summer blizzard

Off the top of my head we've had 12 summer months since 1950 with a CET of 18C+ which averages to once every five years. Interestingly only two occurred in -MEI conditions.

It's actually more likely to miss by less than 2 earth diameters, it's just within the margin of error that it may hit. It's a shame a hit couldn't restart the core and get its magnetic shield going.

Lovely and sunny.

When do you expect blocking to subside GP? Should we be expecting another warm April.

The idiocy and stubbornness of people in the model thread (and regional threads to a degree) does surprise me. You try tell somebody it'll rain south of the M4 or that you won't get a whiteout in a slack 1040mb flow and they'll go after you like a pack of hyenas (they then proceed to whinge and insult the models for being wrong).

I'd agree with that. From November-February i'm basically a 63 repeat person. The rest of yearly i basically want a high sat over the UK.

Final warming.

BBC and GFS have the sun back on Wednesday.

Well another week or so of settled weather at least before the models differ.

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=2639&Itemid=179 Neutral most likely however so long as we are the warm side of neutral, with a +QBO it may be good enough. I remain optimistic for summer.

I meant for Feb only.

Not sure if this is the right thread... Ernesto upgraded to a strengthening 85KT hurricane at landfall with 973mb (doesn't sound bad to some but for a hurricane it makes it a nasty little bugger). Sandy upgraded to 100KT at Cuba (major hurricane status) but is as i expected declared post-Tropical at landfall in the north eastern states. With that being said as it was approaching some areas of New York/Long Island may have experienced its effects as a hurricane for a short while. From a personal point of view i suspected it would be sub-tropical or extra-tropical and the NHC did say they only kept the advisories at hurricane force for continuity.

Rubbish. I for one will be glad when sunshine returns over the course of the next week.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_10_2012_merra.pdf Can anybody explain whether we should expect the stratosphere to fall into line given that we are close to record lows at 10hpa or whether the troposphere will continue to override this signal.

I'm a little surprised how little mention of the lack of precipitation there has been on this thread, both models indicate at least here that we will be odds on for 3 weeks with less than 10mm of precipitation (only one front from the north to come in about a week before pressure builds again), that's pretty exceptional. At a guess we probably have to go back to Feb 06 for such a dry spell.

Anybody have an update as to the ground water levels and reservoirs as we go into the 'dry' season?

Also, no month has been more than 0.2C above the 1981-2010 average since last March.

Interesting month it was.. Around the 3rd (going by TWS dates) there was a surprise occlusion because two troughs and formed in the Irish and North seas and the precipitation had joined into a small but intense band which moved south over most of the country. We then had 6cm on the 12th (Glasgow got upwards of 9 inches) and then freezing rain and snow on the 14th. The last week was one of the wettest i can remember, low to the south west with multiple shortwaves.

Forgot about this thread.. http://news.nationalgeographic.co.uk/news/billions-of-earthlike-planets-found-in-milky-way/ Essentially it is now believed that ther are 17 billion rocky planets similar to Earth with 20% in the habitable zone (3.4 billion) and that red dwarfs also have planets. Based on the size of our galaxy this suggest a habitable planet may be every 10 light years roughly however when we take into account that we are in a denser stellar neigbourhood we have a red dwarf 5 lights years away and another G type star with confirmed planets 10 light years away. We are almost certainly not alone.

Neutral. I'd lean on the positive side personally.

Agreed, i'm in spring mode now.

GFS suggests its sunny until Saturday pretty much (bar tommorow morning) and its being pretty good so far.

I doubt the sun was still producing daylight at 6pm last night, it was probably just the extremely clear sky. Yes, i woke up at 6.45 i think and the sun had risen and was level with my window, beautiful. .. Looks very likely we will have gone 2 weeks with no precipitation now. Hosepipe bans for the summer anyone?

The recent summers have been caused by very low GLAMM, if we can get close to an El Nino with our +QBO then we are good to go. With the milder uppers i suspect fog would be a bigger issue than very low minima but i'd expect say -5C in a Scottish valley, perhaps a few degrees below in the Vale of York. That's true but at this range the resolution isn't nearly good enough to take the models at the word for cloud amounts. I'd expect there to be more cloud along the east and south of the Midlands but i'd expect inland a lot of places to see the cloud burn back.