snowangel32

Gfs 00z is in a snow giving mood with nationwide snow I would bank these.

Gfs pub run back tracks and keeps cold locked in longer just small changes makes a huge difference. pub run Compared to the 12z

So it seems in general apart from the gfs today has upgraded our chances of a cold spell, still worries me that gfs is the one who sees something different to the rest and we also know it was the one who picked out the shortwave near Iceland a few days ago. So until gfs joins the rest it's hard to get excited. ECM is a peach of a run prolonging the cold spell and increasing snow potential all over the UK. Next week all models agree winter is finally coming to the UK I hope we all see. Some of the white stuff and when the cold does set in it's hard to shift as 2010 demonstrated. Going to grab a beer now ready for the pub run will the gfs give us drama or a stellar run.

Can't see the improvement if anything it ends the cold sooner and shuts of the Greenland high quicker. Not a good start to the day

Just look at the PV around Greenland again seems to be forming again but it will proberbly look different again come tomorrow That chart to my eyes looks fantastic a cold high heading to Scandinavia and the beast waiting to pounce.

I wouldn't kick the ECM out of bed looks to be setting up an easterly attack it's such a tease. Anyone got some spare Prozac lol

We know things are going downhill fast when we have to show the GEM, JMA, CMA, NASA models lol.

Hard not to be negative, GFS seems to have been the trend setter in recent times, UKMO has taken a step towards it and fully expect the Ecm to agree. And also more ensembles starting to back the OP. If we get cross model agreement I think we can kiss goodbye to a cold spell. ECM is crucial tonight I think, but on the positive side next week will get a lot colder with snow for some. Cmon ECM.

Hi what does that mean is it showing the predicted track or is it estimating severity.

It looks none to shabby to me possible ice days and snow and harsh frosts. And you really can't take the models serious at present they are all over the place read Fergies tweets.

It does but would turn to rain as it pushes North we want to see that low disappear.

Yes but at least from here it can't get any worse lol, ECM and GFS give us worst case scenario today but even that still has deep cold and snow prospects especially the further north you are. And you never know the UKMO could be right doubtful but not impossible.

Gfs looks to have called this right again it was the first to spot that Azores low which could be a snow maker with a battleground taking place but would more than likely turn back to rain as it pushes north through the UK heralding the end of the cold snap. From now on if the Gfs spots something I will pay more attention. Let's hope for that predicted start warming.

Don't stress In weather terms the 17th is an eternity it will look nothing like that on the day. As the old saying goes get the cold locked in first then snow will follow. And all the models agree cold for next week.

The only thing that concerns me is the trend over the last 24 hours is to push everything further east and now on the UKMO the ridge is moving to close to us for comfort. We don't want to see this trend continue. If ecm Pushes the pattern further east I will start to worry and could this be what the Met have seen.

Strange how you say nothing special last year I took a drive up to the Peak District for my snow fix it was like a winter wonderland planning the same this year. But at present I think the midlands is in a good position for any snow. But still a long way off to call.

Lol me too, I also told my sister who lives in Yeovil that they could see some snow they are well and truly starved down there not a flake for a few years.

Met office might get some splinters from that fence, but positive steps in there wording snow possible in South and cold harder to shift.

Great to see the MET are coming on board they also say snow possible to lower levels, but at this range it would be pin the tail on the donkey to guess where snow will fall. So the all the big models are on board and now the MET surely it can't go tits up from here can it its in realms of reliable now lol. Hands up who has told there family or friends and jinxed it.

A bit of devils advocate if we have the ridge further east it brings a chance of substantial snowfall for many areas but also we risk collapsing the high and allowing the Atlantic back in. Or the second scenario is the ridge is further west but creates a wishbone effect with dryer air, but improves the chances of a sustained cold period and keeps the greenie high. What would you choose I would go for the snowfall every time. High stakes.

Time to get the shovel if that ever comes off.

Nice run if I was nit picking I would like the trough further south and bit more west so we can tap into the real cold pool but otherwise a nice run by far better than that pub run. It's clear the gfs is really struggling though has it always struggled with blocking type scenarios or is it a recent thing.

Yh could be an interesting Fi PV being attacked from all sides. Details still up for grabs. But it's safe to say we can lock in the cold for next week at least. After that anything is possible but we are in the game big time.

Huge differences from pub run and 0z 0z welcome back Greenland high pub run for comparison

Today is going to be a rollercoaster ride will the gfs pub run be just a blip we are about to find out. Cmon gfs be kind.