snow mad

Hi Paul it may seem like glass half empty but from my position it’s reality. Lovely model watching but on the ground here has been a wash out. I still hope we get some of the white stuff but it has the feeling of one of those years. Hope is all we have the promised land keeps getting pushed back.

By the time we get there it will all be gone and we’ll be looking at the middle of February. Need to face facts every decent model run has been getting watered down as it approaches. There have been some fantastic Synoptics to view but in reality it’s been poor

Think you answered your own question about the despondency when you mentioned day 10. Unfortunately it’s always interesting at day 10.

Maybe Steve Murr was right about himself being 99% sure it wouldn’t happen.

It is only one set of runs but so far this winter the models have teased. Leading up to Xmas was the same as now. They keep pumping out great charts that seem to get heavily watered down until they’re barely noticeable in reality. So far from all the eye candy charts our winter has produced a prolonged cool and very wet period and four frosts. I think if we look back at this winter so far it’s been pretty ordinary and looks to be continuing that way.

Also prior to the ssw there was a disconnect between the trop and pv. So any return to normal doesn’t guarantee the return of zonality

Do we need any upstream amplification? If the chunk of pv pushes its way into Europe. When the pv slides back into its normal winter home when a high pressure is in Greenland the pv has no trouble dislodging it. What with the jet not being as strong this year surely that’s a possibility.

We’ve had one frost and rain all day. Glad someone is experiencing some cold! Hopefully our turn will come with the later stages of ecm showing some promising signs of the ssw imprinting on the troposphere.

Hasn’t even been wintry here yet. One frost. Some fog now looking at some drizzle. What a shame.

I always love your analysis catacol it really is brilliant. Just such a shame the nearer term isn’t colder. With 5/6 degrees for the coming week and rain on the east coast this really is torture. Keep up the great work!

Didn’t someone in the early days of the strat thread do something on weather before and after a SSW. And worked out that there was almost as much chance of having cold weather in the lead up to the SSW as there is after? Or did I dream that?

I really hope the 06z is on the right track. I know we had the 2018 beast and 2009/10 and even 91 before that. But from a purely IMBY point of view none of those compare to the 80s great winters with a good amount of snow in conjunction with strong east north east winds which created huge drifts that cut of 10s of miles of roads here in Suffolk. 91 was ok but only lasted a few days. In the 80s they were still clearing B roads for two weeks after the thaw had set in. So for me I think that we are due a proper once in a 40 year winter this time round with large amounts of snow coupled with strong winds.

Surely be convection off that for east anglia and kent

If you watch it with the animation on it looks like day 11 would see that low over Iberia sweep into the med and an easterly quickly followed by a Greenland high. Hopefully a new trend

Believe The Sun online did a bit about uk being buried soon.

Serious amount of rain in Ipswich

Have to agree with Nick here ^^... it seems to me they write these 30 dayers in line with likely climatology and as we had the ssw it put more weight in possibly being colder. So as we got closer to feb and the models came into the more reliable and it was clear that there was no chance of it becoming much colder or extreme cold they adjusted accordingly. Now we are getting ever closer to spring it is much more likely that we won’t have a cold spell or extreme cold so that’s what they’ve gone with and it’s hard to argue that the models are suggesting otherwise. So although I think there is still room for one last chance of cold shot if I were writing the update it would sound very much like the one the meto have put out. A real shame as I’ve wasted hours of my life this year getting excited to only have a dusting on one day. Grrrrr.....

I would love that to be right but there seems to be a disconnect between how we are reading the charts in here, as I’ve been using a weather app which shows only rain from this and all winter it’s been more accurate than most interpretations on here. Not a dig just an observation.

Just goes to show how far we’ve come. Which is not very, what with all the ensembles, ops and anomaly charts that show something for days only to flip a few days out is almost comical. My goodness this is frustrating.

You’re not missing out as It seems the falling snow is washing away the lying snow now ?

Medium sized flakes not heavy enough to over come the warmth in the ground from yesterday hopefully it peps up a bit soon

Light rain here just east of Ipswich.

No unfortunately not, maybe this will be a snap after all. Real shame. Still it is spring soon so looking forward to some warmth (not that I think it will get warm, just not cold enough for snow after the weekend) and I for one would take a 4/5 day really cold snap/spell and then maybe something more seasonal anyway. Just a bit to late in the season. This time of year Some places in Spain has already had temps we would envy in summer so it won’t take long to mix out the cold when it turns south east/east. Really was hoping for something epic!

Beat me to it!

Now that’s what I call a cold pool. -2024