Shiny_Bottom_1

Again, not always the case. Light snow will continue to lower the temperature of the ground, turning first to slush then turning to settling snow. If temps were higher, I would agree. But they are low enough for the above to happen, and approaching sun set, even more possible.

Not so, as I saw last week. Snow can settle within moderate showers within 15-20 minutes. There is also quite a break between the first and second front, so standing water will likely to have subsided.

But, the cold air is coming from the north, so unlikely to have made it down to you yet (although to be fair, I don't think it was forecast too). Hence, the major risk is further noth. PPN intensity is something hard to predict, and you may be right (haven't had much of a look myself at the forecast of intensity). However, the danger is coming when the front starts to stall, and stays in certain areas for a long period of time. Only last week, we got up to about 1cm of snow in around 30 minutes, following on from about an hours of heavy rain. Anyway, about an hour and a half's light to moderate rain this morning/afternoon, a la warm front. However, after this passed, some of the light showers were wintry in nature (i.e. sleet), so a promising start.

Really not sure what people are complaining about. The first front is a warm front, with the second being an occluded front (I think that the right term). For the first front, you need both elevation and time for the cold air. The later really hasnt dug in yet. With the snow mainly forecast for this afternoon and onwards, i'm not sure why people are expecting a dumping before noon, especially in areas where the snow risk is later this afternoon and this evening. Perspective is needed in this, with a pinch of realism.

And the 06z does verify the 00z. Very interesting, as this will only aid ppn to turn more wintry in the areas of Leics, Derbys, Notts and Warks.

You would preferably need 0oC for snow to fall and remain on the ground, but really this is very tight stuff. I remember, I think either a November or Feb about 5 years ago, was forecast as rain for where I lived (South Derbys.), but fell as snow. Just had a quick look at the 00z ensembles for the GEFS, and the Op run for Derbys, Leics, Staffs and Warks is always around the -5oC on the 850's. All other members for these regions are above. If it snows for the majority of this ppn, then I think the op run has done very well. Will be interesting to see if the 06z verifies the 00z, or if it follows the other members.

Conditions will become more favourable, however, as I said yesterday, this is not a text book snow event regarding temps, H500 and 850hpa.

Indeed Dave, although I wouldnt expect anything either as I would see the biggest risk is around 30-40 miles to your West. I've seen how much shorter differences can make the difference. Anyway...haven't you still got some on the ground? Stamford still had sporadic snow patches on the ground 2 days a go. Oh and Andy - I forgot about Notts as well.

Hi Andy - I would go with heavier ppn probably. I was a little surprised myself, but both t'internet and TV forecasts suggest this.

Morning all, and what a continuation of confusion of what is going to happen. So...just may take on things this morning, which I think I will split in to West Midlands (Birmingham, Staffs, Worcs) and East Midlands (mainly the likes of Leics, Derbys. Warks and Northants). West Midlands: PPN will remain in the morning heaviest in the south and west, turning more readily to snow over elevation. Sleet more likely on lower levels, with rain possible also the further north and west of this region. However, this is likely to be more associated with the first front coming through. As the second front moves through, the snow level is likely to drop, and I would go for initially one step up in terms of ppn type (rain -> sleet; sleet -> snow; snow -> heavier snow). This will be mainly for the early evening. As the evening progresses, I would expect the ppn to turn readily to snow for most areas, with a covering in the morning (perhaps the more central band (latitude) being more at risk overnight from heavier snowfall. East Midlands: A much trickier situation really. I would say most of the region will actually experience rain to start with, although s/w warks could see some sleet to lower levels (perhaps some snow on higher elevations). As the afternoon progresses, I would say that ppn type is likely to remain the same for these areas, but a risk of the ppn becoming more wintry towards the likes of Leics (the further south and west the better) and Northants (the further north and west the better). Again, a central belt (latitude) through the East Midlands is likely to see more rain. As we go into the evening, ppn is likely to turn again more wintry, with the more north and west benefiting most, although north and east regions are also at risk of snowfall. However, I would also urge some caution for this region, as whilst I foresee snow actually falling at at least some points, it is a much lower risk compared to the West Midlands. For the East Midlands, there is also a risk of the snow or wintry ppn turning back to rain in the early hours. So some may see no snow during the day (up to lets say 11pm), with snow falling later, turning back to rain and melting the snow. An interesting view this morning on the GEFS ensembles, which I have to admit, I have only viewed for Derbyshire. Have a look at the 850hpa's. For Derbyshire, all members go for a value above -5oC for today...except the ctrl run. Notice how it keeps it at -5oC, however, ppn is lower, but still interesting. At such a short time frame (<T+24), it really is very difficult with even members of the same model having such disagreement. Amazing. Oh...and don't worry about outside temps just yet. You may see a drop in temps, followed by a rise again. Snow does not need to fall in temps lower than 0oC. Its a bit of a myth really, but does help (but again, not an absolute) for snow settlement. Andy - Lets just say, BBC are going for rain here, but in Leicester....snow

Well, i've managed to have a quick look at the models, and thought i'd post in here my thoughts. I've taken in to account/viewed the following: 1. GFS 06z model 2. GEFS Ensembles 3. UKMO Fax Charts 4. BBC Website 5. BBC TV Forecast 6. METO Website 7. SKY News Forecast This is a view simply for tomorrow, and for areas covering the West and East Midlands. It is, as many have said, a very complex situation, and you will see why from below. First, looking at H500 and 850hpa from the GFS 06z run, verification from the GEFS Ensembles and the UKMO Fax Charts. The marginality comes from the fact that H500 damn line is typically above the 528 value, and 850hpa's are typically above the -5oC value. Both values are usually quite key for snow fall. To increase the marginality, the movement of the ppn band is also up in the air, with some moving it further north than others. What we are tending to see if that where the ppn moves north, the colder air does not seem to be moving south, in fact, it moves further north. Where we have the band stalling, lets say south of Birmingham, you see the colder air start to undercut the ppn. GEFS ensembles are also showing that the 850's are lower on the ctrl run than the other members. Not much, but enough to make the event more marginal. The ensembles are also pointing at ppn moving further north, as the ctrl run, but the snow risk from the 06z GFS Chart Viewer and ppn type go for rain or sleet at best. The ensembles however do seem to have ppn further north in general. Now over the the internet forecasts. BBC have sleet in quite a few places on the day forecasts summary, but going in further shows snow. The METO go for snow as well, but overall, something along the lines of light snow, perhaps turning heavier, with movement back to sleet. TV forecasts appear also to be quite varied, with the BBC looking like going for a stall over south to mid wales and the south west corner of the west midlands (up to perhaps Birmingham). Sky however are going for snow making its way in to the West and central midlands. The key for me however, is the movement of the ppn and the movement of the H500 and 850hpa's depending on where the former goes. In summary, and my personal opinion, I would say that the BBC are probably more on the money with this one, in combination with their TV and Internet forecast. The further south and west you are, the better, and elevation will make a difference. Lower elevations and further north and east areas are perhaps more likely to see sleet, although rain can not be discounted. These areas are also subject, should snow actually fall, to receiving a quickish thaw, as ppn changes more to sleet or perhaps snow later in the day. This is also based on the increase in 850hpa's on the GEFS ensembles (as the ctrl run does this a few hours later than most of the members). This is by no means a text book call for the forecasters based on the H500 and 850's, and along with the unknown progression of the ppn (including how far the colder air will undercut), expect to see changes, excitement and disappointment. In my own historical viewing of the weather, i have seen it got both ways, and with some recent events of more favourable conditions, I really couldn't call it (but have over the last week found the BBC to be good at the forecast for both TV and Internet).

Well, i'm very confused. I last looked at the models yesterday morning at about 7am. All signs looked ok to good for next week, and now the GEFS seems to have kicked the idea of snow potential well away from places like here until later this month/early Jan - And charts i'm seeing are now for the same period. Can anyone explain if this pattern of a downgrade has been on other previous runs today/yesterday, or if there is still a good potential early next week still? I've noticed both the METO have weather warnings still out, and Sky or BBC last night were apparantly predicting snow for next week. GEFS 18z ensembles for 850 hpa's do not support this.

Not sure on this PPN tonight. Looking at the BBC internet map of ppn, it shows practically nothing reaching anywhere near the East Midlands (Let alone the West). Checking the 12z GEFS, it shows very light ppn reaching perhaps parts of Leics. However, the main band on the GEFS pretty much follows the beeb, with it not really reaching far north (Herts perhaps), before moving back s/e. Could be a surprise (like last night), but I wouldn't hold my breath. ST - Looks like a random ppn floating around. Surprised its heavy looking the reindeer. Interesting those with fog have had temperatures surpressed...has been foggy around here all day, and around Tamworth way, hit +2.5oC. Basically, about 90% thaw today, but if its freezes again, it will be quite bad again in the morn.

I actually think this is an interesting scenrio again for the GEFS/GFS. It predicted the latest cool down well in a long term period....will it do it again? Run on run today, and day on day, the GEFS/GFS has been an upgrade. For Derbyshire, the op/ctrl run (from memory) runs -5oC 850hpa's of below from Tuesday next week for the rest of the run. The air pressure ensembles look good as a general agreement too. PPN as always is always going to be subject to change, but even at such a range, Tues-Thurs next week shows quite a few good days of both cold and PPN. Something interesting to keep a watch on. What I would say, is perhaps watch for the upgrades on the 850 hpa's, as per this period, followed by a possible downgrade as it gets further in to the mid term (however, downgrade to still possible snowy weather, and cold days). Synoptically...all very good.

Amazing guys and gals. Considering we are only (albeit some distance in terms of ppn, and elevation as well) about 50 miles away from some of you, looks like we missed out again on the good stuff. I guess it might be you lot that are classified as the 'North Midlands'. Sometimes I wish I still lived in Sheffield (and also Wilmslow on the n/w thread too).

Probably similar to yourself Essan. The Feb snow event was the one, but can't remember if there was any others late winter/early spring. Defo none this winter so far.

Actually, does anyone know where this 'heavy snow' is coming from? BBC weather map on t'interweb, and METO radar aren't really showing anything.

Morning All. Well, as the snow we did get (about 30-45mins in the end), as it was pre-ceeded by some heavy rain, whilst it did settle, due to some thawing et al, it now looks exactly the same outside this morning as it did yesterday morning (albeit with a thicker ice layer). Just watching the weather forecasts this morning, but (and it may seem a bit of a silly question), but where is exactly is "North Midlands"? You see, surely we really only have East/West Midlands? We don't have South Midlands (as its known as Central Southern England). Anyway, Sky going for up to (note that means max at best) 4" in the likes of Lincs, Notts, Yorks, Northumb. and Cumbria, and BBC going for snow in pretty much the same area. Didn't really see the forecast (Toddler SB1 randomly wanted to listen too Two Little Boys), but looking at the radar, guessing this is coming later on today. Not looking brilliant for a White Christmas (officially) but we may have something left on the ground (which might actually resemble frost more) which is better than nought. One thing I have noticed in the 3 showers we have got over the last 7 days, is there is always some kind of thaw before, during or after the snowfall. Anyway, biggest problem today is going to be ice. I havent been outside yet, but if it has frozen outside, its going to be extremely dangerous.

Lets be honest CH, if you've driven around, you will see know that the posted chart is untrue. Depends on your location Dave. Looks about the above for Cambs, but for places such as Warwicks. Derbys. and Staffs, looks more likely to be around the 2/3oC mark. Not much difference really, but looks like where the confusion is coming from.

Glad to see the some of the West Midlanders are getting snow, but on that basis, it would now make the West of the East Midlands the worst place for snow Its been raining here for the last 30-45minutes now. The odd snow flake mixed in, but to call it sleet would in fact be stretching the truth.

Nope. Still mainly clear skies, although the odd fluffy cloud floating about... ...I like fluffy clouds Yep. There has certainly been some localised events. Not sure if you've been up the M1 of late Botty, but seems to be quite decent between jnctn 26 and jnctn 30/31. As you go up the towards the likes of York, it actually seems to get a little thinner (although better than here still). Certainly s/e Yorkshire seems to have done ok, as well as n/w notts.

There quite a different range in a short distance. For example: Pontefract at 10am - -4oC Derby at 11.10am - -1oC However, during the journey (A1 -> M18 -> M1 -> A50), the temperature ranged from -4.5oC to +1.5oC. Snow cover is making a difference.

Hi Crimsone Sprite. Interesting radar pic, but have to admit, I can't actually see any clouds in the sky here yet.

Well, we seem to have missed an almighty chart for the 27th. Have a look at the 850 hpa over Ireland - -5000oC Sorry...couldnt resist

If i'm honest, I think Northants will be the most northern reaches of this band, and perhaps South Northants. The forecast is, and always has been, for the band to sink back s/e later today. I could be wrong, but the BBC has been pretty good with their recent forecasts.