Shiny_Bottom_1

Brickfielder has posted something, a point, that I think is going to be crucial for next week, is the 0oC Isotherm. The last few days, from what I am starting to read, was down to the 0oC Isotherm level. I think that this has been the issue, and is something we need to keep watching over the coming week. Overall, it is looking more promising than the past week, so fingers crossed. Hi Gord. See above. I dont think it has been down to mild sectors, but 0oC Isotherm level. I'm about 75% confident this has been the reason parts of Midlands has not seen snow, whilst other parts of the country (from the same ppn) has. Outside of this, H500 and 850hpa readings are all in the right place. So, three things to watch from my perspective (available on GFS runs at least - although accuracy is something that needs to be taken in to account: 1. 850 HPA - -5 or below 2. H500 - 528 Damn Line or below 3. Purple (0m level) or very dark blue on the 0oC Isotherm Charts. Not sure, and perhaps something BF can answer on (?), is why when we have <-5oC 850's and <528 Damn, is the 0oC Isotherm level at times been so high?

Minus the Supercomputer, much more staff and a much larger budget, i'm sure i've seen a similar 'Mail' article about The Royal Mail?

Lets not forget that we have only just left December behind, with the best snow over recent years coming in the later part of winter. However, I would much rather cold and frosty mornings (albeit snowless ones) than mild sw'lys any day. Worth remembering as well...we do live in England, not in the Nordics. Snowfall is not overly common here, especially weeks on end of snow flurries and lying snow. Looks interesting, and METO picking up on some of those showers too. Thats the great thing about the weather...sometimes you can get a nice little surprise :wacko: Lets not forget though Nick, if anything is going to happen on Tuesday, due to its complexity and unknown parameters, I would not expect an update to these until at least tomorrow afternoon. Yesterdays now streamers were not added until a few hours before hand.

Perhaps I should have said NW Midlands or Staffs. This area, whilst perhaps not having longevity with lying snow, has had some good snow fall.

Well, having a quick scout around on the thread, looks like the west of the region did best again last night (strange how the west does best, yet the moans are louder from over there ) Snowed from 23.00 to 23.30 last night (fell asleep after that to be honest). Only light to moderate, but with the wet floor, it wasn't heavy/long enough to settle. Still, have woken up to a cold and frosty morning...the next best thing Still looking interesting next week, with Sky News picking up the potential. METO Warnings are still more the the East and SE of the country. But seriously, who knows how its going to pan out in terms of PPN. Still quite some time before the projections, so expect some twists and turns still. Interesting the the GFS Op picks up on the mid-week fun, but support is low from the other members. From the last few spells, the GFS and GEFS ensembles have been rather poor in the <T+36 period, more especially, the Op run (-5oc 850's on New Years Eve (was more around -2 to -3oC), and ppn projection for last night was also wrong)).

Well, going by your location description, you are either in the likes of Chellaston, Melbourne, Ticknall, Weston/Aston or the likes. We have been quite unlucky so far, but we have had the odd shower here an there. Not sure why we have missed out so far, but against some of the other counties/locations in the Midlands, our elevation is not too great. Add on our distance in Easterlies, being slightly to far east on a CG streamer, and having the pennies/peaks on a Northerly, its just a case of...well...location. We could get something, but I would not currently say anything more than 1-2cm max. Sorry. Forgot the slight small area of the West Midlands I would go for 30% for there as well. Tyoe in your postcode on the NW frontpage, and it shouldsave this as your location - gives you current temps. Alternatively, xc weather is ok too.

Thanks Brian. And a HNY to you fella. Just to add more thoughts again, for Notts, Derbys, Leics, Warks and Staffs. The band of PPN has decayed over the last few hours, however, the decay 'potentially, looks to have at least stalled for now. For some indication, have a look in the Yorks/Lincs thread. Notts is perhaps going to fair best from this, however Leics, if the ppn does not decay further, might also get some showers out of this. Derbys (North) should also do ok, and showers look like they are starting to fill in, however, South Derbys are unlikely to do as well, with still some risk. Staffs might do ok, but may be a little to far west, whilst Warks may do ok again if ppn continutes, but the further east the better. Worcs are perhaps in a less favourable position, and whilst Northants too may also be in a similar position, the potential is slightly better. So in terms of risk, I would say, with the highest risk of snowfall, as follows: 1. Notts - 50% 2. North Derbs -45% 3. North Staffs - 40% 4. North Leics - 35% 4. South Derbs - 35% 6. South Staffs - 30% 6. South Leics - 30% 6. North Warks - 30% 8. North Northants - 25% 9. South Northants - 20% 9. South Warks - 20% 11. Gloucs/Worcs - 15% Radar as I say, is looking ok...well...at least holding up to some degree. TV Forecasts are showing a brief spell for the northern parts of the region, but not so for the southern half. METO Warnings are now downgraded to Icy Patches, so if any snow, expect it to be light. But, as we saw today, we really just do not know what is going to happen.

I'm sure many have (I see) and probably will ask about the front working its way down south. Having a quick check of the METO radar, BBC Forecast (TV) and BBC Ceefax, I am going for showers to die out by South Yorkshire/NE Derbys/North Notts, with maybe an odd shower making its way through into more Northern parts of the Midlands (The further East the better).

Its only just starting Strider...nowt to be concerned about.

I think first thing is that there was no CG troughs forecast, so quite a turnaround and shows how quickly things can change/develop. In regards to why its rain, i'm trying to figure this out. My best guess is the height of the 0oC, which is showing between 0-500m. However, this would also not bode well for tonight. It could also be a mild sector, but a longer shot of that being the reason. I guess the final reason is the dew points. But not sure what factors that make up the dew point. Its perhaps a little disappointing for some, but it was unexpected, and as such, you couldn't really say it went wrong when it wasn't even forecast. Elevation seems to have helped (good reports from Stoke which is quite high up) - which is why I am thinking it was the 0oC Isotherm that made a difference (but fingers crossed it is not the absolute). Ian B should be able to give a better judgement on the reasonings.

I think for quite a few of us, its now eyes t'up North. Quite a band of showers now organising in the n/e.

OK. Trying to work out why ppn for some has turned to rain and sleet. Looking at the 06z, the 0oC Isotherm remained across the n/w, far west midlands and eastern Wales. This seems to disappear, and gains height throughout the day. So for later, i'm going to hold my breath. Not due to pessimism, but due to this factor. However, dew points are starting to look more positive again, and H500 and 850's looking plausable. Looking further in to next week, and it looks more positive. However, as proven for quite a few people, it is not always a clear cut case of when snow does and does not happen.

I was actually quite surprised at the elevation of Stoke up until recently when I used my SatNav driving through. Quite a chunk of Stoke is a good few hundred feet ASL, with parts around the city nearly up to 600ft.

Some of the posts in here are actually funnier than the fact that it is raining or sleeting. There is no reason why rain can't return to snow, its just sometimes its just the way it goes. Things are a lot more positive for us than a few days a go...you just have to patient.

Well, only just managed to log on. Late this morning, we had some snow closer to the city (in a more n/w direction) form home. A nice coating on the ground, but by the time we got home, it was pretty much non-existant. Has now been raining for the last 45 minutes, however, seems to be getting heavier and turning more to sleet (and now looking like turning back to snow). Suggestion is that lower ground in this precipitation seems to be experiencing some rain. Perhaps its to do with the current batch of showers, and perhaps it is effecting some higher round as well. Not sure of the reasoning, but like the other day, perhaps some warmer air mixed in. Everything else suggests snow (or at least not rain). However, this is an added bonus as to whatever you get later and next week. Nowt point in complaining...if its raining, it ain't gonna get any worse, is it?!

Funnily enough Ian, the dark clouds are also to my n/e and North. To the North West are much lighter coloured clouds, even with breaks in them. Anyway, I think I missed the snow a couple of weeks ago...well, probably the best of it, with just a few snow showers.

Just something to add. Any snowfall is going to struggle to thaw in the current conditions. Whilst some may say some light showers, these could quite easily accumulate over next week, and some decent depth could be experienced. Its cold, and a thaw is not going to be quick. However, it could lead to some very dangerous (and deceptive - icy patches) driving conditions, so take care.

You forgot the 540 Damn Line.

Hi WE. Only just checked the METO radar, and that ppn coming out of Manchester, does appear to have intensified, and potentially looking like hitting Derbyshire more than Staffs. To be fair, you are completely at the other end of Derbyshire to me, but directionally, it looks good. Good to hear as well that Staffs have got some more snow (so no moaning folks....thats at least two occasions you have had snow where South Derbyshire hasn't ). This is what a number of people have said though about this spell. It was, and still will be, progged as being a dry spell. However, features will appear in the shorter time frame that may benefit us. Interesting night as well. Whilst we seemed to have had a partly cloud covered night, we still have a frost. Looking like the cold spell has now kicked in.

I would certainly keep an eye on it. the NMM and the GFS Op run showed some potential for (I think by memory) yesterday about 24 hours beforehand, yet, the GEFS Ensembles did not support it. In fact, I think the NMM eventually backed down, but the GFS Op continued the potential. Eventually, the GFS Op (and the initial NMM - roughly a similar time frame to the potential tomorrow night) were wrong. The potential for tomorrow night (for Derbys.) has some support this time, but whilst having a look at the ensembles for Leics., the op run seems to go for a slightly later ppn. My advice, be it right or wrong, is keep an eye on ensembles agreement, rather than the specifics on the Op run.

Have been watching those Strider. I'm really to sure, but at a guess, I would say not. However, slight changes in wind direction, and it could get further south towards us.

Sorry. I'm not trying to be an I have a problem here, but in the current set up, the s/e is in a favourable position. Also, with the population bias, in combination with the former sentence, of course the model discussion is going to be quite heavily focused on the outcome of the s/e. However, I post in there when I can, as do others, who do not live in the s/e. However, I would also of course say more about the s/e, as there is where there is more 'action'. There are also plenty of people in there, who do live in the s/e, who comment on other areas as well. Without being rude, whilst you find a higher s/e mode discussion annoying, i'm just not sure why? How about reading the charts? There is some very good information in the beginners threads on how to do that, or if in doubt, raise some questions on here. Anyway...still some flakes in the wind, but nothing really constituting as a shower yet.

Good to see the odd shower moving in from, well...somewhere's. Has gradually clouded over here during the afternoon, with the odd flake floating around in the breeze. No showers, but always a greater chance of a passing shower with cloud cover than with clear skies

The thing is though, in terms of average temperatures, it is expected to get either cold, or at points, very cold. This is also true compared to recent winters, and in terms of projected longevity, this is quite an unusual cold spell. But like the snow, if you expect the big freeze of yesteryear, then it might not seem that cold. But as the week goes on, temps could fall more rapidly than expected. Some very low mins as well forecast. OK, some of the lowest in Scotland, but potentially (not sure of the probability) or close to record breaking mins, at least for the last 10-30 years. If we look back at winters of 'noughties', then we really are in a position of something we haven't experienced (in terms of not just the current spell, but the spell in Decemeber) for quite some time. 00z seems very interesting, with the cold spell still continuing to past the 10th of this month, looking compared to yesterday, an extension of a further couple of days. Snow for our region, in main, is likely to come from troughs - so patience for these projections is required. Fronts may also make an appearance, but patience is required again. BTW - I may ask for this thread to be renamed "The Grumpy Old Midlanders Thread"

Just some points to add before heading off out. First, regarding the easterly vs. n/e benefits. Both can be beneficial for the West and East Midlands, depending on the source, rather than just the direction. One thing to point out, is that a n/e is likely to be more beneficial in blowing showers in to our region, whilst an easterly seems to give us a better chance of a more prolonged snowy spell. However, both are similar in the benefits for our region, with the easterly more beneficial for the East Midlands. What I would say, is that ppn is coming potentially coming from troughs, of which will not be accurately forecast at best until the <T+24. Surprises in this scenario can quite easily crop up, so never give up hope. It is going to get very cold, well below average, with beneficial H500 and 850HPA. Never give up, but always expect Scotland, the n/e, East Anglia and the s/e to be in the most beneficial positions...but please do not feel there is a s/e or east bias on the model discussion thread - There is just a greater risk for these areas. Just to add another 'spanner in the works', SKY news a little earlier, on their forecast, showed a band of ppn moving south across the country, with it over northern England by noon - They then stopped the forecast Enjoy the evening, and remember - tomorrow is another day, and expect the unexpected