Dampdorset82

At present the trend is still on course for a cooler showery period, IMO any snowfall (probably flurries) will be limited to northern and northeastern areas and higher areas of wales and the Penines although sleet possible in some areas in the east. My attention is really looking to mid to late december to start the models producing the conditions for a much colder and snowier conditions favoring January at this stage. I really dont want to put a downer on the start of dec but honestly wont be as cold as many hope - It will be cool with a wind chill making it feel cold possibly - windchill. Just want to mention the PV split is looking great in the long term and will take sometime to recover!

How will this affect the pattern? will this increase or decrease the potential for cold? Thanks

thanks

Whats a CW? thanks

I can only assume its hasnt coped with that run very well at all. As we have seen its been an up and down set of models recently.

GFS ensemble for dorset doesnt really get that cold........the 850hpa upto the 5th is trending towards 0c and avg air temp 5-7c. I expect the op run to show signs of a block on the 12z but maybe not as cold as the 06z.

GFS ensemble for dorset doesnt really get that cold........the 850hpa upto the 5th is trending towards 0c and avg air temp 5-7c. I expect the op run to show signs of a block on the 12z but maybe not as cold as the 06z.

Another messy ops chart, Im not sure ive seen such inconsistancy in the mid range (GFS). I think all anyone can say is it will be a mild week with temps cooling on Friday. Any further than that is anyone guess. I look at the PV and believe the split that is currently showing is in the wrong place for any HLB over greenland. The big question is what will happen to the east of the UK and i think thats where we need to focus.Im not convinced a prolonged block will come about in early december but the the split in the PV and the Strat situation is encouraging for late Dec in January