Buriedundersnow

well today was rather pleasant after all the cloud we have had to endure and tomorrow is looking even better with the added fun of parts seeing showers breaking out late afternoon and into the evening the updated 12z WRF NMM is much the same as the 6z which I posted above so wont bother to post the charts the stirling weather station I check topped out at 24.2c and the polmont one topped out at 24.8c roll on tomorrow and lets see if we can breach 28c as looking at the WRF NMM it looks like central areas are set for the highest temps tomorrow and we topped out around 3c warmer than what was forecast for today heres how it sees the highest temps tomorrow then Wednesday it wants to see the warmer temps moving more east into fife, Edinburgh and Perthshire. I got out and cut my grass and that today needed done the growth this year is far greater than last year I hardly had to touch my grass last year and that's 4 times already this year hopefully we can get some lengthy dry weather as its doing my head in as well as the weeds they seem to be having a really good time this year and trying to over run the garden.

better day today with sun shining bright and not much cloud about lets just get a full day of it for us all. the two local sites the stirling one says its 22c and polmont is at 21.7c should we get a full day of sun will be good to see how they both fare and how high we can get considering we were only forecast 20-21c and we are already beating it and the latest weather forecast on the BBC is calling for 25 plus tomorrow and if it comes off sunny like they say I would dare to say some spots will get over 28c also looks like we might have the chance of some showers being triggered through the central belt going into late afternoon and evening we will just have to wait and radar watch to see if we can get anything electric coming from them. also looks like tomorrows daily maxima might be reached north of the border which will be good for a change as well. GFS 0.5 6z run showing a little cape over us with very little cap and shows some convective precipitation potential tomorrow in the charts below WRF also showing some convective precipitation for tomorrow evening with slightly better cape values and with no cap so hopefully we can get a small chance of getting something electric as the heat triggers off some showers even if its only a few flashes and bangs

well not the day I was hoping for I thought the cloud would break a bit more I managed to get a few fleeting glimpses of sun while I was in Dunfermline but was generally just high cloud and felt rather chilly don't know if that's all due to the cloud cover or due to me being burnt. don't know how Falkirk did during today sun wise as wasn't here but the two weather stations I check in the area stirling got to 18c and polmont hit 18.1c so would have been around that here as well. this isn't anything weather but anyone thinking about September might want to have a read http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/9324-trolling-trolling-trolling-dear-ms-jk-rowling

yeah defo nothing inspiring happening in Iceland but katla can go in a few days if it starts to rumble and hekla can go any time without warning we will just have to sit and see if anything does go bang.

not too bad a morning here it is a little cloudy but nothing too thick and the sun is trying to have a go at breaking through. really hope the cloud you's have in fife just now gets breaking up and dispersing as I am going to my mums for sunday lunch and it would be good to chill out in the garden with the sun beating down afterwards. stirling station sitting at 15.3c and polmont at 15.6c so it will be somewhere about that here just now lets get another warm day but with a little more sun coming out country wide to boost the temps that extra little bit. heres a few satellite images first is just after 9 then second is just after 11 and final one is just after 12 and to my eye it looks like the cloud may be thinning nation wide and some relative clear air just to our west hopefully some of that can invade as the day goes on

jet stream looking like it might be getting ready to get into a pattern of blowing over Iceland right into Europe again lets get another eruption on the go again just katla or something else with a bigger bang to it this time a little more excitement than some ash above you that you cant see and wouldn't even know was there and would be something to add a little intrigue to boring nothing happening sunny days.

CPC 6-10 day 500mb forecast charts showing high pressure just to our west CPC 8-14 day 500mb forecast chart showing high pressure moving more over us like the other day as well so should we be going down this pattern of high pressure moving more centrally over us it looks like it may stick around GFS 11 day 500mb forecast shows high pressure centred over us again like it did the other day so all good signs don't have access to extended ECM 500mb charts I think you need subscription to something to see them but with the CPC discussion showing both GFS and ECM in good agreement a couple of days ago and with the overall pattern not gaining any mobility then its probably a good certainty that both are still in agreement with the forecast pattern so looks like we may have some extended cracking summer weather on the way and should we manage to lose the cloud could really see some very decent temps in the coming weeks.

well today was hotter than yesterday the two localish weather stations I check stirling one got to 22.8c and the polmont one hit 22.9c so I would imagine it was sitting around that here as well. was pulling hedges today again and the humidity really hit hard was wet through with sweat pouring off me but thankfully that's it finished and I can get on and enjoy the heat now probably wont be too much sunbathing though I'm pretty pink already. was fairly cloudy to start but managed to get some good breaks in through the day so not too bad a day but hopefully the cloud breaks to let the heat really build as we move on.

well apart from a heavy shower around 3 its been a not too bad day wish it wasn't quite as warm and humid had to rip out hedges today and was sweating the nads aff quite a bit, hot weathers good when you don't have to do anything lol. my netweather 10 day forecast is showing an overnight minimum for going into sat 21st at 0.8c surely its not going to get that cold that far into june. don't know what exact temp I got to but the 2 weather stations locally I look at the stirling one was maximum 20.6c and the polmont one was 19.6c which is opposite to which was higher or lower the other day so it must be regional variation more than where they are placed.

that's a good thing to see for a change hopefully we will be able to get some highest daily maxima north of the border for a change hopefully the CFS 18z is on to something for next month as well although it will change next run its still a good thought

heres how all the models see things on Tuesday afternoon ECM GEM GFS UKMO NAVGEM JMA all have high pressure over head or close to by the west of us. the GFS 500mb for day 11 also has high pressure over us so models want it to stick around also the CPC 6-10 day 500mb forecast goes for high just off to our west which reading the discussion is in agreement with the ECM then the CPC 8-14 day 500mb forecast has the high moved more over top of us which agrees with the GFS 500mb chart but from reading the discussion it is based on a share of the GFS and ECM so must be good agreement coming from the models out to these days interesting times ahead with high pressure looking to take charge will just need to see if it does come off like this and if it does how long will it last. hopefully the rest of summer then we can get the BBQ's out and of course

I don't know what my temp was today as don't have a weather station but I have 2 that I check online one is for stirling which got to 19.3c today and the other one is for polmont which is roughly the same distance in the opposite direction probably a little closer and that got to 21.5c today some of that might be due to where they are placed but if not that's a decent temp variation for a relatively close distance. might be the variation like that which causes them to go with the lower number in the forecast as nobody in summer is ever disappointed if its hotter than forecast but if it was constantly 2 or 3 degrees lower than forecast people would be going mental at getting told it was gonna be 21c and it turned out to be 18c.

I think the temps the met office put out and what goes into the telly forecasts is just the minimum temp they expect it may get to that day as from what I remember all my life it always seems to get a little hotter than what is put out in the forecast more especially on sunnier days.

good to see theres something around today its gives hope. things look to have turned a little more south westerly so hopefully that stuff over Ireland can find its way towards the central belt and produce something of interest into the evening.

for anyone who might be interested the EDEN channel on satellite or cable is running LIFE ON FIRE programmes all day which are documentaries about volcanoes the programme about Iceland and there volcanoes is running at 6pm and again at midnight.

its been astonishing that we can drag up so much warm and humid air and get absolutely nothing from it electricity wise well I say astonishing but it is Scotland we are in yeah the set up in the models doesn't look half bad with high pressure looking to be around but from a lets see the weirdest possible out the weather point of view it does have similarities with this heights moving towards Greenland with a trough setting up in Scandinavia and possibility of it tapping into or linking with whats left over the arctic and bang snow in june. don't think with todays climate it could happen don't know if there is enough cold air up there compared to what there was in 1975 but I'm weird and would like to see it just to say snow in summer yes I witnessed that. anyway less talk about snow we still have another three months till we can think about seeing any falls at the earliest. I would really like to see something set up like last summer as it was a fairly decent summer compared to a lot we have had and got some really good heat on the go but two summers like that happening in a row is a slim chance at best I think. the current set up going later into summer might be of interest if we get stuck in a rut of low pressures running lower and stalling out to the south west as it would surely ramp up our chances of seeing some good beefy thunder and lightning with more heat building as the summer goes on. and on a last note and I know its june and I'm talking about winter already but this recent set up if we have it run on through summer could be a really good thing if we see a decent winter this time round as we can see from the current SST anomalies the north sea is running way warmer than usual due to the warm humid air being pumped up from the south also with the low pressures stalling to the south west theres got to be warmer water being pushed through the channel as well and hopefully we can keep these anomalies high right through into December. well that's a bit of a hodge podge post lol but I'm still a little snow starved after winter and need a hit lol.

more boring rain today and still no thunder or sparks. just had a shower move through and was hoping it was going to keep building and put on a show but it never got there still totally chucked it down though with pretty big drops so at least is was something to watch. cant believe we have been pulling in a decent amount of air from southern Europe and not getting anything out of it with all the rain moving south to north you would think there would be at least some electricity around even if it was short lived showers. lets just get a big daddy high over us now with masses of heat and hope for the mother of all break downs to end it off around end of august because all this waiting for something to happen and ending up with crap boring rain is getting a bit tedious now.

these two comments in that statement jumped out at me a bit could it be an unknown super volcano system that has started to show activity or is it a new magma plume working its way to the surface like a Yellowstone plume.

ESTOFEX forecast

all the chat today going from the models is about it all moving east and how it wont be as good as first forecast but taking the weather forecasts from yesterday wasn't it forecast for the first lot of rain to move up the west fringing into the south west and the western edge of wales then moving north into northern Ireland with the big stuff moving north but a little further to the east then after and from looking at the radar that's exactly how it looks to be playing out. so question is are the models wrong and till now its going exactly as forecasted?

20.3 with 64% humidity up here EDIT: make that 66% humidity now

3 o'clock analysis chart and you can see things starting to develop over the bay of Biscay and over spain

local weather station in stirling says its 20.8c so prob not far off that here either with some small fluffy clouds about but mainly good sunshine. heres a video I saw in the convective thread so thought I would pop it in here its a forecast from simon keeling calling for us to get some good storms tomorrow with southwest areas seeing the worst http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4KcbMe5o-k#t=498 now as we know storms are extremely hard to predict especially the way he is doing it but any encouragement is a good thing and hopefully tomorrow will come good for us EDIT: could someone please embed the videos for me thanks keep forgetting we are sharing now lol he thinks that north of England is looking good as well.

i'll bank that forecast I'm not quite in his high risk bit but I am in the bit where he reckons the storms will be and it would be good to get some good storms here for a change as usually don't get much

cracking pic of a big storm in Denver in the states yesterday lets hope come Saturday some of us will see a storm like this roll through