snowangel32

After hours of reading and observing some serious eye candy, but then I came to the last page and that damm gfs throwing a spanner into the works, but even the gfs worst case scenario gives us 5 days of cold which I am sure will bring snow to many areas. We would have ran all the way to the bank if that chart was shown a few weeks ago but after witnessing all the other charts today our expectations went through the roof and dreams of a 2010 repeat. So even if the gfs has spotted something which is entirely possible don't get to downhearted because next week will be more seasonal with some brutal cold setting in. Great read today Netweather is special on days like this. I feel tomorrow's runs will be crucial we don't want to see that ridge weaken anymore.

More shortwave drama, I would have banked these charts a few days ago, when the mother of all storm was shown, even if it's only a quick northerly I would take that then high pressure to dry us all out, long term the PV is in ruins and all the signals point to chances a plenty for cold and some white stuff come late Jan early Feb.

Fergie update plus the models flip to a more mild outlook looks to have put paid to any prolonged cold spell in Jan. it seems once again we will be sandwiched right in the middle with cold air all around us. But I wouldn't write off the whole of Jan the vortex is under pressure we just need that bit of luck that has deserted us the last few years. Happy New Year to you all.

Wind picking up here now, not a lot of rain though, next week we will see temps back to average then after that no one knows. One thing for sure is the Polar Vortex is under real pressure and late Jan into Feb will be interesting we just need that bit of luck.

It seems that way but it's still wouldn't take a lot for them to shift back to wintry outlook as the UKMO is still bullish about and with each run being different no solution is decided upon yet I expect tonight we will have more clarity. I am more worried about Frank could cause a lot of damage.

Knife edge stuff who needs Christmas TV when we have netweather today has been a mixed bag the gfs has moved towards the UKMO but on the other side the Ecm has moved towards the gfs outcome, those dam pesky short waves . But with the models chopping and changing almost every run even in the reliable time frame and the mixed background signals this could go either way still as the ensembles demonstrate. Very interesting times ahead though but I say that with a heavy hart because we can all agree there is further rain and wind coming to areas that just can't cope at the moment.

Yh unfortunately more zonal weather looks the form horse and again demonstrates how good the MET are and didn't jump to any conclusions on a few easterly teasers from the models fully expect ECM to backtrack later it's cut it close the last few runs. At least Europe looks like going into the freezer could be good later on down the line. So instead of mild rain we get cold rain not much comfort for our friends in the North.

00z is a shocker, unless you live in the highlands then it looks great lol, that Euro high limpet just won't let go it stays with us virtually all through the run I need a break from these models now hopefully in a week or so something will change, but every time FI shows anything remotely cold you can expect it to disappear as time draws near. I wish we could only see 5 days ahead so we wouldn't keep getting disappointed. FI should get a name change to mirage because its just an illusion lol.

Pub run was much better but still leaves us with the classic North, South split. But jet was much further south a small baby step in right direction. Polar Vortex is going to take some shifting away from its base camp it looks mighty powerful. But we have to remember this was the forecast for a wet, mild December so it's all going to plan so far. Let's hope the experts are right about late January and February.

Yh they are a treat to look at, but until I see cross model consensus can't get to excited even though it's tempting to put a cheeky tenner on a White Xmas. Massive diffrences between Ecm and Gfs. How long before we see the verification stats on both lol. So we have a Xmas face off, who will be the winner.

Gfs is definitely in the Christmas spirit with the 00z and is consistently showing a cold snap around the Christmas period, on this run it shows snow chances for even Somerset lol. If we can get a white Christmas out of this current weather setup it would be a miracle lol.

Yh that's the big question if the Gfs is correct, obviously caution needed but the fact it's been showing it now the last few days from what I can recall is cause for optimism. Anything has to be better than what we currently have.

So if Gfs is correct it could be a case of short term pain for long term gain a number of runs now it shows very cold air around the Christmas period. 00z being the best so far.

Knocker are those Anomaly charts projected surface temps.

For anyone dreaming of a seasonal Xmas look away now. 18z kept us in with a chance 00z takes it away From a White Christmas to a tropical Christmas.

A trend has to start somewhere right, wether it be mild or cold, yesterday Gfs showed mild and there was posts even from myself that December and Xmas will be mild, so what's the difference I have seen many times that the Gfs has picked out a trend in FI and it has had no support but in the end it came to fruition. Normally shortwave drama that scuppers any chance of a cold spell. So my point being why do we take at face value when it shows mild outlook which we know is the models default to show zonal. But if it shows a cold outlook it is swatted away as it's just FI and won't happen one day it will.

True it is FI but it's also the same FI that showed mild conditions yesterday but charts were posted. So even if it's the deepest FI it still a chance of a cold evolution. Be interesting to see the charts throughout the day and see if picks up any pace for a colder evolution. Could be a trend or it could be a garden path lol. But we all know we will all be there for the ride. The game is not over just yet.

But it's an FI that wasn't there yesterday, it still shows that all cards are on the table. And what is FI at the moment with the models flipping from one solution to another it shows something is afoot and all scenarios are still on the table wether it be Cold or a mild evolution. We all presumed yesterday that because the models were showing mild conditions in FI that it was set in stone, but this mornings Gfs shows us nothing is decided either way.

Hope for coldies

So the gfs comes in this morning with a small ray of hope for the Big day its self and shows us that nothing is set in stone. No matter what we think we might know. Will this end up being just a tease or a start of a trend after the last few days horror show refreshing to see how quick the models can flip the other way. This winter is already proving a nightmare for the models to get a grip on and it would take a very brave man to call it one way or the other. But this morning so far a small victory for the coldies.

Looking at the latest charts grit wont be an issue but rain definately will, Hate to say it but i am writing of any cold spell for December lets hope the forecasters are right for end of January to get alot colder. Because at the moment its just yukky mild mush.

Looking at the charts for next weekend chance of a reload and the PV is under attack so interesting times again. But still a long way off so anything can happen. Excellent start last nite for many Midlanders. I have a feeling this Winter will be one to remember guys.

Stopped here now, goodnight all let's hope that was just a taster.

Heavy snow now and the sky is that lovely orange, everywhere is covered now very unexpected, cracking start now bring on winter.

Moderate snow now, will it stick