Lynxus

Woop Woop Sky around here is looking angry!!!! Wind has even dropped weirdly.. Didn't expect that with a low so close. Sferics seem to be picking up now we have more landfall. That stuff out the SW will be very interesting when it hits land. I expect quite a lot of build when it happens! Bring on midnight! All looking so good still. (Apart from people moaning that its all died back! --- Its pretty much expected.) Seem to be getting some midlevel convection now.

FINALLY! Estofex! This could become amazing now they are on board!

Also, that is a MASSIVE! hook

Convergence clearly visible down south moving up the south / south western side tomorrow night. I do find this break in PPN a little odd though. It seems to appear then vanish then re-appear over the far SW

I really try not to get too hyped now-a-days however this does look very promising. Im currently in Cheltenham and looks like it may be hit dead on.. I cant wait for estofex's forecast tomorrow. If there isn't a big Level2 over here i will be shocked. Based on whats being progged, I suspect extremely frequent lightning, heavy rain and probably some very damaging winds. BRING IT ON!

Well, estofex.org have a warning out today (I say warning.. Its a chance of thunder) anyway... They are normally on the ball. So may get something later!

Absolutely nothing here so far. Hoping later today may produce something however Estofex dont really predict anything and thats normally bad for IMBY. Currently cool, cloudy and windy here. Certainly not "storm" weather. (Cheltenham)

Right then boyes! That time of year again and the next few days looks AWESOME! for potential. Potentially for some VERY nice storms in the east tomorrow evening if there is any ignition.. Not a "huge" amount of convergence going on though so i guess the front itself needs to trigger against the heat. Cant Wait for tomorrows Estofex forecast! Plz be a level2 over us.. They are rarely wrong for L2's

Time to get this badboy back out! Couple left on various amazon stores. https://www.amazon.co.uk/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_1?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=lightning+detectors&rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3Alightning+detectors I think someone on NW.TV sold them last year also? If not, you have a few options to get realtime lightning data: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess= or http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php BRING ON THE STORMS! (Even though April has been quite quiet this year!)

Based off current models of the 850 air mass, wind direction and precipitation, Id say anything a good few hundred feet above sea level and on the western side of the country could see some white stuff. Maybe a good covering. Anything say east of Bristol I think will likely not see much. All showers appear to be coming from a NW direction and probably fizzle out over land.

Seems to be currently just NW of Gloucester

Crack of thunder here. Few strikes. AMAZING looking clouds.

Im fairly certain the met office use a random number generator to make that map.

God i hope some of this potential moves a touch south. Cant wait to see estofex's forecast tomorrow morning.

Big storm growing out in the biscay area not really progged by estofex today. Looks like there may be a westward shift giving the SE a bit more of a head on smash today.

Been lovely down here in the far South West. Can seem some massive CB's to my east along the coast heading out to sea. Apparently there was a tornado in Cheltenham today.. Been thundering in Glos and Chelt on and off now for days.. Yet this always happens when i head out on holiday. Fingers crossed something comes this way later.. (Unlikely)

They can do, especially with a good amount of surface heating. However, It seems behind this one there isnt much in the way of convergence, heat or even any cape .. Central England however looks like its about to explode. Nom Nom Nom.

Thats @10Hpa so quite high up. Pretty much the polar vortex if im not mistaken. I dont think it has a HUGE direct impact on our weather This is a bit more interesting at the 850hpa mark. http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-1.22,51.20,512

Been very quiet round here. Considering the charts were showing 60 - 80 mph gusts here , its barely been breezy. Weird.

What I find really interesting is that we have a REALLY! well defined bunch of waves on the leading edge of that front. One passed over here 30 mins ago and I thought we were being hit by a tornado.

That's so strange? There are sheep round here that look like they have been shaved or such, its so short. Maybe its gonna be 30c in dec?

Right well, winter is gonna be interesting this year... /clutching at straws http://www.gloucestercitizen.co.uk/Slimbridge-swans-fleeing-Siberia-herald-Britain-s/story-27967642-detail/story.html

I personally think its going to be quite a cold winter here. Possibly very cold but dryer than normal with easterlies being a large focus. I base this theory on a few things but the main points sticking out at the moment are: - Higher pressures to the north west due to a slacker jet. - A slacker jet possibly due to cooler atlantic. - This seems to be causing lows to head further south of the uk than normal ( rather than smashing straight into us like normal. ) One example being the ex-hurricane south west of us now. All this plus im sure other factors seem to me like we will be on the northern side of the cold/warm pool and in my opinion leading to more easterly flow due to slacker westerly flow and a much cooler time for the UK. Potential for snow? Hmm. I think it will be shockingly cold at times but with the east and north seeing the most of the snow. Only when a good strong low from the west trying to push eastwards will we see a large "dump" of snow and i think the east will win most of the time this year leading some snowy intervals between the dryer colder snaps. Just my thoughts

Anyone got a radar grab of these storms? I see estofex had a warning out. Seemed pretty accurate too. http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2015100406_201510030051_2_stormforecast.xml

Typical, lots of strikes to my SW now.. I swear these storms are attentively trying to miss me.