Dampdorset82

still not 1 flake here in Poole!!

not a flake here in poole yet, must be that snow shield we have here!!

100% spot on

If for example the ECM had consistantly predicted mild sw weather and last min changed to cold that would have been consistantly wrong however if the ECM was forecasting every 2 out of 3 runs cold you would say its trending towards cold.....which I would be happier with I agree a mix of the 2 would be best but that never happens........unfortunately

Rain here in Poole temps 6.9c currently............lovely

it looks like hampshire east and a line north and east of that. I count Dorset as central southern england and we have rain also

The difference will be if its consistantly right or wrong. Consistancy is not always good its more about trends

Im from Poole to and tbh I think we wont get much snow mainly rain it appears. As for the rest of our region the higher and the further north and east you are obviously the higher risk.

People get told to back up there thoughts with charts? im confused with the rules in here sometimes

This set up must be causing some real head aches at the met tonight with regards to warnings. In your opinion and not the mets how do you see things playing out for our region?

I think we need to look at the bigger picture with regards to snowfall predictions. Models will produce a forecast based on data at tha specific time. Each run navigates the low in different directions which even by 100 miles wll be significant to fall locations. What is clear is that the low has never been far off the mark for our region and by the 12z run be at least 70% confident of a final path. Im happy that snow will be present for our except west devon and cornwall. In short look at snow predictions from last night to this morning and see how much uncertainty there is. Best bet is not the models but a lampost! Friday night model watching.....what more could you ask for and I think you may need something stronger than wine lol

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html GFS via wetterzentrale

down on the coast here in Poole I expect nothing but rain and sleet.....very frustrating

Im from the south coast (dorset) and annoyingly the charts just show rain rain wet bloody rain!!!ahhhhhhhhhhhh

The snow risk is risk is showing in nearly all the models now, with exception to the far south coast and SW. I cant post charts as im on my phone!

I still cant see snow for the south coast though.....

Indeed the NAE will just be in range to forecast with confidence. The issue is with the positioning of the LP moving in 100 miles north or south could make so much difference and its still not pinning it down. Is GFS have a nightmare or is it head and shoulders above the other models......interesting eh?!

short term its nots bad potential for snow away from coasts sat night/sunday morning, mid range milder weather pushing back in mid next week FI is FI who knows

i dont mind snow if sticks around for a while I dont like the sludge after id take rain anyday. I like to see fresh falling snow but not the Ice rink after. 2010 looked like drunks all over the place lol

hes played down the cold becuase there hasnt been any cold.....so spot on then.

progressively the colder is becoming short lived and I think alot of folks have been caught up in FI thinking a cold run was in the bag. The truth of it was the Met never had confidence this weekend for anything severe and FI is FI and like it does its changing!

The 06z is zonal zonal zonal from Monday onwards!

Snow is not certain by any means sunday. Its possible but not probable. The key is the position of the LP and how much cold air cuts in behind the PPN knife edge stuff really

Exactly, Of course the likes of the moores and salisbury plain north dorset I would think will see snow. On personal note the likely hood for our region to see snow on saturday must be less than 30% at this stage.

There must be confidence of high Ice risk Sat night once the rain clears. What I will say is this...........mid next week!!