Shiny_Bottom_1

Sorry to disappoint for those on here looking for snow from that band of ppn. The forecast was for it to move East initially, then n/e, then north. This is forecast to create a crescent shape from the south coast (lets say chichester) to around, perhaps Northants. As it reaches this stage, it is then forecast to move back s/e. I really do not see any chance of this ppn making its way up here, and as far as I can see, bar some minor movements, it is still on track as forecast.

Yep

Well, so far in South Derbyshire, its not as some may think. 5 Minutes of light snow, and its stopped already (in fact, I can see the sun peeping out now). It goes to show how hit and miss things can be.

In fact, a very good call TM. That group of showers appears to have both joined in to a band and moved quicker than I thought.

I think a good call TM. Two points I am concerned about for here is: 1. The Macclesfield Snow Shield (seems to have worked so far today). 2. As the sun starts to set, there is less energy for the ppn, and it will die away (I think that makes sense, but could be bumbling some rubbish here) Looks good for you. Bet its chilly up in the peaks.

Really...come on guys and gals. Too much looking in mid term on the models on ppn is always subject to some changes. Just some points to make (some, again): 1. The easterly, like many, do not make it past East Anglia and the South East. 2. The Northerly always had a risk for not really making it passed places likes Yorkshire...energy absorption and a warm sector (which were correctly forecast by the BBC) were the reasons for this. 3. It has not been too warm...we have had a number of ice or very cold days in the midlands (last night, again, was down to a warm sector, and predicted). 4. The Cheshire gap effect has always been open to margin for those in the midlands (east or west) - You would probably need much stronger winds and heavier ppn to make it in to these areas 5. The METO warning is there for a reason, not a guarentee. They have updated this in accordance with the data input they have (its not a joke, its real) 6. Red warnings from the METO are not exclusively for the s/e...look at it in the fact of the number of people that live there + the numebr of people that travel to/from the London area. There is still a chance that the ppn may make it in to the central midlands (Stoke, Derby, Uttoxeter), but also for the likes of South Yorkshire as well. I understand the disappointment...I would have too loved some decent falls. But the weather is, as the weather does. The two main systems (easterlies and northerlies) have effected the areas in general that you would most expect from these set ups. We are not even at the end of the first winter month (with recent years showing a tendency for snowier ends to the winter period), and yet we are complaining about so much that was never really promised.

And parts of the East Midlands...and other parts of the country. Yesterday, before the showers came from the North, I saw no more than 5cm, which with in Northants. Derbyshire, Leicestershire, Warwickshire (Rugby way) had just a dusting. Easterlies and Northerlies are not the best and most secure source of snowfall. We need to be realistic that the best set up for snow in the West of the East Midlands and the West Midlands are scenarios such as cold vs. mild battles and polar lows. The former situations are plausable for snow, and sometimes decent snow, but are also more marginal feeds as well.

Whilst I don't expect much for Derby, a dusting perhaps at best, I would say there is logic when looking at the warning. Derby/Derbyshire being the far most western county in the EM, has the highest risk. But you have to admit, they are there as warnings, not certs.

They got it right yesterday, so I wouldnt discount it. As a general picture, I think they may be on the ball again with this one. Have a look at the METO radar (or NW for that), and watch how the showers stop making in roads around the likes of Stoke, and further North, the likes of Macclesfield.

For those that didn't see any snow, you're not the only ones. However, the two set ups have not really been for this area. Easterly's do not always deliver to the midlands (west midlands and west of east midlands) - Its quite a way to go. To be fair, the Northerly, which can deliver to the midlands, was correctly predicted by the BBC. Energy/ppn absorption by the pennines and peaks, wth energy pick up in to central southern England. To be fair, the GEFS was perhaps a little incorrect on the ppn amounts, however, it was good at predicting that the 850's would be on the marginal side of things. Lets not also forget the warm sector was progged for tomorrow night as well.

Well, just been outside, and whilst the fresh snow left a 'dusting' underneath appears to be thawing. If i'm to make a plug going on memory of the warm sector, is that East Anglia and East of the East Midlands have a good chance of a few cm of snow. West of East Midlands and the West Midlands are likely to see temp snow showers, more especially in the heavier ppn, but likely to see sleet and the odd bit of snow, with no real measurable amounts. The same really as it drops further south.

One snow shower - Dusting on the ground. Doesn't look like any more here really. Looked like it turned to sleet too. However, much to be expected for here I think. Credit the the BBC forecast from last night, showing the band lose intensity over the midlands (and hopefully re-intensify back over southern central england). Also worth noting that ground temps increase as the front approaches. Left Northampton at -1oC (partly cloudy - 7.30pm), and arrived back in Derby (8.30pm) at +1.5oC just before the shower started.

Not sure if I am reading the METO warnings correctly, but looks like warnings for this evening/tonights snow is yet to be published/issued. Would suggest that the METO are keeping a close eye on the developments, and would expect some further warnings to come out during the day. Certainly a knife edge whether here in the Midlands it will fall as snow or sleet (would suggest rain as the least likely option - but we all know it can go either way).

You see, for around here, I dont hold much hope for snow in the current projections. Easterly - ppn rarely makes it this far west Northerly - ppn gets absorbed by the pennies and peaks N/W - We seem to be too far east for the ppn Of course, we see snow, but it takes a good set up for here.

Just may take on the snow potential areas for today (based on main band of PPN): S/E Warwickshire S and S/E Leicestershire Northamptonshire Areas South and East of the above (only because there are too many definitions of 'Midlands') For other areas, I would expect no more than the odd flurry at best. I could be wrong, and it is sometimes very difficult to know where snow risks will apply, but as a rule of thumb based on movement yesterday/wind direction.

Cheers SC. Looking at the models, the later cold spell I guess is still well up in the air, but the initial cold spell and the breakdown look like a good call at the moment. Tinybill - That chart is I would say marginal for most, and not so good for EA.

Hi Fred (Sorry for the slight off topic post, but couldnt seem to access PM's (Error occurred?)). Just a quick question, but was it the forecast from yourself (and Roger?) who predicted the cold from mid month to before Christmas, with a reload between boxing day and new year?

Hi Phil. Of course, i'm not indicating mild, but the set up is to high (in theory) for any real snow. Average is probably what I would call it. Regarding the 2m temps, ignore the GEFS Op run after (I think) about 7 days. As it hits low res, it does what the attached does, every (or about 95%) of the time. Not sure if the charts reflect the ensemble run though.

Interesting that whilst we still look for the cold spell to continue (and I for one would love that), it really must be emphasised how consistant the GEFS has been in bringing in higher 850's around the 23rd. This has been shown in general (when looking at the average of the ensembles, and to some extent the op run) for around 4-5 days now. Like the cold spell trend it picked up on, this is for me another trend the GEFS has picked up on. For me, at the moment, the GEFS is leading the way for trend spotting in the mid to long term.

Well thank god I got back in time. I was in Northants (see lots of posters from there), and it was crisp and cold. I needed to get back home for an important tender for next year, and thankfully it only just started snowing when I pulled up at home. Appears to be more 'Snail' than anything else (mixture of snow and hail), and is settling. Ah well. Cant be bad :lol:

Any chance Karl could give the GFS and GEFS ensembles a swift boot - Although not sure if the traffic across the net is causing this to come in late?

Just thought i'd put something in here, rather than clog up the already cluttered model discussion thread. A lot of talk about the colder weather being delayed, when in fact from a rather perhaps poor memory, this hasn't been the case. What has actually happened was that the severity of the cold projected at the start of the week was downgraded. However, then down grade was from very cold to cold. There are now some new signs of perhaps some very cold conditions now coming in later in the week. So a delay, no. A downgrade in severity for the first half of this week, yes. But....it is still going to be cold, and the parameters for snow (when ppn is about) is still plausable for snow (albeit marginal at times in the first half of the week).

Fo me, not liking the T+168 to T+192 on the ECM. That low pressure seems to yo-yo around, after moving dramatically between these two time frames.

Unfortunately H500 and 850hpa's dont really support any snow. The ppn type charts available probably show a realistic scenario. The further s/e you are, the more chance of a 'wintry' mix. Just like it can snow at 4oC 2m temps, its can also rain at 1oC 2m temps. I could be wrong though.

I didnt have time to post yesterday (or the later part of Friday - I think :unsure: ). Anyway. The GFS should not be discounted on the basis that it picked up the colder trend first, and the change of the 'majority' of the ensembles before Christmas to something more average is a plausible scenario. The ECM was discredited quite a lot this week, and lots of talks about it losing its reputation. I don't think it has, but the fact the GFS is different from the ECM and UKMO, has to be taken in to account. The op run was pretty much on its own for 850's. One thing that can be taken quite seriously, is that above average temps for most are not really shown, so we can at least take some pleasure in the fact that the plausible scenario of around a weeks of below average temps looks good. The funny thing is, the UKMO went with the GFS initially, and as the cold weather has approached, it appears (from what I am reading) to have fallen in line more so with the ECM. Should perhaps the UKMO be taken more seriously as an indicator, rather than the usual GFS vs. ECM? Up until around early Autumn (I think) the ECM was the more accurate of the models for the time frame it runs, but there appears to have been some slight changes overall with the UKMO and GFS. However, the accuracy of all three I would classify as being as good as each other. I think the differences are always marginal. PPN, as many of the more esteemed forecasters (such as Mr Holmes) have pointed at, is not something we should focus on in terms of trends. Small movements which do not effect the pattern of the weather (pressure, 850's and 2m temps), may (and perhaps, will) have more significant effects on the ppn. The problem I see is we are expecting extremes from the models, and whilst this is always possible, we are talking about projections that are hard to beat. We have lots to enjoy. Below average temps and possibilities of snow if the ppn hits right. A 'big freeze' is he extreme I talk about above, and expectations of this should always be advised with caution.