Shiny_Bottom_1

Somebody correct me if i'm wrong, but 3-5 days out when the SE got plastered, the ppn was not even nailed at this range. PPN really need to be viewed more short term, with signs within the mid term. Yes, I can see it being dry in the main, but I am by no means ruling out any snow during the next 5-7 days.

The only member of the team who can remember the cold spells of the 1890's - Just kidding John Certainly John, you have been one of the reasons why so many joined, and indeed stayed, with NW. Always a balanced and friendly guy, whether it a post on the weather, or any other topic. Will miss your forecasts, and also your rants in the model thread. Thanks for making the world of weather fun, for all your efforts behind and in front of the forum, and wishing you the best for the future - Enjoy whatever you do!

Without sounding condescending Dave, they would simply order more. Grit supply is not limited, and there are further options (such as pure salt (Brown rock)).

Anyway....as Dave says, the potential for snow extends tomorrow to Cornwall (not really s/e biased). However, for Dave, as i've said a few times, it will be interesting to see if this snow verifies for tomorrow. Looking at the ensembles, the ppn ensembles show this a possibility, with the further East you are, the better - by going on the Op run. I remain cautious however, as the support from other members is not so great, although again, the further East you go, there are one or two members showing something similar. The reason for the cautiousness, is that during the 29th, the GFS Op run went for -5oC 850's for Derbyshire, whilst the other members had agreement on a warmer value. As we had no snow here, and whilst I still try and verify the value from somewhere, I would say it was wrong. However, and interestingly, it seemed to have got spot on for the northerly movement of the ppn. The former point was also <T+12! Lets see, as i'm not sure we have done as much model verification since the GFS moved to a higher res.

I have to admit that the models have, and are still, showing what, in terms of temperature, really is quite an amazing spell. For example, I don't think I have seen greater than 5oC at home for around 10 days, and the model projections are further extending this spell, currently, to approximately 10th-12th of Jan for Central England. This is, at a guess, possibly one of (if not, the) coldest spell for quite some time for many areas if the models come off. In terms of snow, comments regarding the eastern side of the UK, are in general, spot on. However, the snowfall the week before Christmas was not projected at such a range out. But whilst the dry theme is one that is perhaps favoured at the moment for the bulk of the country, movements of pressure centres, shape etc can change all that. Throw in some troughs, and it really is a 'stick your finger in the air' situation again. One word of warning, especially when viewing the GFS, is before jumping for joy on the Op run charts, wait for the verification of the ensembles. Even at a very short range (<T+36), the GFS Op run has been out compared to other members. Worth bearing in mind.

Hi Dave. Still need to view the ensembles on this, as if it is similar to the 06z, the op is on its own. Also still trying to verify the 850's from yesterday against the GFS Op run. I have a feeling it got it wrong in the end, as it was going for -5oC here, with the other members going for -2 to -3oC. Could have been the reason for the marginality. However, yesterday was very complex, but yet should have been simple in its progression. PPN moving north, cold air coming south. You actually could see it not going according to plan when places like Birmingham were getting snow, yet some of the areas in peaks getting rain/sleet at the same time (both from the occluded front). I have a feeling that ppn intensity and elevation were not the main factors yesterday, but that either there was mild sectors in the colder air, or the colder air did not penetrate as quickly as thought, and there was some colder sectors in the mild air. Alongside some evaporative cooling, which was not consistent in areas of ppn intensity, it really was a "location, location, location" day. Even places like Northants and Cambs, which were not really forecast to be effected (either by TV or internet) got something decent out of it. Perhaps there was also a shift in ppn movement and/or split of the ppn, and/or changes in forecast wind direction. It really was a nowcast situation.

Indeed Mark. We were so close, yet so far, on the last easterly spell. We went to South Lincs over the weekend passed, and there was snow from the east side of Notts, getting worse near Grantham. Even so, when I travelled up the M1 last week (Tues), the snow was better from jnctn 26, and much better after 28. Can't for the life of me think where Creswell is, but guess you got something decent(ish) before Christmas.

To be fair ST, it would be an almighty cold spell if that were to come off as the models are predicting. But, what they say is true. If you don't have the cold in the first place, you could easily end up with marginal situations like yesterday. Some got a good accumulation, whilst others got none (like here, and before you say it, you got more falling snow! ).

Yep. Noticed those too Phantom, although worth remembering, these are only warnings, so keep an eye on the forecast for any materialisation. Has been raining again all day today. Noticed the BBC and METO have snow for Derby at the 15.00 point. Not looking too promising, but it can surely be said, that it is definately biting out there today. Cold and damp certainly makes it more unpleasant than cold and dry.

But this is a common problem with people taking the warnings as a forecast. I think if you look at the warnings, the words "Up to..." are probably used. You can't blame the METO though, because for example, Derbyshire yesterday: 1. Weather Warnings out for snow, with up to 5-10cm 2. Actual forecast was for rain all day It's a case of people using 1. for the forecast, instead of 2. In fact, the BBC forecast was also the same on the internet, but the conditions were obviously giving the TV forecasters a headache, who were trying to update the forecast, which actually ended up similar to the original in point 2. above. But, if the colder air had undercut the ppn to a greater extent, which was a possibility, it would have been different. But due do its marginality (and we all saw the disagreement leading up to the event), it was never a straight cut set up. The main problem, from what I see, is when a snow event happens which is not up with the classics, we always get disappointed. Basically, I think the expectation is too high.

But some people still recieved snow with temps on the wrong side of marginal yesterday/last night. It really was an exceptional set up that came through. Marginal, yes, but it still happened. That the fun of these set ups...sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

It is funny reading posts about 'only light snow' and 'we only have 1cm lying on the ground'. Lets just say we had moderate to heavy rain all yesterday evening (went to bed at midnight), and it was still raining at 6am this morning. In fact, its still raining now. Interesting to see snow 20 miles south (Tamworth) and 25 miles s/e (Leics) had some snow. The thing is, there is no point complaining. You get what you get, and as Paul said last night on here, it was mainly forecast for elevations. As some have said, around Birmingham is actually quite high, as is parts Leics. Of course, the elevation sounds like it worked for the Peaks which is good, so may make a trip up there this afternoon. The models are at least forecasting a cold spell, and perhaps a prolonged one. It may not snow in bucket loads, but looking better as time goes on. The Midlands, more especially the central midlands, are always at the extent of typical snow set ups, and we need stalling systems like last night to get the best (in general, but not exclusively). It worked for so many of us, and would say that those that missed out were much less than those that got something. Today continues to look promising, to an extent, and better towards the west, so chins up...still at least 2 months to go for something interesting.

Not always Dave. It been peeing it down with rain all evening.

Just starting to turn to sleet... ....JINX

Well BS, lets say its still rain here, so would imagine the A52 should be alright. But...tomorrow is another day.

Same here fella.

Cheers Paul. Looking potentially sleety here, but it could just be the rain getting heavier and my eyes playing tricks Forecasts look quite interesting for tonight/tomrrow am though - fingers crossed.

Cheers Paul. Do you know where you can get observational readings for the 850's rather than T2M's? I'd be very interested to see the verification of the Op run vs. all others. Seems quite a difference on the 00z, 06z and 12z of today, for todays weather. BTW - Have you still got the rain

Come on people. There seems to be a real desire for a spectacular, once in a life time snow fall. But, it takes a special set up for that, so we need to be realistic on the current set ups. It was always marginal, but has turned out alright is quite a few places. However, those who are getting snow (and those who claim to never get snow, yet have had it over the last week), insist on moaning how poor it all is. Come on folks. its still raining here, and i'm really not that bothered. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Whatever you get, enjoy it. Plenty of time left for snow.

Andy - Don't worry. Still raining here too. Could be better later, although I am 25 miles or so n/w of you.

Hi Ian. Posted on another thread about this, but do you know where you can get 850hpa actual readings? You see, all 3 GFS Op runs today have been -5oC for Derbyshire all day, whilst all other members go for around -2 to -3oC. The former would have probably given better conditions for the ppn to be snow, however, it looks like the T2m temps might be roughly the same.

Well watched the 18.59 ITN and Sky News. The former appearing to have either data or presenter from METO. Both however still go for snow in mid wales, north and north west midlands, with 5-10cm. Funny thing is, with the forecast changing throughout the day, we seem to be back to the original forecast - Snow falling late evening and early morning (with some potential still for tomorrow day time).

Does anyone know where you can get up to date 850hpa readings? I only ask, as for all 3 GFS runs today, the GFS Op run has been reading at -5oC hpa, whilst all other member have gone for around -2 to -3oC. Thanks.

Indeedy ISAAC, although I have to admit I thought there would be some snow over the Malverns etc earlier this afternoon. Haven't really looked in to it, but would suggest the cold air is yet to dig under the ppn. If we remember correctly, the BBC TV forecast was for snow this evening/early morning (depending on location), so not really wrong at the moment.

1. I don't think that any model of forecast is showing the front decaying. Therefore, give it some time 2. (And most importantly), it isn't in particular intensity, but the stall that is likely to cause deeper snow.