SE Blizzards
-
Posts
1,108 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by SE Blizzards
-
-
Started off as rain here, but now turning to heavy snow. Huge flakes!
-
Good support for GFS 06Z OP on GFS 06Z ensembles for it turning anticyclonic week 2.
Yes, quite a few members in FI showing HP close too, or around the UK, a regular occurrence as of late. Higher upper temps for sure, but cold at the surface.
P15 my favourite
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=15&ech=372&mode=0&carte=0
-
2
-
-
Spot on, this has been evident since early this week. Each day, the cold spell has continued to lengthen and the longer it can do so the better chance of something even more severe cropping up. It's been a superb week of model watching!
Yep, and even some of those recent ENS members that have been showing 'milder' 850 temps have mostly been down to HP sat over the top of us - which would undoubtedly mean it would be cold at the surface. Same applies to the 18Z Ens too by the looks of things.
The outlook looks like a cold one to me, with not much sign of any change for at least the next week, maybe two.
Edit: Pert 4 has lost the plot!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=348&mode=0&carte=0
-
4
-
-
- Popular Post
great 18z ensembles
Yes, some very nice ENS members tonight. Probably the coldest set of the Winter so far out to Day 8.
And it's not often you see a Day 8 mean PPN chart like this either..
I have a feeling this cold spell could last a lot longer than some people think.
-
18
-
fair play
but as i mentioned its not strictly an outlier as it has support on its evolution upto t240. both the gfs 00z, 06z and 12z plus the ecm 00z and 12z agree as to the evolution upto t240, the mild chart i posted .
ok theres loads of time for this to change, its far from nailed, but its what the current outputs suggest.
Hmm, charts at t240 are all thwart with danger whether they show cold, mild or whatever, and i'm sure you of all people know that. In fact i'm struggling to remember when the last time an op chart at T240 actually verified?
Cold can be a bugger to shift once it's in and i suspect some of the op runs are being a tad progressive in shifting the cold. But of course that is only my opinion, and time will as ever tell
-
1
-
-
dont know why this happened but my reply should be here
A wild outlier? When the ecm 00z and 12z plus the previous gfs supported it And the noaa 8-14 anomaly chart supports it?
It might well not become reality, i am aware of that, but a wild outlier it is not.
Sorry mushy, i should of made myself clearer. I meant it is a wild outlier compared to most of it's own 12Z suite (GEFS)
-
starting to firm up
Interesting to note that the chart you posted of the GFS 12Z Op at Day 10 was a wild mild outlier. It only had support from the control. Most of the other GEFS members were significantly colder, with the mean not rising above -4 until the 13th Feb. That's 2 long weeks away.
So i wouldn't be getting too excited just yet over the prospects of a return to milder conditions at Day 10 as clearly there is nowhere near enough evidence (as of yet) for this to happen.
-
2
-
-
Interesting that for London and the SE at least, the coldest period looks to start from Monday, with day maxima and night minima lower than before early next week. This reflects the sustained northerly flow veering northeasterly toward mid-week. Average along with EC and GFS ops show slight rise in temps next weekend - though big scatter by then. Certainly don't buy the 18z progressive return to more mobile Atlantic regime by then.
Couldn't agree more Nick. GFS 18Z op seems to be way too progressive.
Can't quite believe how good the 18Z Ens are. Some staggering members amongst them.
-
4
-
-
ECM 12Z ENS for London.
One or two people were saying this could be a 2 or 3 Day toppler. Well, going by those ENS this cold spell seems to be locked in for at least another 10 Days, or possibly longer.
-
7
-
-
Well, after 22 long months i can finally say my Essex snow drought is officially over!
It's snowing, and it's snowing hard!
-
1
-
-
Hi Steve.
How do you see that UKMO Day 6 chart going forward? i.e - longevity of cold?
Also worth noting that this afternoon's GEFS seem to be sniffing out a possible Easterly later next week. Your thoughts?
Cheers.
-
GEFS out to DAY 7 and quite a few decent Easterlies now starting to appear
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=162
-
3
-
-
Just spoke to my niece who's in Kingsthorpe , 3 miles from Northampton town Centre) and she says it's pouring of snow there, and in the space of 5 mins everything has turned white...
-
1
-
-
Plus Nick the control looks cold again!
S
Control stays cold all the way to the end.
-
9
-
-
Nope, not seen any snow here in Essex since April 2013, so the snow drought continues here, but i did get to see half hours worth of heavy snow (which eventually turned to rain) in Northampton on Boxing day.
I do feel though even with the lack of snow it has been far better than last Winters endless gales/rain/flooding etc.
-
Another trend run. High pressure builds over the UK around day 9 or 10 and sticks around fairly strongly.
Yeah, but i would suggest for most of FI on the 18z it would be a rather cold HP. (especially at the surface where -10 wouldn't be out of the question over some of the snowfields from Day 9 onwards. A very similar story on the ECM 12Z.
-
2
-
-
Hope mod's will allow me this one...
Fergie just tweeted..
How long will cold conditions stay once here? Latest UKMO diagnostics hint at less cold, more W'ly-influenced weather by end of next week. This change - as is often the case - may prove rather 'messy' (perhaps yielding a risk of further snow in *some* parts of UK)...
Cont'd...but until then, we have high confidence on cold weather frm Weds PM thro rest of this week; & also possible for a few days nxt week
-
5
-
-
3.1cOh what the heck, let's go for 1.5c.
That's the last time i'm gonna change my mind... honest.
-
Kind of but kind of not. My point all along has been that this risks being a 2-3 day wonder. The pressure out west from a powerful, non amplified and non bifurcated jet suggests to me from past experience considerable likelihood that the whole event will be shunted east nearer the time and we may then have a toppler. That's what the ensemble scatter seems at least to consider possible. Hopefully not and this digs in, and we see some proper upstream blocking in evidence.
Well the 12Z ENS that you posted rather contradicts a 2-3 day wonder as they clearly show at least a week of cold weather!? That surely can't happen from 'a toppler', or can it? If so - that would be one of the longest topplers i've ever seen that's for sure.
Anyway, all will be revealed over the next few days.
Let's hope the 18Z has been on an all-dayer and goes on to show a 1963 freeze.
-
2
-
-
Encouraging 12z runs. Here are a couple of reasons to keep champagne on ice until this goes truly into reliable zone.
6z ensembles:
12z ensembles:The point from those being that toppler territory and return to milder conditions from a transient northerly remain possible options, even probable ones. Let's hope the ensembles tighten up on the colder side to firm things up. Otherwise it continues to be a perilous path here.
Ah, but the most important thing about those ENS is that the Cold signal is in the more reliable 'ish' (High res) time frame, the uncertainty after that is in the unreliable (Low res) time frame. I don't disagree that a toppler is one of the options on the table at present, but something more sustained is most certainly on offer too imo.
-
1
-
-
February is going to be special...
You heard it first here!
4 days on from this post and i've see nothing so far to change my mind on this one.
I'm not forecasting a DEC 2010, but i do expect a fairly Cold Month overall, with plenty of snow opportunities to keep all the snow lovers amongst us happy...
The start of Feb looks like beginning on a special note...
Finer detail like where it will snow etc will become clearer in the days ahead.
Let's hope for many more upgrades and for the cold signal to grow each day.
-
3
-
-
- Popular Post
Cracking set of ECM 12Z London ENS..
Not often you see that much agreement out to Days 9 - 10. Hardly any scatter.
So, starting from approximately Thursday it's looking like a week (at least) of cold weather to come. Finer details (like snow/ice etc) will no doubt be resolved over the next few days.
Not often i stick my neck out, but i do expect to see some upgrades with regards to 850's (especially from the GFS) over the next day or so.
All in all a good day of model watching, and IMO not much to be downhearted about tonight.
-
10
-
Day 8 Mean..
Day 9 Mean..
Day 10 Mean..
-
4
-
-
February is going to be special...
You heard it first here!
-
4
-
Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted
Still snowing quite heavily here but struggling to settle though as ground is quite wet.