SE Blizzards
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Posts posted by SE Blizzards
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GFS 18Z - mild outlier day 7 through to day 10.
Make of that what you will.
Goodnight.
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Think we all know why? ECM tends to over amplify patterns, GFS seems better at handling the Atlantic, and westerlies are what to expect in Dec!
think we will see ECM trending towards GFS tomorrow, and also ECM ENS just been posted in model thread, and seem to match GEFS
But it's not just the ECM that is amplifying the pattern, is it? Or am i reading the charts wrong?
You didn't answer the question...
Are all the other models wrong then in showing signs of amplification in the Atlantic? I presume with what you said you think they are?
The truth is NO-ONE knows for sure what will happen later next week. Models are fickle things when it comes to predicting T144 and beyond! At the end of the day the weather will do what the weather will do.
And to say Westerlies are to be expected in Dec is daft in my opinion. I won't argue that they are 'more likely', but there has been many times in the past when westerlies have not dominated in December. Just look what happened in 2010! The weather has a habit of 'not sticking to the rules'.
Sometimes i really do wish i had a crystal ball, just like other folk seem to have.
Edit: Also it looks like NCEP have dumped today's GFS according to Nick S on the MOD thread. Hmm, interesting...
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Don't trust ECM FI! 850's bit pants anyway, GFS is more likely correct here with milder, flatter westerly pattern
Hi IRA.
So are you saying the ECM 12Z, along with the Navgem 12Z, GEM 12Z and UKMO 12Z (which all show some sort amplification in the Atlantic later next week) are all wrong?
And why do you favour the GFS's more flatter westerly pattern?
Some thought's on why you think this way would be beneficial, especially for newbies.
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I think it is well known around here that i don't care too much for LRF's / Seasonal Forecast's. However, a lot of hard work, time and effort has obviously been put into this Winter forecast, so credit where credit is due.
Let's hope you're proven right and we all see some snow at some point this Winter. We snow starved fans certainly deserve it.
Best of luck to you.
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Even longer term, and the winter as a whole, this isn't great with the Met Office thinking that a milder and wetter winter is more likely than a colder and drier winter. But if you read it all, they do make clear that this doesn't discount a cold winter. Just a bit disappointing that they see it this way. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/untangling-the-global-drivers-of-uk-winter-weather/
Is that the same Met Office that were going for a drier than average Winter this time last year, with HP being the dominant force?
I really wouldn't take much notice of LR seasonal forecasts.
Today's updated AO forecast see's a lot of scatter, but with a couple of members going as low as -4.
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How long can this incredible run of Mild months go on for? I haven't seen a single frost since April 2013!!
Right, i've had enough. It's time for a bit of reverse psychology..
I've just told the whole family that there is absolutely categorically no sign of any cold weather on the horizon for the UK for at least the next couple of weeks, maybe even 3!
Let's hope that backfires on me and leaves egg splattered across my face, just like when i've told them many many many times in the past that a big freeze is on the way - and then the exact opposite happens.
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30% risk of much colder in the next 2-4 weeks is the gist of what he said, or so it seemed to me. Be interesting what he thinks in say 10 days. Some solid signal/comparisons but one or two others looked a bit dodgy to me.
Yes John, quite a few similarities between 2009/10 and this year, but as we all know no two Winters are ever the same. Interesting nonetheless.
And i would suggest a 30% risk of much colder weather in the next 2-4 weeks is about 29% higher than where we were this time last year.
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Simon Keeling has gone into some sort of cold ramp mode (something he rarely does) in his latest video today.
A must view for all cold weather fans.
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what time does the ECM roll out?
Model Output update times can be found here....
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/
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My dad who has many years experience of model watching just peered over my shoulder and took one look at the NH pattern that's developing on my laptop screen (GFS 18Z P), shook his head and said.... '' Son, It's gonna be a bad one''!
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ECM 12z mean day 10 chart. 2014
ECM 12z mean day 10 chart. 2013
Just look at the difference of the NH. Staggering.
The PV really is struggling this year, there's no doubt about that what so ever.
All cold fans deserve a cold and snowy winter after last years mild wet washout, and right now 'we' seem to be heading in the right direction. Patience is required, but maybe 'something special' is brewing.
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Yup, always enjoy FW's most useful insight stroke reality check posts
Quick question as an aside, when did the constant train of LP systems begin last Autumn/Winter? Before many of us lost count of them all...
I think it was sometime in October?
You can view that sort of stuff here...
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=10&day=16&year=2013&map=4
Edit: Oops, link won't show charts past October 31st 2013
But as you can see, LP systems started to attack the UK during October-
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Well, his post was most likely to try and settle the silly season posts a bit. As he eluded to (and agreed with Gibby) rainfall could be a problem within the foreseeable. I don't think he came on to specifically cut the cold ribbons just yet, as it is only November.
I guess he wasn't cutting the cold ribbons as such, but always nice to see him posting again (a sure sign Winter is near) as he very rarely posts during any other season.
Anyway, as i said, great to see him back
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Ian F makes his first post for months in the MOD thread, the same day the 12z's start showing some 'interest'!
A coincidence? .... I think not.
Winter is coming!
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I raise you that end of GFS FI chart with a GEM day 10 day chart
Just for fun though to be honest. Nice to see a few of the 12z operationals giving the pole a good kicking.
I raise you that GEM chart with this beauty from the control run.
Cold pool heading straight to the UK
Control run can be viewed here...
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=1
Good example of Scandinavian HP being tugged over to Greenland.
Now just need a nice ECM 12Z to wet the appetite further...
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Am I missing something??
Forget the Temps, ...just look at the NH pattern that's developing.
I would imagine a Stonking -AO if the GEM 12Z verified.
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Todays GEM 12Z
Day 10 chart..
Greenland - 1065MB
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Fantastic summary as always Steve
Much more optimism this year going forwards as opposed to last years horror show.
Lets hope Winter 2014/15 delivers the goods for all.
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6z update.... -2.38
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I find it hard to believe that people still take Long Range Models seriously? How many of those Models predicted last Winter's monsoon for the UK correctly? Ermmm... None! Any member of NetWeather could put a Winter seasonal forecast together and have as much chance as getting it right as one of those models.
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6z just updated... -2.80
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Anyone know how the Siberian snow cover is developing? And how does it compare to last year?
Click on link below - Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover. There you can compare years etc.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=10&fd=16&fy=2013&sm=10&sd=14&sy=2014
Siberian snow cover developing very nicely by the look of things.
Great to see the OPI still in negative territory. Some great posts in here guys. Keep up the good work
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Fantastic post Tam
Informative and educational as ever.
Thank you for taking the time out to explain all.
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But as you can see, LP systems started to attack the UK during October
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards
Well, let's hope the ECM 0Z is more realistic....
You Certainly won't get any complaints from me if that chart verified.
I know you have a love affair with the GFS, but may i ask why? It is often down in 3rd place in the verification stats. Actually, come to think of it, i'm trying to remember the last time i seen the GFS in 1st place? It may of happened recently (or has it), but it definitely doesn't happen often that's for sure.
By the way, have you heard that the GFS op is getting binned soon? ...I wonder why?