SE Blizzards
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Posts posted by SE Blizzards
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Can anyone tell me how the BOM model was looking tonight? I seem to be having a few problems with my computer at present and cant get on to the meteociel site
Maybe the same gremlins that seem to be in the GFS model have made their way onto my computer. -
nogaps is even better than the ukmo, been very consistent lately.... I wonder whether its been upgraded to the navgem already in all but name. Usually all over the show from run to run.
GFS is in real danger of getting trumped by the NOGAPS. If that happens then it will be well and truly embarrassing for the GFS.
As far as i know it hasn't been upgraded yet, but someone with more knowledge than me might be able to confirm this.
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It's funny to see the GFS gradually drop more and more energy SE run by run. It hasn't reached the tipping point yet to allow something like the UKMO to come off but by the 18z or 0z it should be there. It's funny because once it tips, its whole output post 120-144 will have to alter in accordance too.
Yes, quite right.
i think i remember steve saying yesterday that the GFS will fall into line within 24-36hrs (or something like that)! Looks like he may be proven right.?
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The GFS seems to have a genuine issue handling energy distribution around any pressure rise to the E and NE. No idea why but as Steve has said it doesn't seem to be able to split energy successfully and more often than not sends it all over the top.
Absolutely. I've only been model watching for approx 2 years and have already noticed that myself.
As for the rest of the GFS run, not much point in looking past 144h at the moment if it cant get anything right pre 144h!
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At long last it looks like the GFS has started to come on board with the UKMO and the ECM, and after days of being in what can only be described as some sort of a coma its finally beginning to wake up and smell the coffee.
As others have said many times before on here... its a joke of a model! GFS - YOU FAIL!!
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Obviously my theory of putting this consistency thing to bed has imploded! lol!
Night all.
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That’s very good consistency at that range, but the 13 in a row that the GFS produced in December were at an equal range I was absolutely certain that the GFS had it nailed because of the consistency, yet it still fell over, personally I won’t make that mistake again, even if this consistent run from the ECM comes off. Now i'm off to bed and its snowing here.
Well, one of these models has got it very very wrong! But which one??
There's 1 thing for sure.... We haven't got long till we find out.
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Ok, let's put this consistency thing to bed!
Here is today's 4 GFS runs for 12th Feb....
Today's GFS 0Z... and remember, all these are for 12th Feb!
Today's GFS 6Z
Today's GFS 12Z
Today's GFS 18Z
As you can clearly see... Absolutely NO consistency from the GFS what so ever!! Easterlies / northerlies /south westerlies... Just about everything u could think of really!
Ok, now lets look at the ECM last 4 runs for 12th Feb...
Yesterdays ECM 0Z
Yesterdays ECM 12Z
Todays ECM 0Z
Todays ECM 12Z
As you can clearly see... much more of a consistency from the ECM with more or less an easterly flow on all 4 runs!
Hopefully that has put to bed any doubts about consistency!
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The GFS has shown lots of consistency. It refuses to go with the ECM solution & brings us back into a more westerly regime. It also seems to have broad support from the METO models. Just because it's not showing what people want it's rubbished, as is any model that dares not show cold & snow.
I think if you go and take a look at all 4 GFS runs today consistency is certainly a word i wouldn't use!
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Well the GFS ensembles are a complete and utter MESS. I think this model is fast becoming a laughing stock to be honest, I'm not sure what it is but its performing so poorly at the moment, and I don't know about everyone else but I'm actually starting to wonder whether to even look at it and use it in the Top Model bracket, if its cyclonic westerlies as a model it seems fine but once it gets other complexities and different types of synoptics it just goes to pot, completely. Sorry just needed that rant.
Anyway, at least we have the UKMO and the ECM, two models that still have my respect, on board for it sliding in one way or another, I'm pretty sure it will slide, just depends exactly how.
Couldn't agree more! The GFS has shown no consistency what so ever over the last few days, where as the UKMO and the ECM have been pretty rock solid in their outputs. If anyone is siding with the GFS, (a model that's all over the place at present) over 2 very highly rated models in the UKMO and ECM who both are being very consistent, then they are either very brave, or very foolish!?
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I think there would be some major snowfall if the CMA verified. Although uppers are marginal at times!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?&ech=24&mode=0&carte=0
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Indeed good to see, I'm not suggesting that the GFS is going to be right, only that being bullish about the ECM being on the money is not always wise, best verifying model or not it backs down to the GFS on a regular basis.
And i'm pretty sure that the GFS backs down to the ECM on a regular basis too. It's all swings and roundabouts really. Am pleased that the GEM has come on board though. It's not everyone's favourite model but it did do rather well in last months cold spell of weather (that's not to say it will get this one correct though).
Anyway, D-day is fast approaching, so we'll all find out in the next day or 2 which of the models are correct and which one's have got this very wrong.
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Meanwhile the NOGAPS and the GEM both on board and back the ECM / UKMO!
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ecm will drop the solution tonight i feel
gfs and ukmo want ger there .there is to much energy in the jet
Do you still have the same feeling now??
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I think there's a problem with this type of analysis.... if we think the projection from six days ago was pretty accurate, wouldn't it make sense to carry it on and see how the situation evolved in the next four days then, and how it evolves now?
How it evolved then....
How it evolves now..
So could an argument be made that the ECM is showing a greater susceptibility to the incursion of the Atlantic to our north west then it was a few days ago? Is this a trend that will continue?
Maybe so.
That day 10 chart from the ECMWF on the 28th jan is certainly not the worst day 10 chart ive ever seen in regards to what is forecast now to happen for the same date.
Out of interest what was the GFS showing on the 28th for day 10 ??
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With so much talk about the ECM vs GFS let's see what the other models are thinking at 192hrs..
JMA has pv sliping eastwards to our north with a west / north west flow and average temps http://www.meteociel...modeles/jma.php
BOM looks good with a north Scandinavia high, low to our south and an Atlantic ridge = cold easterly flow ala ECM http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0
GEM similar to JMA but worse with a west / south west flow http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0
CMA again similar but more of a NW flow perhaps setting up a cold zonal type spell. A I right in thinking this new model did well on the last cold spell? http://www.meteociel...ode=0&archive=0
CPTEC again a cool zonal NW flow with wintry showers in the NW http://www.meteociel...ode=0&archive=0
I didn't do this to prove anything just looked at each model, wrote what I saw and posted a link. What I have learnt though is the ECM has very little support still and only the BOM is backing it, and I believe it uses the same data as ECM (or is it UKMO?)
Fair play to RJS for nailing his balls to the mast re a record breaking cold feb but I'm struggling to see anything remarkable. Forecasts such as these from RJS and recent similar forecasts from PIers Corbyn should be remembered and judged accordingly in a few weeks.
FWIW ... the NOGAPS is backing the ECM too!
EDIT... Sorry, NOGAPS doesn't go up to 192h... but if it did it would support ECM
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How does a computer model 'climb down'?
With the help of ladders!?
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Well, around day 6 seems to be make or break right now for this upcoming cold period of weather.
So, with this in mind, i just thought i would take a look at the ECMWF and the GFS to see how both models have been performing lately and what they were predicting 6 days ago for today, and compare the two charts to today's output!
First we have the ECMWF chart for 6 days ago, and it's predictions for today....
Now here is the ECMWF actual chart for today...
I think you would agree that this was not a bad effort at all by the ECMWF!!
Ok, so now on to the GFS, and it's predictions 6 days ago for today...
Now here is the GFS actual chart for today...
I think you would agree that although this wasn't a bad effort from the GFS, (remembering that 6 days in weather is a very long time), it really wasn't on the same level as the ECMWF!
Ok, so what can we learn from this?
Not a lot in all honesty as we all know that models can sometimes be closer to the mark on day 6 at points throughout the year, and then just a few days later it's 6 day predictions look terrible compared to what the models show at 0h! But as you can clearly see at present the ECMWF is performing slightly better.
Let's just hope that today's ECMWF chart for day 6 is closer to the mark than the GFS's once again.
Todays' ECMWF chart for day 6...
Today's GFS chart for day 6...
So, FWIW, my thoughts are that the ECMWF has got this pattern nailed! Don't get me wrong, i'm not saying that this up and coming cold spell of weather will break all records.... i.e it's going to be snowmageddon for everyone, blizzards etc etc, but i do believe that the atlantic will struggle to break any block down once it is established! I could indeed be wrong (it wouldn't be the first time, and probably won't be the last) but that is how i see things at present.
SE BLIZZARDS
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I suppose we need all models on board but not really the Gfs, it's been as much use as the no gaps this winter.
Yes, actually you are right. Gfs has performed woefully at times this winter (has have many of the other models), so as you say, probably best it doesn't jump on board!
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Come on, admit it... we've all had a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and probably 5th look at that ECM 12z run!!
What we need now is the GFS to come on board then things could get very interesting.
Roll on the pub run!
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Check out the uppers throughout the whole of the latest CFS run! ...Shame it all goes pear shaped around 960h!
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LOL at the PV... Just LOL!!
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And the reward for best run of the day goes to....... the CMA!
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Anyone have any ideas if essex will get any snow on monday??
Maybe the same gremlins that seem to be in the GFS model have made their way onto my computer. 
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thanks