Dampdorset82

Sucked into the most interesting chart evolution in my life time. If its snow your after your really in the wrong country. Im sorry but I cant understand the moans the science behind the changes are great.

I agree it wouldnt take much, but there is alot of talk of potential but potential doesnt mean anything at the moment. Im not excited by this specific run in the reliable time frame 0hrs - 144hrs. I can see heights building round us again but they can POTENTIALY back off again and disapoint many. Im interested in the evolution alot.

Am i the only that cant see a cold potential from the 12z run? I see a deep area of low pressure that will be bringing in wet and windy weather and a serious issue for flooded areas? Im talking about a reliable and semi reliable time frame here.

just to sum it up..... being a meteorologist is like being a scientific bookmaker!

just to sum it up..... being a meteorologist is like being a scientific bookmaker!

I agree to a certain extent some posts are frustratingly wrong. However the charts have been very mixed and I think a lot of the time people do generaly comment that when the charts it will be cold and and when it looks milder it will be milder. Unfortunately we are not all professionals and this is not a professional model forum its for everyone to comment and enjoy.

So it appears afrer the very cold model runs recently people have taken that as the norm and class 2-4c as mild! The pattern appears different but the trend hasnt - Cold with potential for snow later in the run as fronts push in and stall. The models are changing on every run - It has and will continue to do so even when the cold air is over us. I am still very happy with the runs today and am really enjoying the uncertanty waking up and seeing whats showing next. The facts are - The ens are all over the place later in the run Colder than average temps still widely forecast for next week FI is all over the place along with the PV which means THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE GREATLY AND THEY WILL!! Just remember we are not seeing LP after LP soaking us so enjoy the fun and the unpredicable!

You guys in Hampshire have small measures lol The charts look great a long way off but its rare we even see charts like this so defo worth making a fuss over

Nice to see the whole of dorset missing out once again!! On the upside Dorset could get a lot of snow from the easterly set up

Its the southern half of the UK that gets the snowiest weather from an easterly and Im fulling expecting a lot of snow in dorset over the coming weeks. But i think a lot of the UK will see snow from this.

lol......the 18z certainly seems to be a downgrade up to 180 hr.

what does that mean???

Agreed, The bigger picture is what we need to focus on. I watch the models and they really would confuse even the most experienced forecaster even within 7 days recently 1 run will tell you your going to be snowed in and the next run shows just cool conditions. However over the past couple of days there has been more consistancy between models and well worth focusing on later this week and high chance of a block forming early next week. Important to keep a close eye on the NAO and AO data that posts stronger signals. I dont usually ramp but im getting excited regarding January more especially because I live in Dorset where it snows in every other county but this one!

Tricky in the sense that the models are unreliable or due to an event of some kind?

I agree, we could talk about the minor to major situations that can affect even a small area of the UK that has been forecast a specifc let alone the island as a whole. There needs to be a high degree of perspective when talking weather models and the science behind them. Thats not to say dont enjoy a good debate and the odd ramp afterall its our passion of weather that brings us here. Back to the models a few of the big guns are pointing to colder conditions @ 144hrs JMA ECMWF and UKMO. GFS is stand alone to a certain degree with its placement of the vortex. Im very intrigued as to how tomorrows GFS compares to the above 3.

GFS ENSEMBLES - From about the 5/12/12 Dorset has a variance of 15-20c @ 850 hpa. You could just about role a dice and have as much luck predicting the models after the next 7 days.

So far the GFS points to a cool trend to the N UK and milder conditions to the south. I have to say the GFS really not going for any cold outbreaks at this time. The concerning situation for me regarding any sustained cold are the HP's. One through spain and the other in the mid atlantic. This really prevents any type of trough forming favoring the UK. That said over the mid to long range the Low pressure at 240hrs over the UK has support from quite a few other models but that is a long way off.

The ECM 240 has the scandi high and low pressure to the south The GFS 240 has pressure building to the East and low pressure to the south southwest. Not to different when you think how models vary greatly at this stage. 240hrs could be an early trend lol! Great eye candy though as per my previous post the models will through up some stormers as it gets to grip once the energy from the PV has passed southeast of us and trys to deal with the cold plunge and pressure heights around us

I wouldnt say mild I would say less cold as the models have been consistantly showing. However what hasnt been consistant are specific pressure gradiants or mid term output. My opinion is once we lose the energy from the split vortex pressure will build towards the west of green land and then we will see a colder conditions towards late December. One thing is for sure the models should through up some stormers from time to time trying to get a handle on it!

I think people need to stop saying lets wait for the real cold mid dec onwards. We are all struggling with this weekend even the senior forcasters at the MO have struggled with this short time frame. It will be chilly this weekend I wouldnt say cold. Then there are many factors to look out for with regards to mid decemeber onwards more especially the cold strat and the PV. Although the CFS/BOM is suggesting colder weather later on we still dont have this weekend nailed down. I think lets keep perspective and not get to excited with what could potentialy be a really a great thread (its very difficult to pick out fact rather than desire) moan over......

I agree, This time last week there were hints of slightly milder coming in and lots of people said its just the models cant handle it it will upgrade, now we have compltely flipped we are now looking at only hints of cold weather .

Everyone has there own thoughts on the model output this afternoon and evening all with different thoughts. I think if we see a cold trend lots of people always say the trend is there and always try and discount the mobile/milder conditions. However the trend is there for milder and really not that cold conditions yes it may get chilly between the 2nd -6th with snow over high ground in the north but i think we are clutching at straws. Before anyone asks I am looking at all models and output, I do like colder weather and no im not trying to upset anyone. Im trying to be honest lets recognise the trend for less cold contiditions....I have said trend and not any specifics I hope im wrong!

it seems every single model doesnt know whats going on! there is a trend but the trend is for a weak cooler period or a short cold period followed by a break down. I certainly am not going to read anything further than 96 hrs. People following the charts must be having a break down there have been no consistancy in an overall pattern. Also I must ask the question why people bin a milder run and strongly believe a 2010 or a similar event is going to happen. I think a step back and think short term is the way forward

Thursday and Friday maybe not, but certainly Saturday and Sunday and GFS if anything shows more PPN in the southern half of the UK. Such a long way out to make such predictions though.

I agree, however the southcoast has as much chance as the rest of the UK of seeing snow. I dont see the south coast as an exception at all.