Lynxus

What's going on today lads? I'm on a mobile and charts are barely loading:( Nothing from estofex either so far. My guess is that there is a good chance like yesterday. But location wise.. unno..

Id say that just a leading edge gust front. The wind doesnt seem to change direction as it passes Certainly great video!

Ohhhhh IOW about to get a soaking and a show.

Bit of a letdown again today. Seems like whenever we get any remote chance of a storm they always go either east or west of me. Always need to travel. grr Shame its looking rubbish for more later tonight.. Its SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Muggy, need rain

Horrid around here, Been blazing sun all morning, 28.4c here now. Quite humid, no wind. Its not a nice day. ( although its a nice day ) if you get what I mean... Quite uncomfortable. (71% hum )

Sounds like too much effort to be honest

Tomorrow is looking good for some storms in the SW, West and Central SE looks like it has some potential for larger amounts of rain, however potential for thunder looks lower. With lifted of around -2 and cape values around 600-700 range for the west and midlands, There could be some good looking cells popping up just after midday.

I think blitzortung.org is the best lightning maps uses them. )

Just noticed that too.. Its a constant stream of strikes.. Absolutely amazing!

If torro had their way, every shower would have a tornado. But yeah, Its certainly looking like one. Now time tokeep an eye out for a nice hook echo.

Nice, Good to get more data points in the UK. Blitzortung is already really accurate! Out of interest, How much did it cost to get you up and running?

Nice pics Supa.. God I hope this summer gives us some great storms. Its been a few years since ive had a good chase now and not much ever comes this way.. Might get back on the road this year.

If 80mph gusts dont warrant an amber , i dont know what does! Ever been hit by something at 80mph?

I dont understand why this isnt being "bigged up" by the papers? Scotland gets a storm that they get most years and its a huge deal.. Potential damaging winds in large built up coastal areas ( and inland ) and we hear next to nothing.. To me, The latest models show some terrible weather for the south, south west and western parts. With Ireland, scotland and the north being hit fairly hard after. ( And potential for a double whammy for midlands and the west later too ) Somethings fishy..

Well. Weds night looks very interesting now!!! I wonder what the papers will go with this time round? Looks like easy gusts of 70/80mph inland in exposed areas.. the south coast... wow... Gonna need to weld the hatches shut.

Eeek.. Very FI however, ... Eeeeek Potential for quite some nasty weather the latter part of next week and then some nasty stuff the following week ( above ) Looks like the 850 -5's are not far away with any of these low pressure systems.... Possibly some snow about when the lows pass to the east of us..

WEATHER BOMB about to hit the uk! While I guess the terms are somewhat correct. I just hate the way the DM reports it... Grr http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2865214/Forecasters-issue-snow-ice-warnings-Britain-ahead-80mph-Atlantic-storm-strike-later-week.html A violent storm was today developing quickly in the Atlantic Ocean as Britain prepared to be hit by 80mph winds later this week. The system, known as an ‘explosive cyclogenesis’ or a ‘weather bomb’, is expected to pass just to the south of Iceland – staying far away from the UK. But it will affect Britain by bringing wet and windy conditions tomorrow night, which will stay for Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Today, parts of northern England and Scotland were blanketed in snow as cars were seen abandoned and drivers were urged to take extra care.

Late comer to the topic and wondering is said Forecast has been launched yet? Anyone got a link ( I assume it will be posted here asap anyway? )

Cough* Tools are useful. In fact , This is somewhat offensive to tools.

Not sure if this is the best place, However this an interesting read Re: the ultra cold that the east is having recently.. http://news.sciencemag.org/asia/2014/10/arctic-sea-ice-loss-responsible-eurasias-deep-chill From the article: A deadly winter cold wave settled over Europe at the end of January 2012, blanketing much of the continent with snow and ultimately causing more than 800 deaths. Such severe winters are becoming more common across Eurasia—and some scientists contend that sea ice loss, by altering circulation patterns, is ultimately to blame for these frequent deep chills. But as climate simulations haven’t yet parsed out the atmospheric response to the loss of sea ice, its influence on Eurasian winters remains a question mark. Now, a new modeling study finds a link between these winters and the decline of sea ice in a part of the Arctic Ocean known as the Barents-Kara sea region, bordering Norway and Russia. The researchers identified several key circulation patterns that affected the winter temperatures from 1979 to 2013, particularly the Arctic Oscillation (a climate pattern that circulates around the Arctic Ocean and tends to confine colder air to the polar latitudes) and a second pattern they call Warm Arctic and Cold Eurasia (WACE), which they found correlates to sea ice loss as well as to particularly strong winters. WACE has been going strong since about 2004 or 2005—and as a result, the probability of severe winters has more than doubled in central Eurasia, they report online today in Nature Geoscience. But these severe winters may be a temporary phase within longer term warming: By the end of the century, the researchers report, the Arctic Oscillation could overpower the cooling effect from WACE—and winter temperatures over Eurasia will gradually increase.

ESTOFEX.ORG have some interesting information today especially how the jet interacts with this low pressure. Storm Forecast Valid: Tue 21 Oct 2014 06:00 to Wed 22 Oct 2014 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 20 Oct 2014 22:47 Forecaster: PISTOTNIK A level 1 and level 2 were issued for SE England, BeNeLux, N and E France, Switzerland, central and S Germany, the Czech Republic and Austria mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes. A level 1 and level 2 were issued for NE Italy, the N Adriatic Sea, Slovenia, the N parts of Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Serbia, and the W parts of Hungary and Slovakia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes, and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation. A level 1 was issued from Scotland into NW Germany mainly for severe wind gusts. SYNOPSIS A strong zonal flow is present across Europe. A first cyclone tracks eastward into Russia and brings wintry conditions into Scandinavia and northeastern Europe in its wake. Behind a transient and progressive ridge over central Europe, the next cyclone (ex-hurricane "Gonzalo") moves from Scotland towards Denmark, and a new trough ejects from the British Isles into central Europe. Quiescent conditions prevail over southwestern and southern Europe, apart from quickly increasing Mistral and Tramontana winds over the western Mediterranean Sea at the rear flank of the amplifying central European trough. DISCUSSION ... England into BeNeLux, NE France, Switzerland, central and S Germany, Czech Republic, Austria ... A powerful jet streak (>50 m/s at 500 hPa) digs southeastward at the flank of the Scottish cyclone. In the course of the day, its axis is forecast to point across northern and eastern France into Switzerland and northern Italy. Very strong vorticity advection will be present at its cyclonic flank, which is forecast to catch up with the cold front around 09 UTC over southeastern England. Under the influence of its lift, a band of neutral to slightly unstable profiles will likely establish ahead of the cold front, largely overlapping with the very strong wind field of the jet streak. In the 09 to 15 UTC time frame, thunderstorms become increasingly likely while the cold front moves from England into the Netherlands, Belgium and northern France. Storms will soon organize into multicells and bowing lines, and the risk of severe wind gusts increases betimes. In a strongly sheared and helical flow even in the lowest levels (15-20 m/s of 0-1 km shear and 200-400 m^2/s^2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, respectively), any updraft that manages to stay more discrete may also acquire rotation and produce a tornado. After 15 UTC the limited area models show convincing signals that the convective activity will be bundled into one dominant line along the cold front, as it moves into Germany, Luxemburg and eastern France. Deep-layer shear increases from 20 m/s near the northern fringe of the unstable area to almost 50 m/s beneath the jet axis over France and Switzerland. A level 2 for severe wind gusts is issued for those areas where a robust overlap of strong shear, strong synoptic lift and at least a little CAPE exists, surrounded by a broad level 1. Limiting factors are the relaxing shear towards the north and the decreasing depth of the convective line towards the south, which makes it less likely that the immense shear beneath the jet axis can be fully consumed. Until 00 UTC, the convective line is forecast to cross central and southern Germany, the Czech Republic and much of Austria. Along the northern Alpine rim, ageostrophic flow due to channelling (indicated by forecast pressure tendencies up to 10hPa/3h) may further enhance the strength of the wind gusts. ... NE Italy, N Adriatic Sea, Slovenia, N parts of Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Serbia, and W parts of Hungary and Slovakia ... Unseasonably rich low-level moisture is present in the range of an old frontal boundary, left over by the departing low over Russia. Backing and increasing low-level winds in response to strong pressure falls in the evening may advect further Adriatic moisture into the northern Balkans and onto the Pannonian plains, maybe even into Slovakia (depending on a possible mesolow development along the approaching cold front). The most aggressive solutions (WRF) show surface dewpoints around 14°C and 925 hPa dewpoints around 12°C over Slovenia, Croatia and western Hungary at midnight, yielding CAPE up to 500 J/kg under a strongly sheared and helical flow. With the arrival of the vorticity lobe aloft, prefrontal storms may start to form in the late evening over eastern Austria, western Hungary, Slovenia and northeastern Italy. They will probably be elevated in the beginning, but in case they manage to root down to the surface, they can easily turn into tornadic supercells in this almost saturated and strongly sheared environment. Any prefrontal activity will sooner or later be engulfed by the following convective line, which will cross much of Hungary and the northern Balkans until Wednesday 06 UTC. While it gradually decelerates and outruns the strongest wind field and synoptic-scale lift, the risk of severe wind gusts will start to decrease. However, a limited risk of training storms with localized flooding may evolve instead, especially in Slovenia and Croatia where storms from the northern Adriatic Sea may move onshore for a few hours while they are undercut by northeasterly surface winds and turn elevated. ... Scotland and E England, as well as BeNeLux and NW Germany coasts after 15 UTC... Showers and weakly electrified thunderstorms will form in the stream of deeply mixed polar air behind the cold front. Vertical wind shear will be limited, but the strong background wind field may support wind gusts slightly above 25 m/s even with poorly organized convection. Besides, an isolated tornado is not ruled out along windward coasts where the sudden increase of surface friction ramps up low-level wind shear. The exact track of the compact center of the cyclone is still uncertain. The majority of forecast models simulate a landfall in Denmark towards the end of the forecast period, which could result in a dramatic increase of wind speeds in a confined area in northwestern Germany near its back-bent occlusion. Since it is unclear how much deep convection will be involved and if this will happen at all until Wednesday 06 UTC, no level 2 was issued.

Amen, Just a line of CB's to my west.. Not moving at all.

We had a little rain today. Not even a slight breeze here.

Any update on this? How is it still looking? My brain breaks when we have a large low like this coming in with the Jet playing silly at the same time.. Just too much for me to look at with any confidence.

Ill go with.. There wont be any.