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Ben Sainsbury

Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury

  1. Ben Sainsbury
    GFS, ICON & ARPEGE 18z are all an improvement on their 12z runs for Wednesday night.
  2. Ben Sainsbury
    Judging by the last two days, we've seen greater Theta-W advection westwards than the models have gone for and since Wednesday is a continuation of a similar theme I'm not quite as confident with the forecast. @Supacell How's your view of that cell that was near Skipton, photographic evidence of the cell will be key here to see if it has exhibited any supercellular characteristics. Too many people nowadays scream Supercell just by radar signature.
  3. Ben Sainsbury
    Oh yeah definitely Friday is way too far out to pin down any details! Anyway talking about today, Skipton cell possibly supercellular.
  4. Ben Sainsbury
    Eh? To me the GFS is the only model that has the system missing the UK completely. ICON appears very good still, ARPEGE doesn't develop an intense feature which is at odds with all the other models. IMO the UKV, NMM, ICON, ECM, UKMO all have something crossing the SE and that's been the consistent theme throughout, was always going to be a SE England event unless I'm missing something. Not saying the system won't miss the UK, but I'm more in agreement with the Met O at this point.
  5. Ben Sainsbury
    Need to be careful about getting carried away for Wednesday night as this looks primarily a SE England event. Regardless, as I see it today the majority of the models have a large MCS ploughing NE across SE England. Decent instability, Strong Shear, Steep Lapse Rates all a recipe for a cracking event, but as always these have a tendency to shift eastwards. But one to keep an eye on as we're only 48-72 hours out.
  6. Ben Sainsbury
    @Supacell Still in Selsey? Still a fair bit of lightning nearby.
  7. Ben Sainsbury
    Judging by UKV 700hPa winds, it appears CS England steering flow is more northerly, whereas across the SE it looks more NE'ly.
  8. Ben Sainsbury
    A little cell popping out a few strikes it seems!
  9. Ben Sainsbury
    Still seeing a strike every minute or so here from either of the two cells to my SW. Getting closer
  10. Ben Sainsbury
    Exactly! The reason I say this is because currently steering winds are NNE. Cells are back building nr Bournemouth atm due to region of highest instability is to our SE. With time the storms should shift E, but sometimes the weather doesn't always play ball!
  11. Ben Sainsbury
    I mean it is only half 12, I think give it 30 mins to an hour and hopefully it should edge further your way.
  12. Ben Sainsbury
    Can now see distant lightning to my SW, probably going off every 15-30 seconds.
  13. Ben Sainsbury
    Not often we have a happy Alderc so this is quite something to see
  14. Ben Sainsbury
    Good to here it's paying off
  15. Ben Sainsbury
    Cannot see anything here from S Oxfordshire, albeit not a great view.
  16. Ben Sainsbury
    Eeesh I'm working right now, but I'm gonna have to venture outside if they get any closer!
  17. Ben Sainsbury
    I wouldn't go that far yet, I don't think the wind shear profile would be supportive, however a few multicells are likely now. Some impressive cores developing.
  18. Ben Sainsbury
    Well this is exciting, should be a good lightning show for areas N/NE for the meantime! Bournemouth webcam anyone?
  19. Ben Sainsbury
    Cell appears to have electrified SE of Reading too.
  20. Ben Sainsbury
    Rash of cells developing S of Poole/Bournemouth, let's hope a few of these electrify. Would make sense given being in a slightly higher region of instability.
  21. Ben Sainsbury
    There's an isolated cell to the NW of IOW which may be the culprit!
  22. Ben Sainsbury
    I think Portsmouth, maybe slightly east is a good shout in my opinion. As instability transfers NE there may be several clusters of thunderstorms that head your way tonight. That saying there are likely to be periods of no activity at times.
  23. Ben Sainsbury
    Ooh interesting, a sferic SSE of Salisbury.
  24. Ben Sainsbury
    They will weaken as they move N/NE into a region of lower instability, but the region of higher instability should gradually move in the same direction later tonight.
  25. Ben Sainsbury
    Even ARPEGE still much better than last night. Here's GFS ML CAPE too, unfortunately no MUCAPE charts.
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