Shiny_Bottom_1

The current band (trough?) currently around humberside to newcastle is interesting. From memory this morning, the forecast was for potential snow about 6pm. On its current track, this looks plausable. I doesn't seem to be breaking up as much as the other 'scraggs' of ppn that were trying to move in land.

Just keep an eye on the warnings...I would expect these to change/amend. Regarding temps, the guy I was speaking to also said about 400km north of Oslo recorded -45oC, and i've heard a similar figure for somewhere in North Sweden.

Now you come to mention it.... Just speaking to someone in Oslo now, and his temperature when he left his house this morning was -32oC

INCOMING Polystyrene Balls

Don't know what your laughing at LD. Its sunny here now, so we must have a Derby-Redditch Parallel Universe going on too

Must be a Derby-Nottingham parallel universe.

Are you me? I've just done exactly the same, and having some light snow too.

I've been in there Strider, and posted as well Have a look for my posts for my thoughts (you can do this by clicking on my name), but also have a look at posts from the forecasters as well. They have far much more superior knowledge than me. But basically, we do lose some of the colder uppers, but on the ground, things look positive (using GEFS and ECM ensembles) to remain around 0oC (max temps) until next weekend (at least for Derbyshire ). I was on one yesterday, as I didn't look at the T2M ensembles, and just went on the upper temps. I was wrong (pointed out by Nick F from the team), and would suggest this is exactly what people are doing this morning. But i've reverted from my sins

Hi Chris. The BBC national forecast had no showers over here from the 22.00 news. I've always found the ITV and Sky TV forecasts to be, whilst good most of the time, not as accurate as the BBC.

Just to back up the point about Kent. Have a look at the ensembles. The agreement, and the mean of the ensembles, go for 0oC:

First, good morning all you midlanders Secondly, no worries for Sunday as of yet. Perhaps a slight change of the diretion of introduction of the ppn, but overall, we end up with a similar effect. I was also going to post last night (and in reference to Conors post), but was in bed (and the Mrs would not have been happy for me to go downstairs to make a post). For anyone that watched the BBC Midlands Weather and (just a few minutes later) the BBC National Weather, must surely have had a Harry Hill TV Burp "FIGHT " moment. Local weather was going for snow, yet the national weather showed it missing here. Perhaps the national weather forecast was more up to date, but either way, it beat the local weather forecast hands down. No snow here. Also, for those looking at the charts. Never (like I did) forget to look at the ensembles T2M tables. Seriously, bar 2-3 days at about 1oC, max temps are looking at no more than 0oC until next weekend, with some back up from the ECM ensembles. It looks like, forgetting the snow, it will remain chilly. Look at the charts as a guide. <T+48 is the best indication, with <T+24 really beign the time to watch. My personal opinion, for the later, is to watch the BBC national forecasts, and view the UKMO charts as well.

Just to also add regarding the T2M for the ECM. I think i've found them for this mornings run, although the format is slightly different to what I have seen. There is good back up from the ECM (which also has a similar pressure pattern to the GFS Op) that T2M will struggle to get above 0oC by the end of next week. In fact, the spread is quite impressive, especially as you move through next week, with the higher end of the ensembles remaining at 0oC, but it goes further towards -10oC as well right at the end. But if you look at the ensembles, for Kent, 80% (or at least bar the op run + 1 other member) goes for temps of 0oC. I think, at this point, 4oC is much less favourable than an outcome with 0oC. Either way, 4oC is still cold.

Well, i'm going to completely contradict myself from the last few days. The GFS, as it has done for around a week now, shows the 850's creeping above the -5oC for a 2-3 days period (all based on Derbyshire), with them returning below for a 3-4 day period. Looking at the model comparison, we have a similar set up from the ECM. However, look at the GFS T2M ensembles. For Derbyshire, it is not until the 18th/19th before we get above 0oC as a max temp. Personally i'm sceptical about the snow potential, but those, such as Nick F, who have much more experience and knowledge than me (perhaps an understatement), disagree. So, you know who to listen to Overall, remaining cold...potentially until the end of next weekend/early the following week.

Well i'll only be 10 miles from you on Saturday Snow Hunter (I don't know why, but I keep getting the urge to call you Bass Hunter ). Fingers crossed I get to see something.

Raises both hands Oh...and Snow Hunter...lets count the cold spell before the New Year. So you can put your hands down

Yep. PPN is not making it inland very far at all. I think here would be a push, and realistically, Lincs looks like the most western region that will get the snow. But I still get excited when I see a cloud on a day like this

Well no snow, but possibilities that the system is at least starting to work its way in land a bit further. More clouds now falling in, so whilst no ppn, its more positive than a clear sky.

I wouldnt worry too much about the GFS ppn forecasts. Generally, it doesn't seem to build ppn amounts until <T+24, which are still not particularly accurate. Personally, I prefer the UKMO for ppn forecasts.

It is, and this is the risk. The ppn you see is linked to this feature. As it moves south, it pulls in a more northerly feed.

I would certainly keep an eye on the system to our east/south-east. Ideally, we need this system to push more inland. At a rough estimate looking at the charts, the flow of the ppn, may change more north to south later. It might be interesting, so keep you eyes peeled on the radar.

Hi Nick. Sorry, should have specified the 'milder' interlude being on the 850's, not on the gound. Milder being higher than we have prior to the period of the 13th, but still cold. However, main concern is the rise closer to the -5oC mark. Perhaps some variations in the coming days. Agree though on the ground temps, and admit, forgot to look at these. Cold, and getting colder, despite any other factor. Edit - Nick. Just had a look at the GFS, and would interested though on your thoughts of the Dam Line H500. At T+93, the 528 line starts getting cut off, despite the flow being good. Bar around T+252, we struggle to get good UK coverage again. Not sure if this is progged with the op run on the T2m, where it becomes an outlier (as per usual) in the low res, but would have thought that T+93 is still in the high-res output. Obviously, in terms of the cold spell, the output this morning is fantastic. But snow potential still reduces on the op run, at least by a text book definition, and unfortunately I don't have access to H500 ensembles for the GFS (might help in determining whether it looks realistic in terms of the other members).

I was going to wait until this morning too post, after reading some of the GFS posts last night. I think it can be fair to say, the in the mid to long term, you could say the 00z GFS is back tracking now more towards the likes of the ECM and UKMo. However, probably due to the lack of respect for the GFS, one thing that might be missed, is it is still looking increasing the 850's (for example, Derbyshire) on the 13th. However, in terms of 850's it potentially looks more like a revert to the late December situation. A brief milder, but still cold, interlude, with a return to further cold afterwards. I am by no means saying that the GFS is correct, and I would agree that overall, the ECM does perform better (but the 12z GFS does quite well). But, if this rise, albeit very brief, does occur, then the GFS will have picked this up 7-10 days before the event happened. What I would suggest, is that perhaps the GFS is good at picking up initial signals of changes, but not very good in modeling them past this point. I want to check, but also as a guess, the 13th, and probably the following couple of days, have now moved in to the Hi-Res? So perhaps good at picking up signals in the low res, poor at their development?

A few falkes floating around now, as the showers from the n/e start filtering in. Nice clump of showers to my north, but looking like missing hear, and going more towards the likes of the North of the city, down to somewhere like Burton.

Not sure really. I didnt expect to wake up to snow falling this morning, so might happen. The wind slightly changes direction later, so it might push them more towards us.

It was the same here from about when the snow stopped about 9am, until about 12pm (See above post).