Tbh, I trust estofex a lot. Every year they are almost spot on every time. ( Sometimes can be hit and miss regarding UK potential ) but for the rest of euro, its normally very accurate.
If they don't have a warning for us ( L1 or higher ) then I pretty much scrub any chances of a good storm.
That being said, We do have a warm pool of air moving in so I wouldn't be shocked if something did kick off in the south and southeast,
I cant see any obvious convergence so I suspect it would be surface based rubbish. But who knows.