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Lynxus

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  1. Lynxus
    https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/torquay/torquay.html Is a good webcam for torquay
  2. Lynxus
    Is it me or is the bulk further east? moving up from the south currently?
  3. Lynxus
    If only it was 50 miles further east!
  4. Lynxus
    I think the jet being so far south isnt helping it along
  5. Lynxus
    Oh, Absolutely not, .. Think I was fishing for someone to go " Hey you there! Looks at allllll these other models showing an eastward trend and colder uppers!! GFS too progressive etc etc etc" Bored of convincing myself
  6. Lynxus
    We have had a few showers, but nothing of major note here in Gloucester. I was pegging my hopes and dreams on tomorrow but i think friday is now my only chance with rain on sunday. Friday seeing some snow. Probably of the wetter variety. If only the system went east by 200 miles.
  7. Lynxus
    So GFS shows the show the low going up into Ireland and the icon shows its moving east along the channel... Clearly some major changes going to happen over the coming days. I personally dont like to trust the GFS when we get easterlies. It just doesn't cope well at all with it and is always more progressive than the other models back into warmer temperatures.
  8. Lynxus
    Agreed. I always see the models struggle so much when it comes to eastern dominated weather patterns. The constant western data just meddles with it. Its always wanting to go back to the Atlantic and after a while, after some days of data, it finally comes true (I see this on all models every year) I personally think it holds true with any shortwaves and any return to the Atlantic, It takes a few runs to get that going again
  9. Lynxus
    Good olde La Nina, Its funny how this place changes from WESTERLIES EVERYWHERE! to cold in a matter of hours. One thing ive noticed year on year is that the models hate having to deal with any form of blocking or long term cold. Anything further out than a few days and they always seem to point to a warmer west and the Atlantic taking control. The models just cant cope with any other setup. hence the tendency to constantly push back towards it. Granted, there are signs of extremely brief milder days but they seem to keep getting push away.
  10. Lynxus
    Heavy snow started here not too long ago, been snowing all day. The roads will be chaos tomorrow after its all re-frozen overnight.
  11. Lynxus
    been snowing moderately in cheltenham since 2am. Probably 1cm maybe 2cm in places. Roads are ok where gritted currently. Anywhere near the costworlds or outside of town is just impassable. Up the hills have about 3 to 4 inches!
  12. Lynxus
    that is worrying... as you are so high up! Either way,.... 6 am is the big one. (for round here at least )
  13. Lynxus
    Fyi,,, snowing here.
  14. Lynxus
    You should be fine in stroud!!! Wow, 1c? its showing 1c here in cheltenham.. Id expect at least -1 up there... I guess the air coming in has helped upp the temp.
  15. Lynxus
    Eeeeek wow.. Thats erm.. shocking. But worth noting.
  16. Lynxus
    A mixture of air pressure, surface temperatures, rainfall rates, Upper air temps (850's likely) and others. Typically, if you have about 4c or less ground temp and -5 850hpa then you normally good for snow.. It does take other variables into account but that is a good indicator. (always has been for me and not really let me down)
  17. Lynxus
    Good to know! Here its ~0c . If brizzol has flakes, thats a good sign. This system has come south further than expected! think about the poor folks up north who were getting a pasting who are now in for a starry night.
  18. Lynxus
    What may also help others is, as the low passes, colder air gets brought down on its left side. This can turn what has been a wet night into a snowy day. (and even settle in higher intensity falls)
  19. Lynxus
    "North" of the low will be fine. Anything under that will suffer.
  20. Lynxus
    Have had snow at 5c before and its stuck, so dont worry tooo much about 0 or 1c.. 850's cold enough? Maybe some evap coooling. To be fair, its also midnight so temps are nice and cool. Even if it rains, it can quickly turn to snow and settle.
  21. Lynxus
    I dont know Nick, (To be fair, you should know...? I recognise the name from a long ago.) Years ago this place would of been unbearable (10 to 20 posts every few seconds ) , lucky now its all split out more than it used to be so I guess better in a way. - More in topic.. What i find most impressive is how the last few days its gone from being a very much midland and north snow event to being a midland and south snow event. Time is ticking by and soon we will know for sure! In times like this I always take GFS and METO with a pinch of salt. They work well for westerlies but as soon as we get the 1/10 setup's they suck! They just dont have the data needed to make a good guess and I see this year after year after year... As soon as its east, north or south, They cant handle it. Coming from the west? They will nail it.
  22. Lynxus
    I cant see them merging as the gales are on the warmer side of the pressure system. North of the gales would be where the snowline is and the models do sort of show this.
  23. Lynxus
    Is that a beasterly i see in the far far far far far FI.. Like.. So far. Closer to now... Monday looks like fun still., 850's aint as cold as they really should be Yet it does still show good for the trailing edge to have a decent amount of snow for midlands south..
  24. Lynxus
    Dust
  25. Lynxus
    Well that's not gonna confuse people who are constantly told that hurricanes don't exist in the northern hemisphere
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