Dampdorset82

Poole, Dorset aka the least snowiest place in Europe

sounds like someone isnt feeling very festive tonight lol Whether its in my location or not Im happy to watch events all over the world and UK and look at the science behind them I know to some people its zzzzzzzz but I enjoy it. Plus as a bonus the low risk tornado risk is for my location ........

Agreed for cold ECM not great but for consistancy at this time its doing a little better. I do have concerns regarding the SSW, I just dont feel its going to go in favor this time round. The PV is sat firm and powerfull over Greenland and I think it will need a really big phase to weaken it completey and remove it to let heights build over greenland and along with fragments of it potential blocking heights around us im just not convinced it will fall into place.

The GFS isnt pretty but compare the GFS 240hrs and the ECMWF 240hrs and the eastern pattern is completely different. I'm more inclined to go with the ECM at this point as it has been more consistant with a similar pattern on the last few runs where the GFS is swinging left right and centre into FI. Im sure there will be a few extradordinary runs over the weekend to be viewed!

Indeed, If your not excited by this weekends weather potential then you never will be - I mean storms, potential tornados and snow fantastic - lets hope there are no injuries as a result! Will certainly be glued to all radars throughout the weekend!

Indeed, The polar vortex should be placed over the north of canada/far west to northwest of greenland and siberia.

This is normal think of it as large cold pool of air moving down to mild sea temps it will certainly produce some initial energy. The important pattern we need is blocking coming from the north rather than the east. if its from the north it will block that energy from the east it will just go up against it.......again.

Interestingly the ECMWF 240hrs has a big shift west for that russian high! what concerns me with that is there is far to much energy in the atlantic and we will see a repeat of earlier this month if it continues = lots of flooding + frustration

Id have to disagree the ECM is considerably different to the GFS in its later output frames.

its more from a point of view that for colder selfish reasons bad but for peoples quality of life and the natural/wildlife around us its very good. I like the cold and snowy but there is a lot at stake for so many id happily go without it

It could be a lot worse to be honest. If we were to have cold conditions that everyone is so deperate to have the likely hood is that we would have snow and where there is snow there would be a thaw and the resulting thaw would be du to rain pushing in from the west. I think thats how it could be worse if you bring cold into the equation. The models are showing a respite for peoples lively hoods and not to mention the british wildlife not being able to breed. I for one think its great to see charts like this at the moment for numerous reasons........

I agree nothing too cold showing but again nothing mild either( average I guess) on the models at present but remember only 3 days ago we had a very mild sw flow for xmas day. I would expect to see things change slightly. Im not cold/mild bias but at this point I am dry bias!

I have to pull you up on that! Southern Dorset is the most snowless place in the UK. .......Sorry mods

I know 204hrs is FI but how can the PV be placed over scotland producing -13c and the south coast be 7/8c? crazy

There isnt a strong enough ridge over the atlantic so there isnt a strong enough block. Agreed heights are strong but need that ridge in the atlantic

Due to the high sea surface temperatures +2-3.5c higher then average north of iceland makes the air flow very unstable and would produce some potent LP's dropping off. Completly plausable at this stage.

the GFS 12Z has done exactly what I thought expect the 18z to be along the lines of ecmwf.

Exactly, the pattern change over the Xmas period has changed alot. The upgrades for the reliable are good the AH is moving south as you say to allow the low pressure to move east. I wouldnt be suprised by the time the 18z roles out there will be a few suprises for Xmas day!

The cold is being pushed further away in this run. I think it would be fair to assume there would need to be a major change in synoptics at such short range for cold (snowy) conditions this year which is highly unlikely but not enirely impossible. Still im interested to see how mild we could get from this showing.

I live in dorset and the majority of the day times temps are 12c = MILD.

Just to confirm the SSW is a prediction not a definite.

the EC32 has got to be on par with the GFS with being utterly useless with its consistancy recently GFS/EC32 = PINCH OF SALT!

I hope the local authorities are putting out the relevant warnings out west it looks like its going to be very wet and windy....not good for Xmas

I agree to a certain extent but it is very frustrating when people cluctch at straws this a weather forum a not snow forum. If Ive heard screams potential or background signals when the models are quite clearly showing westerly winds and no sign of snow is just wrong. I agree yes people want snow but dont make scenarios up. Look at the models look at the pattern and comment on them dont say "that west flow is SCREAMING POTENTIAL i think i will get 10 foot of snow in 3 weeks time!!" (a bit dramatic but thats how frustrating it is ) edit - Yes we are trying to learn but lets learn then comment and as a result we are losing some excellent knowlegable meterologists so its not just my view at all

But other than that your enjoying model watching and winter?