snow mad

Think you've just missed the point now sling your hook as this is an extremely interesting thread!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1 Yes Steve this chart is great

Could this be the warmest winter because of blocking and us being just too far west?

Would love to see the next frame

Fitting name you've given yourself ER. Can't believe anyone were pinning there hopes on an early freeze! Plenty of time left for the opi to be proved right as we're not even in winter yet

. I agree what is the point of it being light at 3.30am in the summer and getting dark by 9.30 pm then dark at 4pm mid winter hate it! And we would be more inline with europe

No Storms of note? MMMMMmmmmmmm

The way I read it BA means the ECM is higher through out period. The UKMO has its highest res upto 72 then its res drops off for the remainder! if that makes sense

I hope the ecm is right about the pv draining away as shown, this will be the best thing that has happened this winter for our cold prospects! I'm sure we had a period of waiting last year after the SSW had happened where we were seeing the pv drain away east making us endure a couple of weeks of crxp weather which seemed to go on a bit and people getting impatient then! It seems to me this year because of the stronger vortex we are just a little further down the road this year... but with the forecast strat warmings and on going ones we will have our cold but it's probably going to be the second week of feb leading to a long cold spring

Hi Nick how's the thumb? rather a large post for some one who's just severed his thumb! Lol!! (No offence ment!)

Greenie high coming in FI?http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&carte=1

I don't think BA was having a go! he was merely pointing out that it wasn't "just another low waiting in the wings" ... which is a good thing so people know what to look out for if colder weather is your thing

I'm sure your right and it won't work out like it shows BA but that is the best op run for a few days so thought it worth a comment! Got a sneaky feeling this zonal stuff isn't going to dominate for to long now the sun has calmed down! controversial I know but I think it does have a fairly close connection with the jet stream. Here's hoping. give it a couple of weeks anyway

Interesting 240 chart is this the start of some blocking from the east. early days hopefully a new trend http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

Wasn't the met hinting at a scandi high just a few days ago?

Will be interesting to see if in a couple of weeks, now the sun has calmed down a bit if the jet stream starts getting all wobbly again. That's my own theory anyway so don't shoot me down http://www.solen.info/solar/

Not winter yet

Is the sun supposed to be this active

Amazing isn't it how most peoples expectations have changed since the last few winters... I remember sitting through many winters in the 90's and 00's having dreamed about the chance of some snow! Now if we don't get snowmageden then the hole forum comes crashing down...(from a southern softy)

A decent covering here just south of Ipswich,. Biggest flakes of the winter so far (spring? whatever)

I'm personally not bothered what happens after the easterly I would just love to see this type of set up actually happen

Don't like this run it lets the atlantic back in at 264hrs http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=264&mode=0&carte=1

That would fit better with the ECM time scale of being about 24hrs behind UKMO Raw output then Ian??

I know that the gfs didn't pick up the under cutting signal but the fact that its not constantly showing a return to raging zonal pattern gives me the confidence to think that it won't pan out the way the ecm is predicting if you see what I mean?

Unfortunately your probably right BA about them clueless shame though I would love the 12 GFS to verify