I think there's still time for the shortwave to be somewhere else (more or less favourable for us) as Even from last nights charts it has moved location from where it was originally programmed to be.. I think we all new there would be a shortwave somewhere in the flow from the east and as yet I don't think they have it's location nailed so give it time.. I also think this slider scenario is a real headache for the models so until this event has occurred I don't think the models will have the shortwave modelled correctly
Yes BA that shortwave is a worry because this is similar to what happened in Dec.. As time got nearer that shortwave developed over Germany to scupper that spell.. Lets hope this isn't going the same way
I Assume they pick up the general theme without the shortwaves then as it gets closer it can gradually sniffs out the shortwave spoilers which obviously water down anything from the east unfortunately
I can understand if Steve is less sure today as the models this year have all been crap at some point so anybody who's willing to second guess what the models will show next have my respect... Keep it up exciting viewing tonight
and as if by magic she appears http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1 long way off of course hopefully will be a new trend over the coming week
Slightly disappointed by this event so far... For us on the east coast I thought this undercutting senario was going to be great but as it stands the temps are just too marginal for us in this sort of set up.... Give me a scandi high north easterly set up anytime.. Our 4 inches from a lucky shower Thursday night has thawed quite a bit over night. We didn't see anything from the front yesterday and the snow tomorrow looks like its gonna be washed away come Monday morning... Great!! All this model watching and getting excited and come the day it turns out to be nothing unusual for the time of year
Slightly disappointed by this event so far... For us on the east coast I thought this undercutting senario was going to be great but as it stands the temps are just too marginal for us in this sort of set up.... Give me a scandi high north easterly set up anytime.. Our 4 inches from a lucky shower Thursday night has thawed quite a bit over night. We didn't see anything from the front yesterday and the snow tomorrow looks like its gonna be washed away come Monday morning... Great!!
What about the GEM Still think the ecm has moved towards ukmo tonight and its so finely balanced it could still end up sending energy under the block... and if you look right through the FI its obviously picked up a signal for the block to be a lot stronger as although its moved further to the east than we would like its still there at 240hrs disrupting that massive low and dare I say at 264hrs might be of interest..
Think your going to be wrong. At 1st I thought the same as you but if you look at the jet profile compared to the 06z at 90hrs it,s splitting more and I can see the block holding better and even building north