John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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The GFS is off on an eye candy gallop this morning ending with some floss for the album. On a more serious note a wet end to the week with temps in the 6C -9C range. I'm not quite sure why this was welcomed rather than the crisp anticyclonic set up. Somewhat perverse.
Chart weatherbell
I know, I thought we are all enjoying the cold, crisp mornings with pleasant sunny days, I certainly am
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The disastrous runs continue for the UK. It really is hard to watch the USA getting all the fun AGAIN for another winter. Even mainland Europe has struggled a lot this year to get anything cold.
You can almost accept that 2 poor winters for the UK is just our luck with the difficulties we face getting cold, but for the mainland to have 2 bad ones is worrying. I was hoping the recent run of good winters were proving the scientists right who said western europe can expect colder winters, but now weve had 2 with the USA getting it all. Not sure what to think!
Just have to hope its solar max knocking the pattern the wrong way recently and that now we're on the slide down the next few winters things like 09/10 can return. All we can do is wait and watch
Another hard frost here this morning. I cant remember the last time I didn't have to Di-ice the ice box car. Cant even open the car door this morning because its so iced over. It has been so cold the local fishing ponds /canals have frozen over. My eldest even said "when is this frost ever going to end I'm getting bored of it now, when can we have some warmth" we haven't had a stretch of cold like this since 2010. Long may it last
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Yes i nipped up to north hessarey tor on Friday afternoon. Still plenty of snow on offer then. That wind was something else though. Yesterday was a much calmer day. I was down towards the coast and was positively balmy compared to the moors.
Almost a frost last night down to 0.9c. Don't think we'll see a frost here for a while now.
Hard frost here AGAIN!!!! lost count now this winter, car completely frozen cant open it!!!!and we are at see level
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April 07 please !
March 13 please!!
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Probably not the first to say it this winter but here goes...
Winter is over!
So if winter is over, can we expect spring like conditions and 15 degrees temps for the foreseeable??? I think not.....temps struggling to get above 3 degrees all day today....winter is not over!!!!
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After the fun and games of last weekend, the hunt for more snow continues. Davidstow moors look like a good shout for a dusting or maybe with a bit of luck a dumping this weekend, definitely cold enough when the winds change to an easterly
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Yes we got very lucky
Could be a long time until anything like that happens again ; )I would say in about 3-4 years time around solar min, so not that long to wait!
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So they were right then weren't they? This winter has been utter pap despite all the positive background signals which have amounted to nothing. We have achieved ZERO HLB this winter and to hope for a miraculous pattern change to HLB nirvana just aint gonna happen if we haven't achieved any meaningful cold by late Jan in my experience the winter is over!! Which I'm afraid it is!!
MODs this post should surely be put in the MOANS thread!!!! We're it belongs
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Yes game set and match for us
never thought I'd say it but I just want spring now this winter has been a bore fest.
Aww Beka you break my heart
You will have to ask Ian to set you up with Richard anguin as its his photo Nah!!!! Lots of Feb and the whole of March to go through yet. The hunt for snow continues until 1st of April when the hunt for warmth begins, but that's a long way off yet
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@ John Baldrick
The cold "north-westerly" snaps seem to be somewhat longer and more entrenched through late January and Arctic airstreams are set to remain into the first week of February. That said, I am encouraged that the basic forecast for January 2015 (at least for the North Pennines)- stormy, wet and with a cold snap later in the month has come to pass, even though the "cold snaps" (there were two, not one) have been longer in duration than I predicted (leading to mean temperatures near-normal rather than a degree above).
On a more serious note, a look at the weather maps for Europe/the North Atlantic seems to indicate some weakening in the overall strength of the higher-latitude Westerlies coming into NW Europe going into February. The weather chart today shows no depression deeper than 970 mb in the sub-arctic and there is a ridge extending from Iceland to the Azores; this means a more north to south airflow with Arctic air reaching most of the UK. The weather at Nenthead (the village near where I live) has become very cold with a number of days not exceeding freezing point and I recorded -6C last night. We also have over eight inches of snow lying (it was ten the other day).
In the light of recent developments I would shave a couple of degrees' Celcius off the February 2015 mean temperature prediction and assert that there will be more than a couple of short cold snaps from the north-west: Northerlies are likely over the next couple of days and I would assert that at least one more "direct hit" from the Arctic (at its coldest in February) will occur before the month's end. This means daytime temperatures near freezing point (with snow-showers) even in the South and hard night frosts in the clear night skies following these cold snaps.
That aside I still think mild, strong west/SW winds (with high rainfall but further snow on high ground in Scotland and the North) will dominate in between so this means near-average February temperatues for the South but fractionally colder than normal for Scotland and the North (i.e. mean daily temperature about 3C in the lowlands of Scotland). It will still be substantially wetter (and windier) than normal over most of the country (the SE of England being the possible exception where near-normal rainfall is likely and with a little more sunshine than the February norm). The sea-surface temperatures over the North Atlantic and temperature regimes over both Greenland/Canada and NE Europe do not suggest anything other than continued strong westerly/northwesterly airstreams for February as a whole. The patch of seasonally colder-than-normal waters in the mid North Atlantic near 45N is sufficient in intensity to put high-pressure there and encourage an anomalous north-westerly flow for points further to the north-east; this does not, in itself, point to a change to prolonged blocking in high-latitudes with frigid northeasterlies for the remainder of the winter.
Ian
Thank you for the update Ian and it will be interesting to see how things pan out in the next couple of weeks. Thinking further afield, what are your thoughts for March? Do you think the dominant mild westerlies will continue to dominate? Or will there be a change in pattern to something colder? (i.e March 2013
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Hi John: What exactly is your definition of a "severe frost"? Where I live in the North Pennines I have yet to record anything colder than -4C; in December much of the country (inc Midlands and SE) got down to about -3C to -5C during the coldest nights:The North Pennines missed a lot of the clear sky and calm that would have resulted in lower temperatures. However, under such conditions (particularly as westerlies held up for much of the month) I would be surprised if air temperatures ever got much below freezing point at all in Cornwall (certainly not enough to freeze wet ground rock hard- my definition of a severe frost).
We could well have such a hard frost nationwide this week as winds are forecast to go round to the north towards the weekend. This is probably the first of the short arctic cold snaps of January that I predicted, in what I still maintain will be an overall slightly milder than normal, rather wet and windy winter: The overall pattern is much as I predicted it would be, the "cold patch" in the NW Atlantic leading to the prevailng winds being SW to NW rather than south to west (as was the case last winter). This leads to more opportunity for short cold snaps from the northwest as deep subarctic depressions pass eastwards (the coming cold snap will result from the passage east- of the vicious depression crossing Scotland tonight\tomorrow that is causing havoc across much of Britain today).
Ian
More frosts and heavy snow in Devon (admittedly on the moors but still heavy snow in the West Country) so a lot better for cold and snow this year
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Thanks to guys and gals on here for the heads up on where to go on the moors today we got our snow day. Went in to Princetown as well and you were right it was very hectic, lots of accidents, but all in all a good adventure. Will be checking the web cam next weekend just incase we get more snow down here
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Hi mate, Dartcam is situated around two bridges. I think your best bet is to leave it until the morning and find a spot outside of Princetown. It looks like snow all day on the moors so you are likely to have more fun tomorrow! If you are going today then Princetown is the only place that will have a decent amount mate. Good luck!
Ok cheers mate , think I will it until the morning, here's hoping for a good dumping tonight!!!
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Totally agree, still haven't seen a single snowflake down here for nearly two years, and it's not even that cold tbh. Even on the radio yesterday they were talking about temperatures of around 6 degrees which is hardly an arctic blast!
Nothing but cold rain the last few days and now next week looks mostly dry. Honestly don't see what all the excitement is about, at least for southern parts, just bog standard winter weather. Northerlies never produce down here.
I think we have to be patient and let this cold spell kick in. Today is the first real day of this cold spell with the next couple of days being the main event and getting even colder, with hopefully surprise snow falls for some lucky b&£g@2s
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Looking at met office its heavy rain all day here.
Tempting to take a trip up the hill but its saying heavy snow all day in Princetown. Trouble is, with heavy snow on a hill is, you get stuck there!
Think I will stay here and hope for a bit of snow later!
Hi beast I'm looking at the Dartmoor webcam and it looks like the snow from last night has melted from what looks like sleety rain. I'm no or sure where exactly the webcam is situated.... I suppose with elevation it will be snow, so where do you think the best bet is for today. I was going to leave it until the morning after tonight's snow fall there may well be more tomorrow morning
Cheers JB
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Considering the Synoptics this winter, I feel many parts (roughly Midlands northwards) have got as much out of it as possible snowfall wise.
Moving forwards, it looks like cold will remain for another week but I think snowfall will be limited unless the high manages to squeeze further northwardS - possible but not the most likely option.
Following that an easing of the cold looks likely in the run up to mid February - no sign of a mild period though and there clearly seems to be the chance of more wintry potential at times with repeating patterns.
Unfortunately I just cannot see a true deep cold easterly setting up this winter
But it's like you have pleasure in showing people the break down in winter Synoptics, milder weather and less snowy outcomes in the models....it's weird we don't get excited and revel in showing colder, rainy outcomes in the models during the summer season. I really don't understand your train of thought!!
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Morning JB, where I am there's nothing at all, not even a frost!!!! Looks like a light covering on the webcam, but remember that's not on the tors, so might be worth a trip.
Good luck if you do decide to go.
Morning SC, thanks might leave it until a later this afternoon, will keep checking web cam
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Glad to see you guys have got some snow at last. Hope it lasts until the morning for you. More for next week hopefully.
What's it like on the moors this morning SC ?
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Thanks for the info Beast, will definitely check those places out, let's hope we get a good couple of daysThat's ok. It can get very manic! You will presumably be coming through Tavistock way. There will be places before you get to Princetown on the moors and also, if you carry on through Rundlestone rather than turn right to go past the Prison and into Princetown, keep heading for signs towards Exeter, you will find some good spots up there. That takes you past Princetown and that way you are the other side of Princetown from Plymouth and it shouldn't be anywhere near as busy that way.
Have fun mate!
JB
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Thanks BM, like I said to Beast, sounds a bit manic! Do you know of any quieter, more accessible places to go sledging? (any of the moors will do)
Cheers JB
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That's ok. There are 2 places. The Plume of Feathers and the Prince of Wales. Probably a good idea to book in advance, they can get busy. There is a couple of bunk houses as well.
But take it from someone who used to live there. I only live 15 minutes away form it now and even I wouldn't dare venture up there when snow is coming. Its horrendous on the roads. And totally agree with BM4PM, absolutely everyone from Plymouth will be heading up there! Snow is the holy grail, but its not worth the hassle of that!
If you go though, be careful and most of all, have fun mate!
Cheers mate, will take all that on board. Sounds a bit manic!!! Do you know of any other good, quieter places to go, I've promised the kids snow and sledging my youngest hasn't seen snow yet,but I didn't think there would be that much. Will you be venturing out in the snow this wkend?
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Don't go near any roads between plym and Princetown if i was you.there will be half of Plymouth trying to get out there aswel. Also be prepared for possible blizzard conditions.TRUST ME IT BLOODY STINGS!
EDIT: looks like the beast beet me to it.
Didn't think we were in for that much snow BM (or are you aving a laugh)
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I used to be live in Princetown and yes, on an event like this we would get a lot of snow and it is definitely the place to be. However, be warned that if you intend to travel up there you will be joining most people within a 20 mile radius so it blocks up all the roads, which leaves the locals disgruntled! Secondly, everywhere from Princetown is down a hill so whilst you may get up there, you might have a job getting back out again!
Ok thanks BOP, looks like there's a nice Inn in town, so if we get stuck at least we will have somewhere to stay (and an excuse to have a day off work on Monday)
JB
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Thanks for the heads up ET, will check in the morning...Have you got a link to the web cam you mentioned?
Thanks again
JB[/quote
Hi JB sorry I can't post the link on my phone but search under 'Dartmoor Webcam' and it will give you the cam for Powderham Mill, Postbridge, just on from Princetown. It's in a bit of a dip but you can see a couple of the tors in the background. They were looking slightly white this morning but gone again by lunch.
Festival King is slighter closer to Princetown than me, he's sure to post if there's a covering. Fingers crossed for you.
Thanks SC, will check them out in the morning, not sure if it's best to go up tomorrow morning or Sunday. I live too close to the coast to get any snow so need to drive further afield and Princetown looks like a good shot
Thanks again
JB
Could be a long time until anything like that happens again ; )
You will have to ask Ian to set you up with Richard anguin as its his photo 
Solar and Aurora Activity Chat
in Space, Science & nature
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Can I ask why you are you pleased solar activity has dropped ?