWO cycle.. will post as soon as built.

    The strat trop disconnect - fascinating this year, W1 Nino vs. the oddness of Kara and now potentially Siberia leaves a layer of the atmosphere modified not by upwelling or down welling but by other factors. Forget OPI or SAI or QBO, this year I feel brings EPF to the fore, there is a possible mode here similar to the QBO. It originates in the mesosphere so beyond our science right now, however it is there.

    Here are a few chart to display the awaiting roller coaster

    Angular momentum nuclear - 

    gltotaam.sig.90day.thumb.gif.a16074a8b03

    Oh it's on it's way down...

    gltend.sig.90day.thumb.gif.f8d93a0d6fbd4

    No worries - it is still rampant....

    gwo_90d.thumb.gif.fcc9537081fb5aebfb5c6e

    That is one hastened atmosphere and we have an up and coming monstrous torque event. This winter is not done with it's chaos yet. 

    As far as looking for cold, we have it, as far as timing, it's here not withstanding 5-7 days and technical descriptions re SSW, and quantification. Amy Butler for her Strat Trop pathways should be relatively happy with skill. Loosely fits forecast so will take that - especially in the face of all the elements outlined above for near term modelling.

    The reduction in move to SSW outlined earlier this week - am wondering if this has been reduced due to classic tightening of the vortex and AO profile, with a pulse of relaxation to follow, hence the move away from u reversal. Maybe will relax in 24-48 hrs as the wave recession and drop occurs, if not I feel it is academic as of more interest is the perturbation created by the AAM state.

    Over to the close up models !

    Did anyone see Ed's tweet today of backwards air trajectory from last Friday - cold air we have now originated in Svalbard, incidentally round about the same time he predicted it. good work !

     

     


     

    bloody good post sir,

    a fantastic round up of whats happened in the last couple of weeks 

     

    • Like 2

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, karyo said:

    When I read Ian Pennell's comments I thought they would have generated some discussion here but instead there is silence...

    Karyo

    I was thinking the same thing Karyo. He speaks a lot of sense and certainly knows his stuff. He has been quite accurate with his predictions the last couple of years and I for one will be reading and taking interest in what he has to say. The last two winters I haven't liked  his predictions because they have been broadly of mild and stormy weather which we have experienced and sadly it is generally how he thinks the next couple of winters will turn out. But from 2020 (only 4 years time) he thinks the switch will come. I think we Brits need to sit tight and be patient. I do believe, soon we will be experiencing much different winters in this country. I hope he doesn't mind but I wanted to quote something from Ian's email I had recently.

    "As a result could well set the scene for deviations in the opposite direction towards extremely severe winters in Britain (i.e. a CET of -5C). "

    Be carful what you wish for comes to mind

    JB

    • Like 1
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, knocker said:

    What a scenario!! You have the upper trough running down the N. Sea to southern Spain with the jet zipping around it's western flank and the HP ridging north from SE Europe. Just ripe for a low to nip down the trough and stall to the SE bringing an easterly snowfest to England. Really doesn't bear thinking about.

    gfs_uv250_eu_52.thumb.png.6fee0e1e46c109

    You know things are looking up and going in our favor (coldies) when knocker mentions the s word

    • Like 14

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, knocker said:

    But yes

    I wandered lonely as a cloud
    That floats on high o'er vales and hills,
    When all at once I saw a crowd,
    A host, of golden daffodils;
    Beside the lake, beneath the trees,
    Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.

    But I would prefer a more wintry and festive take on things

    Of tallest hollies, tall and green; 
    A fairer bower was never seen. 
    From year to year the spacious floor 
    With withered leaves is covered o'er, 
    And all the year the bower is green. 
    But see! where'er the hailstones drop 
    The withered leaves all skip and hop

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, knocker said:

    There is nothing in the GEFS anomalies this morning to suggest any imminent change to the weather pattern effecting the UK. There are changes upstream where the trough digging down the eastern side of N. America is removed but this was forecast to be a temporary affair. It continues to push the Russian and Alaskan HP polewards but it's on it's own with this at the moment and in any case the implications are unclear.

    So generally speaking the UK remains in a westerly regime with periods of wet and windy weather with temps remaining just above average but obviously this will vary latitudinally and with the passage of low pressure systems which could produce snow on the hills up north.

    As a side note I listened to the natural history programme on R4 this morning and it included a poem by Wordsworth. You'll never guess the poem.:shok:

    gefs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.077f9757e10dagefs_z500a_nh_65.thumb.png.33454bc9f790bgefs_t2ma_5d_eur_53.thumb.png.9ffb9ecce4

    Not- I Wandered Lonely As A Cloud because I think that has no relation to the weather we will experience for a while yet. A whirl-Blast from behind the Hill is more apt for the weather we are currently experiencing and will experience for the next few weeks

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, IDO said:

    I still believe there is no MJO signal and that the amplification is from a standing Kelvin Wave, so therefore I am still not expecting the 7-10 days composites of a MJO phase 7 to materialise (Scandi block). The ECM seems to be where I have suspected the pattern to be, a block of amplification moves into our region, that is mobile and flows within the positive AO signature. CFS weeklies are now correcting the signal and week 3 and 4 are now suggesting a return to our default Winter synoptic, with the Azores feeding into the UK from the SW. 

    wk3.wk4_20151220.z500.thumb.gif.ee83c81e   567904aed0ea8_MT8_London_ens(17).thumb.p

    That will in my opinion, for at least the south, keep temps above normal, though Nov/Dec warm anomalies are unlikely. The GEFS mean (above) keeps the T850s above average till D16 apart from brief bursts. The GEFS mean at T300 & T384 offer little for cold:

    5679059c3271a_gens-21-1-300(4).thumb.png5679059d1869d_gens-21-1-384(14).thumb.pn

    This locked in pattern is looking very likely to pass mid Jan which has been the minimum length I expected. The PV remains a monster so we cannot expect anything cold till this wanes and/or we get some forcing, none look likely till early Jan at the earliest. 

    The good news is that the current CET of +5.1c above average will remain very close to this, as apart from a cold front today and Christmas Eve/Day, the very mild uppers look like continuing. Hopefully Knocker will post one of his red charts. Funny how this upcoming wave has given another boost from a warm plume and if this ENSO pattern continues then it may be unfortunate, but future transient amplification may also mean mild rather than cold flows?

     

    "The good news is that the current CET of +5.1c above average will remain very close to this"

    Genuine question; can I ask why is this good news???

    • Like 8

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Badrick

    I think we can pretty much right December off as a disaster. Yet another mild and wet one.I'm really getting bad vibes about this winter before it's even started.Accu weather's extended forecast goes right up to the middle of January now and nothing remotely cold on the horizon up until then.

    Hahaha, hilarious! We have another one who has access to a time machine who can see beyond 5 days. You are worried about the middle of January!! You're  not seriously thinking that models can tell you the weather for most of winter 2015/16 with accuracy. If you believe that then it's just as bad as believing madden and his outlandish claims, just the opposite!!

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Badrick

    Txt book vortex to the northwest, pressure high over Europe.. Could be locked in for while, with winds wafting up from the southwest. Long way too cold at he moment.. I will safely predict if I may be so bold an above average running CET for December by 15th.

    yes it is Bold and a knee jerk reaction to one run (sorry mods)

    • Like 2

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The reality is that mid term modelling has improved so much that a sudden unforecasted cold spell suddenly appearing and happening in the 15-30 days timeframe is virtually unlikely to happen, particularly when both the EC32 and GLOSEA are aligned.

     

    It does of course make for boring model watching as you know to ignore any cold GFS FI charts without support from the major players.

     

    Unfortunately, this does mean that a White Christmas is highly improbable unless a toppler occurs on the day and we need to look for early signs from the Strat followed by the likes of GLOSEA and the EC32 giving hints of a change.

     

    It really is a case of come back around the 15th December and see if anything is brewing towards the end of December.

    Its hilarious and a bit embarrassing how one comment can make people really believe that a whole months weather can be set in stone. No one can predict the weather a month in advance, don't care how professional they are and how many super duper, upgraded computers they have at their disposal . They haven't got some kind of crystal ball that tells the future. If they did they would be very rich indeed. How many times have people said only take models seriously 5-10 days in advance at a push, which takes us to the beginning of December -WINTER!!! Come back in a couple of days around, let's say Dec 2nd when winter starts to see if there is anything wintry in store

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    well, i dont know but when you look at the archive charts in the lead up to it (probably the most famous winter in living memory), it seems to pop up out of nowhere. the weather seemed to change from standard zonal to epic winter very quickly. the notable point was the strong siberian high at the same timeframe it is showing today. it would be interesting to look back at the ENSO state and solar output etc back then. i might do so when i get time.[/quote

    Please do, would be very interesting to know. Around what date in 1962 did the weather start changing?

    Similar solar outputpost-17869-0-18241400-1448287588_thumb.p

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    well, i dont know but when you look at the archive charts in the lead up to it (probably the most famous winter in living memory), it seems to pop up out of nowhere. the weather seemed to change from standard zonal to epic winter very quickly. the notable point was the strong siberian high at the same timeframe it is showing today. it would be interesting to look back at the ENSO state and solar output etc back then. i might do so when i get time.[/quote

    Please do, would be very interesting to know. Around what date in 1962 did the weather start changing?

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