John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Yes it would make a pleasant change for the north to have the sunniest weather would'nt it?...the north usually suffers while the south has the sunniest and warmest weather but I don't think we can say for sure which the most favoured areas will be, it's a bit negative in here this evening!
You keep banging on about warm spring weather, but like shotski said it ain't gonna be that pleasant this time of year especially under cloud cover it will feel quite raw.
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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
It's great to see charts like these from the Ecm 12z likely to verify following months of wind and rain and bitter disappointment for the vast majority on here but it's spring now and it looks like a nice settled outlook with high pressure becoming the dominant feature for a change!
I'm sorry but I can't look forward to the most boring weather 10 degrees and cloudy, it may be dry, but that's about it. I would much prefer cold crisp days with a risk of snow, which are more than likely this time of year
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10 minutes ago, Milhouse said:
I'm well aware there is still the possibility of something colder returning for the run up to easter but in the meantime the GFS12z is painting a lovely picture of settled and even warm conditions developing through this weekend and persisting into next week. Temps pushing into the mid teens and remaining warmest for longest in sheltered western areas. As mild as this winter has been, we have lacked some pleasant settled weather so something like the gfs would be most welcome.
Max temp of 11 degrees with thick cloud forecast for here in cornwall really dosent float my boat!!
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15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I'm ready for some spring warmth so I say.. BANK
The models are firming up now on the Azores high bringing a spell of very pleasant early spring weather to the whole of the uk, I'm sure most on here will be happy about that following months of wind and rain!
10/11 degrees this time of year dosent really do it for me to tell you the truth, would rather a crisp cold eary spring day
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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Fantastic Ecm 00z from next weekend onwards as the Azores high builds in, very spring like conditions develop with pleasantly warm sunny spells but still with chilly nights and a risk of mist / fog patches. It looks like a settled spell is set in stone now, duration not clear but something in the region of 3-5 days, perhaps 5-7!
But this is for nearly a week away. No way set in stone this far out, just like the winter snow mania charts we were seeing get watered down, why would you expect charts that show mild conditions verify
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1 hour ago, March said:
I really don't get how anyone interested in meteorology can use the astronomical dates. Seasonal lag is no excuse either as even that doesn't match up properly.
Try the very recent, very cold and snowy March, WINTER 2013!! Interesting meteorology right there!!
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
You mean there are some who don't?
Of course there are, we still want our raging blizzards!!! Two weeks of winter still to go yet. Plenty of time for bitter cold
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All this reverse psychology is hilarious!!
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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:just an example of why we shouldn't take too much notice of the precipitation charts. the 00z GFS shows snow for my location pretty much now-
i can assure you, it hasn't.
if its wrong right now, i'm not putting too much faith in charts for 3 days away.
the game is still on....
I can assure you ii got it right for my location.
This is the view from near my location (southwest) pretty much now
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Lovely wintery scene up on the moors this morning, worth a trip with the sledge and kids of course
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On 10 February 2016 at 5:38 PM, March said:
The guy writes like he works for the Express and doesn't even make many predictions, no where near enough to verify and disappears for months on end. Why would you want him as the top class forecaster of the forum? Do you have no respect for the profession?
This is the most ignorant comment I've seen in a long time. Have you actually read Ian's forecasts?? Obviously not!! Otherwise you would not put the Express and Ian in the same sentence. And yes I would rather read his forecasts than anyone else's because I have a respect for the profession and the knowledge he has on the subject
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11 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:
I would consider late Spring - early Summer to be May/June so in my head, Ian P's forecast could fall within that timeframe between March and May. April more like the peak of Spring.
What I'm saying is Ian's forecast is going opposite to the recently-issued Feb updates of both EC Seasonal and GloSea5 that are going for mild spring
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17 hours ago, Godber 1 said:29 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:
Ian F is suggesting it could start getting warmer than average late Spring, so Ian P's forecast for the first part of Spring could be right in some way
"measure of confidence in chillier and unsettled conditions rather than warmth, means I am certain of at least one spell with very cold weather (for the time of year) in late April or early May which will bring snowfalls to the North and night frosts across the country"
quoted from Ian's forecast
late April early May is last stages of Spring is it not?
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15 hours ago, on the coast said:
Best post I have read in weeks. It really would be fantastic for a warm DRY spring as its so much needed.
I think if Ian Ps mostly cold spring forecast plays out (which is now basically the opposite to the big guns) Hopefully more people will give him the respect he deserves. I am hoping it does play out the way he has called it, not because I want a cold spring, but because it may prove we have our very own a top class forecaster on this forum
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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
who forecast that,james madden i bet lol,say it enough times and he get one month correct lol
No...who the hell is JM ??? ( don't answer that he too much air time)
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31 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:
I'll have some of that please. After another horrible wet and windy day...sigh!
Sorry, cold, snowy and stormy 2016 Spring on the cards apparently. A cold outbreak in May is also forecast, so anyone looking for a warm spring will be bitterly disappointed ( no pun intended)
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21 hours ago, Gael_Force said:
"May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly" ....
.... is a very definitive statement: one that reputations are lost or won on. Personally, I think it is best to keep things vague as we've already seen the repercussions from PR disasters like the UKMO BBQ summer. Even our own GP was a little rash with his torpedo statement.
I find it quite exciting and refreshing that Netweather has found a forecaster who is proving to be very accurate and is willing to share his thoughts with us
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22 minutes ago, Backtrack said:
"May 2016 is certain to be wet and chilly"
Ah. So you write for the express. Can I borrow your crystal ball? I'd like to check the lottery numbers whilst I'm forecasting 15 weeks ahead.
Frustrating may it seem, but Ian has been closer to the mark and (impressively accurate )with his forecasts than anyone else recently and backs it with impressive knowledge and understanding of the certain drivers at play. I have, at times been disappointed in what I'm reading purely because I want the opposite to happen, but I will always believe in what he forecasts before anyone else's long term predictions on Netweather or any other website.
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I'm looking forward to the day Ian forecasts a winter of abundant GL highs , cold and snow for the UK
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
Latest run just shows how poor models are at product ing the weather beyond even day 6, the differences can be quite staggering.
Unless the METO change there long range soon I'd be massively surprised if anything other than averagely cold shows up, with possibly a toppler or 2 in the mix. Sustained cold opportunities have gone for this year unfortunately , the SSW isn't helping.
Now, let's have a nice warm and dry spring.
Unfortunately, according to some that ain't gonna happen, possible cold, wet and windy Spring on the cards
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4 hours ago, Hocus Pocus said:
Another fascinating read Ian and I for one am sold on your methodology despite being very sceptical in the beginning.
4 hours ago, Hocus Pocus said:Another fascinating read Ian and I for one am sold on your methodology despite being very sceptical in the beginning.
I echo this statement. Your methodology is most accurate than anywhere else I have seen
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53 minutes ago, David Morse said:
From some of the comments above I'm not sure what people were expecting an SSW event would look like :-)
Really, what we have in the GFS forecast is as clear a SSW event that you could get in my view. The GFS is showing a peak temp of -15C on the 6th Feb, an increase of 30C in a matter of 36 hours. Furthermore at 384 hours out it sunders the Strat PV in two on the 06z GFS run.
Isn't this what everyone's been looking for all winter long? :-)
Chiono, do you concur??
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36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:Still over 5 weeks left guys.
The warming high up is underway , lets see how the models look in another couple of days, although i do agree Jan is looking a dead duck insofar as cold for the UK is concerned.
ECM is looking ripe for some decent PM shots at day 10
edit :I know its been another tiresome winter so far for the coldie brigade but 3 cheers for the coldies, we have kept a stiff upper lip in the face of adversity- i have a good feeling our patience will be rewarded come mid Feb .
I would say we still have around 9 weeks left for the search for proper cold and snow. My search for proper winter weather will end on the 31st March, when the hunt for warmth begins, but until then there's plenty of time yet for things up top to get interesting.
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51 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I absolutely agree and I'm certainly not writing off the rest of winter but it's fair to say the models are currently looking much milder for the foreseeable future.
Ok Frosty we get your point; it's going to be mild
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Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Thank god for that!!! only joking, no attitude from me, just a coldies perocative , squeezing the last bit of cold hope from the back end of my favourite season. We have 6 months ahead to chase for warm plumes and heat waves, we don't want to start with the mild chasing too early!!