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SE Blizzards

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Posts posted by SE Blizzards

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    TBH if February does deliver the goods for snow and cold people will soon forget the average Dec and January. Love this place when snow starts falling and we have a cold spell.I wasn't on this forum when Dec 2010 occurred and would love Feb 2015 to be like that. Had a look at Mod thread and a very balanced post by Tamara. Things do look a bit more promising for maybe late this month and early Feb but there were signs a bit like this for late Dec/early Jan and it went pear shaped. Lets all pray for things to come together for the whole of UK this time :good:

     

    Totally agree.

     

    I wasn't around in December 2010 either   :( Bet this place was going crazy!!

    This forum is a fantastic place to be when a cold spell is imminent, - the excitement/buzz etc etc, you just can't beat it in my opinion!

     

     

    And Yes, Tamara's posts are always great to read. She's without doubt one of NetWeathers finest!

    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    That is the pattern this Winter, 2 weeks of cold, 4 weeks of torch and repeat. Also the PV will re-organize which will once again trap the coldest air back at the pole in the 10-14 day period. This could release again in February, or if it doesn't it could add for a cold air bank during severe weather season allowing for more potent/frequent storm/storm systems.

    Looks like Scandinavia/Russia and perhaps the UK/Northern Europe will be the big winners this Winter, US will continue to be short changed, especially the eastern half of the lower 48.    

    To SE Blizzards-I am not good on computers but after about 1.5 hours I found the quote from one of the posters from yesterday and just copied it for you just to give you a flavour of the discussions that took place.Today I believe a large part of NE USA has had anything from 1-6 inchs of snow and will have a good 4-5 very cold days with Lake Effect snow cranking up in next few days.Feel real sorry for them lol!! 

     

    Ta very much for that Hotspur  :good:

     

    Let's hope then that the PV does shift over to Siberia for the second half of Winter.

    Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    For what its worth (caveats galore), the GEFS look a little bit more amplified at day 10 compared to the ECM ensembles.

     

    gensbc-21-1-240.png

    EDM1-240.GIF?06-0

     

    Maybe the GFS/GEFS over-doing any mid-Atlantic amplification?

     

    I remember a few weeks ago it was the ECM ENS that showed huge amplification in the Atlantic, and the GEFS were having none of it. That time the GEFS turned out to be correct. It'll be sods law though if the ECM ENS have this one nailed....

    • Like 3

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Makes you laugh sometimes.I have had a look at Accuweather Forum for USA/Canada in last couple days and there are some having a real moan about lack of snow compared to last year. Some are worried about PV moving across to Siberia from late Jan onwards and that NW Europe could be in for a real cold spell and that their winter could be over lol!!Hope they are right on second point but they should come to the UK if they want a snow drought . Perspective LOL

     

    I have to say, even though i despise that highlighted phrase, it does have a certain ring about it!! :wink:

     

    Let's hope i've not started a new craze here and the 'mildies' end up throwing that phrase at 'coldies' each time a FI cold spell/snap doesn't materialise  :wink: ...I'm sure 'they're' not that cruel!

     

    Do you have a link for the Accuweather forums?

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I appreciate many younger members would have no experience of many of those and maybe more recent Winters have raised expectations.

     

     

    Couldn't agree more Phil. I think December 2010 (a 1 in 100 year event) raised expectations to a whole new level, and because we've not seen anything like it since it has left many younger folk scratching their heads wondering why we are not blanketed in snow each Winter. 

     

    Like you and many others have said, it is rather normal to sometimes have a snow free winter (or a Winter with very little snow), but that does not stop people from getting 'a little' frustrated at times, and to a certain extent i do share some of that frustration. I guess people are just very passionate towards snow, and get a little down when Winter passes by without any!?

     

    Anyway, there's still plenty of time for things to change, so let's hope things start improving soon.

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Not sure I agree with this. 2011/12 was not too bad with 2 decent snow events here near London in Jan. Last year was horrid but it was an extreme, unlikely to be repeated for many years. This winter has been nothing like last year. I haven't seen snow yet, true, but I've had most other wintry types of weather so far.

    2 years (well, less than that as we're only a third of the way through this winter) without snow is hardly a 'massive snow drought'. Quite normal to be honest. I remember the great winters of the late 70s and 80s and the poor ones to follow. I didn't see snow in my location every year, that's for sure. And in the 'bad old days' we at least had some fantastic summers, which from my point of view beats snowy winters hands down.

    As others have said, some folks need to appraise their expectations somewhat and be a bit more realistic about where we actually live. It WILL snow again here, be it in 3 weeks or 3 years time. It won't be predictable in the long term so you may as well relax and try to enjoy whatever the weather throws at us. Or pop onto a cheap flight somewhere cold. Like New York, where I'm currently staying for work. It's -7 at 13.24 and it's been snowing for a few hours. Nice lol.....

     

    Well, we'll have to agree to disagree because for the majority of folk 2011/12 was a poor year with regards to snowfall.

     

    To be honest you can keep your hot summers because i for one cannot tolerate heat as i'm allergic to it!  :wink:

     

    And as i said before, 'my' expectations are usually quite low in Winter. But even here in 'balmy' Essex i would expect to see 'some' of the white stuff at least ONCE a year! I do agree however that 'some' people expect too much at times throughout the Winter months.

     

    Enjoy your stay in cold/snowy New York, and if you get time send some of it over here!  :good:

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Not really. I've only lived in the UK for 8.5 years and in that time I would say I've only had 3 snowy winters where I've lived (Prestatyn, North Wales) and only 1 of those was 2012/2013 where we were lucky and it was severe but only stuck around for a little while the couple of times it snowed.

     

    I think people need to align their expectations with what is normal in the UK and winters like 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 are very much NOT the norm.

     

    I looooove the snow and watch the charts as much as the next person, but if you go into every winter hoping for a severe winter and half expecting it then you're going to be disappointed 9/10 times.

     

    I'm sorry, But i have never been one who expects too much during Winter, and my expectations are always pretty low as i know just how difficult it is to get snowy weather here.

     

    BUT, even by UK standards Winter 2011/12, 2013/14, and this Winter so far have been really quite poor. Even in the Winters of the 'bad old days' lowland Britain used to see at least 'some' snowfall. At present some places in the UK are on a massive snow drought, and to be honest this doesn't look like changing any time soon.

    Winter 2014-15 thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I do wish sites such as the weather outlook and this one would abandon the seasonal winter forecast. They've been so badly out in recent years they're next to useless.

    Pure guessing and in many cases fantasy.

    Here's a prediction from me. I reckon next winter will turn out the same as this winter and the last one.

     

    You say next Winter will turn out the same as this Winter and the last one!? Well...surely that's pure guessing and in your case fantasy  :rofl:

    Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    New thread for the new year (well eventually) :p

    Not much in the way of interest weather wise over the coming days with the winds mainly from the west and any storminess currently modelled to stay well north of us.

    Enjoy and post away :)

    Lets hope for scenes like this in the future

    _65320520_robpowell.jpg

     

    Hmmm.... I was wondering who stole my old avatar pic from last Winter! Now i know!  :p

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I would say that I would be very surprised if we didn't get e decent northerly or even a Scandi block sometime before March, I would certainly think that we have been very unlucky if we saw out the rest of winter in a mundane zonal westerly phase.

    But I am certainly tempted to put January 2015 in the trash bin unless something drastically changes over the next few days.

     

    I hope you are right CS, i really do.

     

    I'm just finding it rather difficult to understand what has gone so wrong? There was so many factors going in our favour this time around, OPI, Weak El Nino, Easterly QBO, Weaker Vortex, Strat Warmings etc etc, but still our luck has been utterly pants.

     

    I think that this Winter thus far really does show (no matter how many good signals pre-Winter there are) just how hard it is to get real prolonged cold to the UK.

     

    And i agree, January unfortunately does looks like heading straight to the shredder (along with many months prior to it)!!

    • Like 2

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Feeling it too, especially as the forecast pattern change could very well be towards a brief re-run of last winter with potential for widespread damaging winds and rain. Hopefully it won't last too long or better yet not verify. Either way given the good agreement on a westerly pattern until mid-month, the CET looks potentially to reach a irreparable point where another milder than average month is likely.

     

    It's terrible CS, it really is. I don't want to start believing that this 'Winter is over' as it's only Jan 6th, but it's hard not to think that way especially as the UK seems as if it has a massive protective shield against cold weather at the mo, and there is absolutely nothing in the charts that remotely suggest that this shield will in any way be broken any time soon.

     

    I just hope we are not slipping back into the 'bad old days' of the late 90's/early 2000's!

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion; into 2015

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    I can't see any major pattern change from what we have now up to 19th January.

    GEFS ensembles mainly showing a westerly influence.

    Anyone thinking SSW will change things is more likely straw clutching at this stage, as same SSW fanatics were disappointed last winter.

     

    gens-2-1-348.png

     

    I'm sorry but this is very misleading to newer members.

     

    The GEFS for the same time frame of that chart you show are NOT showing a mainly westerly influence. In fact i can only count about 6 or 7 that have!

     

    Tut tut!

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=348&size=

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion; into 2015

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    GEFS perturbation 3 is the best...

     

    gensnh-3-1-312.pnggensnh-3-1-324.pnggensnh-3-1-336.pnggensnh-3-1-348.pnggensnh-3-1-360.png

     

    It's good, but it's not quite Carling! (unlike the latest CFS run below that has us locked in the freezer from mid February until April!?

     

    A re-run of 2013 Anyone?

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1044&mode=0&carte=1&run=3

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1044&mode=2&carte=1&run=3

     

    All just for fun of course  :D  :D  :D

    • Like 8
    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion; into 2015

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

     

     

    The GFS(p) has been on a new years eve bender all day because it's showing snow every day at least somewhere in the UK from Day 8 right through to Day 16.

     

     

    gfs-2-252.png?18

    and finishes with a nice Northerly and amplification in the Atlantic.

     

     

    gfsnh-0-384.png?18

     

    Happy new year to all NetWeather members. This really is the best weather forum in the world.

     

    Let's hope our (coldies) luck changes for the better in 2015.

    • Like 16

    Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards

    Much as there is an overall improvement at 192 on the GFS (Op, P and Control) there is not much support in the ensemble.

    OP

    attachicon.gifgfs-0-192.png

     

    P

    attachicon.gifgfs-0-192 (1).png

     

    Control

    attachicon.gifgens-0-1-192.png

     

    Ensemble mean

    attachicon.gifgens-21-1-192.png

     

    and spread - op and control outliers

     

    attachicon.gifgraphe3_1000_288_104___.gif

     

    Ah yeah, that maybe so, but we all seen what happened recently when the ECM op was going for the milder option and most of it's members we're going for the colder one. Some of the ECM members are now jumping ship and are starting to follow it to the milder camp.

     

    Could it be that the GFS op/ GFS(p) have called this one right, then after a while the GFS Ens will end up following them!?

     

    Remember, the main runs are run at a higher res than the Ens... (i think)

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