John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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3 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Until one breaks away at T96 or even less! seen it happen!
I have also seen it happen before, been disspaointed too many times to get excited about anything modelled post T96
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On 10/01/2017 at 20:56, Steve Murr said:
The NE quadrent & in the heavier bursts which lower the ZDL towards the surface--
Never trust an Easterly, espeacially when it's modelling a beaterly
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38 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Very similar forecast for Princetown. As soon as the wind swings to the north the snow comes. Just shows the extra elevation will be key. Are you at 300 m/asl? Princetown sits at 400 m/asl if I lived there I'd be leaving work early!
I'm hoping my daughter can roll a giant snow ball down the street at Princetown again come the weekend festive!!
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Just now, John Badrick said:
Anyone already post this? MET office obviously think a wintry flavour for our neck of the woods Thursday and Friday
High risk of settling snow for the south west!!
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Anyone already post this? MET office obviously think a wintry flavour for our neck of the woods Thursday and Friday
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32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
The sun was far from spotless in 1947? I think some folks were even attributing February's monster snowfalls to the high number of sunspots? So you'll forgive if I remain unconvinced, John?
I read somewhere the reason the fabled failed beast from the east back in 2012 that models picked up and completely flipped at t72 hours was down to the big uptick in solar activity around that time. Am i talking complete BS or is there any credence in that ?
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SPOTLESS!! The sun is playing ball and on our side this time......for now !!
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4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
absolutely no way! even the experts say the 06Z is the least reliable of the 4 GFS runs, expect the 12Z to show toppler on 6-7 Jan, then back to square 1 with inversion highs, with milder air at times in north and west
Reverse psychology!! I like it
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40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Well the good news is that frost will return this weekend, especially in rural parts where minus 4 celsius is likely but nearer minus 1 to plus 2 c in towns and cities. Increasing amounts of sunshine too as we import drier air from the continent, the sunniest weather today across southern england but then more widely across the uk tomorrow into the start of next week but then it's going to become much milder, breezier / windier with rain at times as winds turn southwesterly and we draw tropical maritime air up across the uk.
"Frost returning this weekend" we had hard frosts every morning last week down here in Cornwall, some days the frost lingered all day. The coldest start to winter for a long time! First time since 2010 I've scraped the ice block of a car in the morning to get to work and in the afternoon to get home from work !!
But no frost this morning!!
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snow in north Devon this morning
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Will just leave this here
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THE SUN IS SPOTLESS!!!
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1 hour ago, Milhouse said:
Kudos to Ian even though its a very uninspiring week coming up. Out of interest did Ian predict the incredibly mild December? I don't recall seeing his winter prediction.
He's predicted prodomatly mild with Westerlies with a lack of blocking patterns, pretty much what we've had. Now we are getting this cold snap end of April beginning of May. Just like he predicted. This should prove to people who doubt his forecasting capabilities that he is one of Net weathers best forecasters!!
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6 hours ago, karyo said:
Exactly! I will be looking forward to his winter forecast!
Same here Karyo, let's hope it's a cold one! There's no denying, his forecasts are probably the most accurate
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On 4/6/2016 at 4:51 PM, iapennell said:
The weather stats for March 2016 are in, about 0.7C colder than normal for the South and also wetter than normal (but not by a wide margin). Scotland only slightly warmer than normal but also (surprisingly) a bit drier than normal. I predicted March to be wetter and a little colder than normal, but with these anomalies being stronger towards the north-west but I am confident that going into April my original predictions for continued chilly westerlies and NW winds will hold (here in the North Pennines this afternoon temp. is 4C and we have stiff west/NW winds and showers of sleet and hail!). I will let you judge me on my forecast so far and then as the season further unfolds.
If it is any consolation I did predict a fine spell mid-to late April for most of the country (with Scotland and far NW missing out)!
Your forecast going well down here in Cornwall, currently hail and hill snow showers effecting coasts and moors on a chilly north westerly wind. Just read ideas for end of April/ beginning of May, very interesting!!! keep the forecasts coming Ian, always look forward to reading them
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2 hours ago, marksiwnc said:
Looks like a few surprises today weather wise
Amazing sunny skies here and real warmth. And you've guessed it met office shows cloudy all day. Shockingly crap computers
Bitter cold wkend here, absolutely freezing, probably one of the coldest couple of days wev'e had in a while. Met got it spot on for us
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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:
whats that about? i assume you have unintentionally quoted me there, as it makes it look like its me who is having a go at frosty!
it should be noted- i haven't!
No, I believe it was my post and I wasn't having a go, was just pointing out that yesterday it was quoted that it is ridiculous to look out for cold at the end of march but today not so, because charts are showing somthing different.
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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:
As has already been said though, the GEFS 00z mean doesn't show a cold end to march, rather cool to average at worst. To be honest, if anyone is still trying to talk up the chances of significant cold weather occurring, it's just going to sound more and more ridiculous for that to happen at the end of March and first half of april and even though I'm a bitterly disappointed coldie with how winter turned out, I am looking forward to increasing spring warmth now the sun is getting higher and stronger with each passing day!
I really don't understand, the whole winter you were searching for the cold and bigging up cold charts, just because it's past the 1st of march you say it's ridiculous looking out for cold. We all know there's every chance it can get bitterly cold and snowy even through April. You can't turn the weather on with flick offa switch and mother nature dosen't follow dates so remember Frosty, statistically it's more likely to snow at easter than Christmas!!!
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53 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Think you may be dissapointed. afternoons certainly wont feel like summer not even indoors. some areas will struggle to hit double figures. But hey it will be dry might get to the grass
I was gonna say, where are you Nouska, the Caribbean??? Yes at least I can tackle the overgrown jungle that my garden has become after such a mild winter
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46 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
I'm just trying to bring some cheer regarding our first anticyclonic spell for ages, I don't know how cloudy or sunny it will be, I'm just pleased to see a high over the uk for a change!
Because we are talking from a IMBY perspective nothing to get excited about in the foreseeable from what I can see, just your bog standard boring weather, so until we can get some proper warmth iam still in winter mode!!
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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
Latest from the experts sounds great, settled conditions becoming dominant, with frosty and sometimes foggy nights for many followed by warm days with sunny periods. Looking beyond 3-5 days, staying largely dry and settled for all areas as high pressure continues to dominate, variable amounts of cloud but in the sunny spells it will feel pleasantly warm and spring like but with fairly widespread night frosts and patchy fog. I think the Ecm 00z is a good representation of how the met office are seeing things for the next couple of weeks or so.
So the complete opposite to what we all thought the effects of the SSW would bring
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43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:
The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks rock solid anticyclonic until towards the end when cracks start to appear but for those of us looking forward to a benign settled period with variable cloud and pleasantly warm sunny spells with light winds, the next 7-10 days are looking good.
Yay, can't wait for the most boring type of weather ever, 10 degrees with cloud fills me with joy!!!
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2 hours ago, Lake District Blizzards said:
March has been, and looks to be fairly settled so far despite a few cold days.
Thankfully no strong westerlies or gales anywhere near this month for Cumbria
i hope the rest of spring remains settled too!
Well we have had one of the worst storms of the winter on Wednesday down here and it's only the 1st week of March. Lots of power cuts, damage and 90mph gusts. The next few days seem settled, but Ian mentions settled periods in March in the forecast.
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SPOTLESS!! The sun is playing ball and on our side this time......for now !!
Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes,I like what you've done there,Reverse psychology...