SE Blizzards
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An Artic high, is just that, a high pressure cell that forms over the Arctic regions. It is a rare beast in winter, as usually you would have the Polar Vortex (Low pressure) in that area. It will by it's nature, allow the cold air from the Arctic to spill out clockwise around it as it ridges and interacts with other features.
The famous cold spell of 1987 is probably the best example of an Arctic high delivering extreme cold to the UK,
Although our current projected set up certainly is evolving around an Arctic high, the 850s are not as cold as that famous event.
As for 850s, well, anything from 0/-1c or below, but there is a whole host of other factors to consider, one is how dry the air is, a dry airmass with low dewpoints needs less cold 850s to produce snow. But to be honest you could write a 50 page essay on the in's and outs of conditions for snowfall!!
Thank you so much for taking the time out to explain this all to me. It was very helpful.
I will remember in future to ask questions in the learning thread.
Thanks once again.
SE Blizzards
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Your 1st question depends but usually its between -6c to -8c minimum, your second question is where there is high pressure in the artic region (coloured as green to yellow), but please try and keep these questions in the learning thread.
Thanks
No worries, it has now been explained to me.
Thank you
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I'm a newbie and i'm certainly no expert, but to my untrained eye i have to say that these charts are looking exceptional for the latter part of November!
Just 2 quick Q's for the more experience members.... How cold do the uppers have to be before precipitation turns to snow? And also can someone explain the importance of the 'arctic high' for me as i'm not too familiar with this.
Sorry for the Q's, i'm just trying to learn as i go along.
SE Blizzards
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I won't spoil it but check out BOM
Massive 'eye candy'!
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Well, another day passes of model watching and i for one can say that overall i'm very happy with the way things are shaping up for the start of winter! A couple of things come to mind... PV in pieces and....... BLOCKING!!! Hopefully tomorrow will bring more of the same.
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Hi everyone
I am new to all of this. This is my 1st post, so go easy on me.
Firstly i would like to say that i have been viewing this thread for a while now and i find some posts very educational and very enjoyable. I'm only a beginner but learning all the time.
What i don't understand though is some of the negativity on here at the moment. I believe some peoples expectations of cold and snowy weather are far too high at times.
Having a December like the one we had 2 years ago was very very special, but that was a '1 in a 100 year' event, we have to remember that we live in the UK and we would be extremely lucky to see it happen again in our lifetime let alone 2 years after it happened! Maybe because of Dec 2010 that's the reason why the expectations are so high?? I for one absolutely love cold/snowy weather but sometime patience is required, and i guess that's what is going to be required with the upcoming cool/cold spell!
Yes, we all got very excited with yesterdays 'eye candy', but are today's charts really that bad???
You are either 'the glass is half empty' or 'the glass is half full' kind of person and luckily i am the latter of the 2.
Some of today's charts are still ok viewing and the GFS 12z run to me is ok too! Ok, i agree that today's charts are 'not the perfect scenario' but if you cast your mind back 12 months the charts were that bad i found myself hiding behind the sofa in despair and if i could choose between last years charts and this years one's i know which one's i would choose!
So my advice (for what it's worth) is to keep calm! There is lots to play for and lots to look forward too, after all we are still only in November and there are 3 whole months of winter ahead of us. I'm sure there are many twists and turns over the next few days regarding model/chart watching, so let's just have some fun and enjoy the ride of winter 2012/13!
SE Blizzards
Model Output Discussion 23/11/2012 18Z onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
So much negativity on here again today! Tut Tut!
I think some people need to go and have a look at the archive charts for the same time as this last year and maybe that will put things into perspective!