Dampdorset82

I wouldnt get to caught up in this weekend although th further east and north you are the higher chance of wintry conditions. For our region we need prolonged cold to build over us so when a break down does try to happen the result will be heavy persistant snow. My thoughts looking at the current output is that cold will build over us but no break down in site as of yet, cross model agreement support this, what this does show are Low Pressures under cutting which again will produce snow mid next week. Im 70% of the above scenario. As I said dont rely on snow for our region this weekend let the cold establish itself first.

This is purely down to the positioning of the low pressure and the orientation. If the low slips just a bit further south then theres an opportunity but I dont hold much for snow in the south.....at this stage

My thoughts exactly, temps 3-4c higher for the M4 south. I would expect snow/freezing rain on the back edge....the biggest concern will be icy conditions for the south later in the night looks very dangerous indeed!

Havent seen that yet....I will have a look thanks for the heads up!

Not for oxford south its not. Temps are actually 4c higher for that region than the 12z compared to the 18z so rain here im afraid......on this run

Exactly, the UKMO is coming on board the GEM is looking positive. With the differences in the ensembles suite it would be near impossible to produce a scenario so looking across the models and seeing agreement is where I would pick up a trend. The ensembles of course will be all over the place depending on how it places the PV and with the displaced PV at the moment the output of blocking and colder condtions is where we will be heading in the med term..

Will be interesting to look at the Fax charts

I would expect sleet at best. Dont get confused with later in the run im just talking about Sarturday at this stage

From what the models are showing I would say 80% sure, I would say maybe the far south east would get light snow at that point. The uppers are close to 0c.south and west of that area

It must be said....from the M4 north. The south of that would be just rain/sleet

In terms of temp and conditions for sleet and snow the mets confidence is creeping. Just the PPN is the major uncertainty at this stage......of course the conditions are quite likely to differ in the next 24 hours. But confidence seems to be slowly creeping up

I understand your point......My comment was regarding the output being shown now and not what I want it to do (being push 90 miles south) of course we would expect milder conditions down south but with such small surface area in the UK and sea temps not to different from the North we miss out constantly....this isnt a moan its a fact Im not fussed either way mild or cold just not freezing rain lol

Just remeber SSW will only allow heights to build and will not promise a feed of cold air. If we fall on the wrong side of a block then game over!

for oxford north, selfishly I would just see sleety rain. So although im happy for the folks up north not to pleased for us down south.

Indeed they dont, I think there maybe a few more twists. There needs to be caution with models dealing with this set up as proven in Dec.

Suprise suprise, no snow shown for the south..........Again! Great looking charts for cold and there seems to be more upgrades then down. Also all models begining to fall in to line with each other.

Not at all, they are being carefull. They have some confidence or they would not of mentioned it. They are far to wise to be saying get sledges out for next weekend that would be crazy. cross model agreement by Wednesday about cold/snow then start to be specific.

havent models been updated since 1993? if so they would have been updated by scientists with knowledge of our changing environment so Im not sure I agree. I think what has occured are more extreme events and they are becoming more frequent and that is where on occasions we are left in the dark......alittle

so we have shutter saying it will start to regroup in the next few weeks and snowm4n saying its going to take some time to recover? sometimes this thread can be useful other times confusing.

The models look very boring nothing to suggest cold at the moment. Although a SSW has been predicted there is nothing to suggest a cold spell at this stage. The high pressure we have to our SW at the moment will be crucial in its positioning to how our weather will pan out. Once the SSW has occured I would expect a change to show up very quickly on the output and an evolution to cool/colder conditions as the Atlantic weakens.

Id have to disagree with "No wonder the text forecasts now are more vague and broad - its to cover their backsides from criticism for somehow saying "they got it all wrong" They have been so broad because the models have been so inconsistant with medium to long range forecasts recently they have actually just been forecasting what signals they have been observing..

My apologies, i thought you were referring to the GFS 06z. I can now see what you mean.

There is nothing to undercut. My understanding is to be an undercut the LP system cuts under a HP system to the north and that isnt the case here.

ECMWF and JMA @ 192hrs are almost identical in the positioning of the high pressure two well regarded models.........a trend ..........possibly!

its not by chance we get northern blocking there are numerous factors along with presicion timing along side them. Im far from convinced about the SSW. No doubt globally yes it plays a significant part but for us with a powerful ocean at our doorstep we need a little more help then a SSW.