Shiny_Bottom_1

Botty - Its now gone so fine here, it just looks like drizzle.

Its actually been light snow here for about the last 20 minutes. My best description would be like being in a gigantic chicken koop, with only 4 chickens in it, 'avin' a scrap. Any lighter, and it will cause a thaw on the ground

The cameras always crack me up. I am pretty much at junction 24, and its clear (as it is here). Got to junction 25, and there is snow.

If you look at the radar, there is a gap developing north west of Derby. Wait for it to be directly north of us, and the winds will change too :lol:

Longer than Derby

Forget the silence, i'm holding my breath Birmingham I thinks.

For Andy and Chris in Leicester - I can now confirm that the gap in the band of snow, is in fact, dry. If you look at the radar, you can see it, as it approaches Derby, just skirt back t'up North of here. If you dont , you'll end up

Where abouts are you Matt? I'm sure you've told me before. Was it Littleover?

Amazing. 35 miles down the A50 to your east, and it is, almost quite literally, nothing. However, I have known many occasion when this happens.

This morning does make me wonder whether the METO were right all along with yesterdays Midlands missing weather warnings.

Haven't checked the thermometer, but have been outside. Would say temps are about -1oC to -2oC. Very light dusting of snow on about 75% of the ground, but still frozen on the ground. Currently clear skies, with clouds to my North and South.

I'm afraid that is now two areas demoted from the Midlands snowless premier League...come on Derby...you can win it! Actually, we had our second largest snowfall of the winter. An immeasurable quantity of a dusting on about 75% of surfaces. I can give you a good guess where that gap is developing <_< :lol:

Just watched the Central News, and completely different forecast. Snow tonight, clearing tomorrow morning, with a further band of snow tomorrow evening moving s/e (i.e from the n/w)?

As I was saying earlier, with regards to the 12z GFS (or the GFS in general) was too watch out for the ppn ensembles. It does seem that the more East you go, the more the Op run is higher than most members. In fact, taking Cambs as an example, the Op run is a clear outlier for tomorrow. However, some of the more Western areas of our region, there is a better agreement (although the op run is till the most optimistic for ppn amounts). Take a look here, and click on your region in the first box, and precipitation in the second: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess= Now, this doesn't mean the Op run is wrong (or indeed, correct). There are two examples in my mind when looking at the Op run (what is shown on the chart viewer), which have happened over the last 10 days (Derbyshire) within the 24 hour prior to the event (in fact, I think it was 12 hours). 1. -5oC and ppn forecast (snow) - Actual result was rain. 2. <-5oC and ppn forecast (snow) - Actual result was cold and dry Point 1 I would say is the least likely failure on this one, with point 2 being the most likely failure. However, this is if it fails. At an educated guess, I would say that most will see some snowfall over the next 24 hours. Probability of quantity is low, but expect (if the 12z is correct) to be similar in the West of the region to the 12z, and whilst likely to be higher amounts in the East, much less than forecast. Either way, it still remains positive enough for over here. Edit - An now just to add, watching the BBC 18.00 weather forecast. The morning PPN looking to effect the Northern Parts of the Midlands in the early morning, and the Southern half late morning. The PPN in the afternoon and Evening now looks like effecting the southern, western and central Midlands. So based on that forecast, best areas looks like being West Midlands, Worcs, Gloucs, Shrops, Warks (southern and western) and perhaps southern staffs. How things change, as I though the evening band was coming from the North.

Just thought for the first time to look at the Net-WX Temp Tracker. OK. Only 3-4 days in, but quite outstanding, with colder conditions still to come really until the end of the week (hope I haven't jinxed anything). http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess= Its not often you see being nearly 5oC below average.

Hi Timmy. Bergen is gorgeous, as are some of the other parts of the Norwegian Fjords. In general, I would say that (1) We are not as prepared as other countries with more frequent snow (in many ways), and (2) We do not have the experience or balls to continue our daily lives in such conditions. However, early the week of Christmas, I was speaking to someone in Denmark who didn't go to work because of the heavy snow. So I guess it does happen in other countries, but our '1cm brings country to a standstill' is more like '1ft brings country to a standstill' in other countries. Not always the best advise when trying to take off/land a plane though

Well, it doesn't snow, it's going to be freezing rain...just as deadly for drivers.

Don't worry, i've heard they will be issueing one later for heavy rain, so stop complaining

Also, another note. A conversion of 1mm of rain = 1cm of snow. This depends on the density of the snow (which does vary), and I would say the above conversion is the 'optimists' conversion I 'm sure I have heard in the past a ratio of 1mm of rain = 4mm of snow...again, the same rule applies of snow denisty. Either way, its looking ok for the moment.

Just a brief warning about the GFS (not to put a downer on things). The 06z, and previous runs, have the op run higher than most other ensembles. Not an outlier by any means, but greater amounts all the same. However, day on day, there has been a better agreement on ppn. The GFS also, in the range <T+24, had ppn falling for here on Saturday night just gone. It was pretty much a dry night from memory, as the ppn fizzled out. Keep an eye on the ensembles for verification, plus also back up from the other models and TV/Internet forecasts.

OK. Give the METO some time to update the maps Situation as I see it, seems to have developed to some degree (hence my prior posts about patience, things can change (in both directions, mind)). So we have a band developing for tonight/tomorrow morning, followed by another band tomorrow evening. To be fair, the forecasts are all over the place. Some go for a stronger first band, some for a stronger second band. Overall as well, there is a forecast for anything from rain to snow, for both bands. It really is a going to be a close call, so eyes down, and keep watching.

OK. Just following on with the 06z GFS Analysis. Overall, looking ok. H500 are below the 528 damn line( in fact, on memory, below the 520 damn line). 850's are below -5oC - As an added bonus, the warmer sector (not exactly warm, and was only really effecting the far west reaches of our region (and further southern parts on top of this)) is now no longer about on the 06z. Main concern has to be the Isotherm, which whilst is not exactly at a great elevation, locations closer to 0m ASL will perhaps see more sleet than snow. I wouldn't go with rain, but in the same breath, i'm not going to rule it out either.

Quick question for those in a bit more know. From experience over the last 7-10 days, where we have seen rain when 850's and H500 have been good enough for snow, how important is the 0oC Isotherm? Personally, I would have though if 850's were <-5oC and 500's <528, the 0oC would also be in correlation with this (down to sea level). Is it in fact unusual to have an Isotherm level higher than than 0m under the conditions of the 850's and 500's we currently have? Thanks.

Are you talking about the graphics of the UK, where you can slide from left to right to see the ppn? If so, I noticed that. However, when I then click on the forecast for here, it shows as snow. I'm just wondering whether, due to recent events and the 0oC Isotherm forecast, that there is a possibility of rain. We can only wait and see unfortunately. On a positive note, we are now 36 hours in to the 72 hours when we started really talking about the first chance of snow tomorrow. Overall, it has stayed at least, to some extent, ok for us. Fingers crossed.

Considering the flow, not suprising. However, not all is lost. I think Wednesday looked ok. But, the more Eastern parts of the region, such as Northants, parts of Leics and Notts will indeed benefit. Even parts of Oxfords might do ok. Indeed. Overall, should be something for everyone at some point. Interesting you say that. Whilst not exactly warm, there is a greater indications of increasing 850's in parts of Scotland towards the end of next week.