SE Blizzards
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Posts posted by SE Blizzards
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ECM @ 168, and still no real mild weather, in fact still decidedly chilly
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but the gfs has twice as many runs as the others so its bound to appear more irratic
Yes, i guess i can understand what you are saying, but i just don't really rate the GFS as a top performing model at times! I even think it was over taken by the no longer with us mighty Nogaps model in verification stats at one point during the winter. That says it all really.
Meanwhile the ECM 12Z has an unsettled cool look about it early next week...
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To put it bluntly some GFS ensembles bring mild weather to the whole of the UK by Sunday night.
As we all know the GFS had a wretched winter, and going by the last few outputs it's thrown out it doesn't seem to be improving much as we go into spring either as every single run is completely different to it's last, so can we trust it? It really is hard to take it seriously right now.
I know some of us have our 'favourite' models (especially of course when they show the weather of our choice
) but the GFS is certainly not mine and has gone well down in my estimation.Just seen the UKMO 12Z that gavin posted and that certainly doesn't scream anything mild that's for sure.
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The law of physics says it will at some point, the charts that Gavin posted are what we need too see happening as we approach the reliable.
Ah, the good old 'reliable'!
Yes of course physics says it will turn milder, but who's to say we might not have a cool and unsettled second part to spring instead of a milder/warm one?
I did say a few days ago i wasn't buying into a quick change to milder conditions and wouldn't believe any milder weather was coming until it was showing in the reliable, and to be honest there still isn't any real mild weather showing until FI.
It's been snowing here for most of the day albeit lightly and although i do love cold/snowy weather with a passion even i have to admit that now i could do with a little warmth, we are 5 weeks into spring after all. It's just a shame that there's not much of that on the horizon at present.
Some of the models were suggesting quite a quick route to mild weather only a couple of days ago but looking at them today i feel it's going to be a bit of a slow painful process i'm afraid.
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Peter Gibbs giving it large just said the mild weather is getting pushed back. We was expected it to reach the UK on Monday but now looks very likely to reach us much later next week.
Will it ever reach us?
Meanwhile i see the GFS continues to chop and change with every single run.
What's happened to today's UKMO 12Z?
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.... except the teleconnections do not support that, all of which suggest pattern change, not pattern interupt!
itll change next run no doubt. it was showing some southern heat in fi earlier, i guess thats gone too...
Yes, the differences between each run on the GFS at the moment is ridiculous. I seriously can't take that model seriously anymore (if that makes sense)!
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Snow event in 10 days time from the GFS? I thought it was supposed to be getting milder?
This is why many people have no time for the GFS after day 5/6. Cannon fodder!!
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-10 uppers in parts of N England and EA in the middle of April? Is that even possible?
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No respite for the mildies on the ECM 12Z as the cold continues to dominate right till the end of its run! Staggering!
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GFS 12z ensembles
Lots of scatter from the 8th onwards on all the ensembles at the same point precipitation increases slightly that could signal a return to winds from a westerly direction bringing milder and at times unsettled weather
Probably the coldest set of Ens seen at the end of March/start of April for many a year!
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GFS 12Z Ens will be out shortly, and having a quick look through each of the members it seems the cold has been extended a day or so further than what the 6Z Ens were suggesting.
It just continues to go on and on!
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Sometimes, no words are needed...
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As per usual it looks like the GFS wants to bring in milder weather later in FI. How many weeks/months has it been doing this for?
Until i see milder weather being shown in the 'Reliable' i'm not buying absolutely any of it!!!
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GEM backing the idea of this N/NE'ly later next week...
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Oops, i'm getting my months mixed up. Must be because it still feels like winter! lol
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June 1975, snow stopped play in derby
Ah, 1975... A great year indeed. Not only did it snow in parts of the UK in the summer, it was also the year i was born!
Good old mildie Peter Gibbs on the BBC news channel just said no end in sight of the cold weather with the Easterly theme continuing until the middle of April.
Wonder what the 12Z's will bring?
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Nothing remotely mild on the GFS 6Z from start to finish.
http://www.meteociel...p?&ech=6&mode=1
http://www.meteociel...p?&ech=6&mode=0
Edit: Been snowing lightly here on and off all morning. Who would have thought BST starts in just a few hours time.
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Has spring finally woken up?
GFS 18Z run to be huge mild outlier in the Ens in FI?
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I know i've been banging on about a possible cold N'ly/NE'ly outbreak for a couple of days now, but there really is quite a signal now from various models for this to happen, albeit at slightly different times.
It really is looking bleak for those that are wanting any warmth. The first part of April seemingly wants to go down the same route as March. Quite unbelievable.
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It just never ends!!!!!
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A good outlook from GFS tonight with the northern blocking easing
GFS is now also hinting at pressure becoming lower over Greenland
Temperatures recover to normal or above normal for many
Slowly but surely things are turning better during April and its going along with the met offices thought's earlier
That's upto April 12th
Trouble is that them milder charts you shown are all 11+ days away, as has been the case now for what seems an eternity.
Nothing remotely mild in the reliable on the Gfs 12Z, and big hints of something brewing from the NE next weekend.
Unbelievable cold pool of air for the time of year flooding out of the Arctic and reaching our shores.
You would be forgiven if u thought this was a chart for the middle of winter, but no, its April! Brrrr!!
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Seems to be quite a bit of support for the cold to continue for quite a while yet on the 18Z Ens, with the possibility of a NE'ly outbreak in FI.
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ECM day 10 mean.
No real hints there of anything mild with the Zero uppers line well south.
Spring still looks an age away on that chart.
) but the GFS is certainly not mine and has gone well down in my estimation.
Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes, if it is mild air u are wanting then the ECM is a disaster!