SE Blizzards
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Posts posted by SE Blizzards
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Yes its a great run, I particularly liked the ene flow sourced in northern Russia, if that showed up mid winter this place would have imploded with excitement.
That has the SM Scandi high developing just in time,but its the CFS and everyone knows what I think of it!
I think everyone on here feels the same way nick about the CFS.
Just posted it for a little bit of fun really
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If Carlsberg did model runs for coldies up to approx 600h (it goes a bit pear-shaped after that), then this would probably be the best model run in the world.....
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Not so mild now at 216h!! Spring put on hold once more??
And at 240h the whole of the UK is under -6 / -8 uppers
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Hasn't the CFS had us under a BFTE all winter? Or was that last year?
I have only been viewing that particular model over the last 12 months or so. I know it's not regarded highly in many peoples opinion but i do recall it suggesting a cold spell of weather in March for quite some time now. I guess it has to be right sooner or later.
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RAMP TIME!
In the reliable time frame as well.
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Latest CFS run, and the cold just keeps on coming until the start of April! I'm sure that model is Anti-mild!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=96&mode=2&carte=0&run=10
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Cracker of a control run with reload chances...
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0
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wow - just had a look - that is an incredible run! lol .....interesting!
Yes, only probably is that the CFS is often regarded as cannon fodder. But the cold theme it's showing for March has been a consistent one for weeks now.
One thing for sure is that if we do end up seeing a cold outbreak in March then the model will have gone up in a little in my estimation.
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Yet again the CFS remains extremely bullish on a very very cold March!
Time and time again it keeps on throwing out these amazing charts (for coldies of course), and if you look at the whole run there is no real sign of a warm up until late March!
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One word for the GFS 12Z run.... INSANE!!!!
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Yep, feet solidly on Terra Firma - however this has been showing it's hand for a few days now. Also, the start of the northerly comes around 204 hours so not in deep la la land!
Be interesting to see how things develop over the next few days or so. I always class March as a bonus month with regards to cold/snow. Ok, ice days are almost certainly out of the question, especially as u move further into March, but i have seen snow on many occasion, and maybe this year will see a sting in winters tail! One thing for sure, viewing the models there seems to be no early signs of spring at the moment, but as we all know, things can change. Interesting few days ahead!
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I would imagine our NW contingent are starting to get rather interested with these charts!
I would imagine it will be more than just our NW friends who start to get interested if some of these charts verify! Of course, its all in la la land so feet firmly on the ground for now.
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Welcome to the 1st week of spring everyone!
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how do you make that out? the end of the run has the atlantic and mild springlike weather yet again predicted. talk about selective chart picking!
http://www.wetterzen...n/fsavneur.html
besides, spring isnt a weather type, its a season that starts on march 1st!
Maybe there is milder temps at the end of the run, but that's deep into FI so good luck with that!
And by the looks of things it seems spring won't be starting on march 1st this year, or should i say it wont be feeling much like spring anyway!
But if u can find me a chart for march 1st that has a warm spring look about it then i will stand corrected! -
Well well well, another GFS run, and another big fat NO to spring!!!
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I wonder if the ECM will wander off in this direction in its later stages. Soon to find out....
Certainly something to keep an eye out for.
If it doesn't make it on this run then maybe over the next day or 2.
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Following the operationals only, it seems that the pendulum has swung away from a -NAO at day 10. The majority of the ensembles disagree however with the 12z op's prognosis of the further outlook. How useful the ensembles are at the moment though is open to question.
Ensemble mean at day 10...
BOM looks quite similar too at day 10...
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This isn't a wind up guys but i hope that sits there all spring and summer.
This isn't a wind up but i hope this sits there all of march!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=312&mode=1
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The mild trend in FI over the last few days has been somewhat halted, with some colder members now starting to appear! (Gavin won't be happy)!
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New NAVGEM model fantastic @ 144h
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CMA at 168h... majority of UK -8 to -12 uppers
If the ECM would have showed this earlier this place would be in meltdown!
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GEM 12Z has UK in an Easterly flow at 144h with some deeper cold brewing to the East...
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nope its not going to be long lasting if gfs 12z is believed!!
And after it's shambolic performance over the last few days is it to be believed??????
But if u can find me a chart for march 1st that has a warm spring look about it then i will stand corrected!
Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards
Yes, some quite incredible 12z runs today. Cannot believe we are heading for April and STILL there is no end in sight of the cold weather (in the reliable time frame anyway)! I have a feeling the 'mildies' might be seething at this present time!
EDIT: And the cold keeps coming on the GFS 12Z well into FI. Unbelievable jeff!!