SE Blizzards
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Posts posted by SE Blizzards
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Shannon entropy at its finest first two ensemble members.
There is even a couple of members trying for an Easterly at the same sort of time frame.
I thought i was confused watching the drama unfold yesterday, but that's nothing compared to how confused i am now.
Does anyone have the foggiest on how this is all going to pan out, because i don't have a clue!?
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I see, apologies , some might not see that as you posted relevant charts
Sorry SE
No probs Banbury
Naughty of me really, as some newbies may of taken the 'white-out/blowtorch comments seriously, so apologies for that.
I was just highlighting/emphasising just how differently the models see things at present. It really is crazy that models can disagree at such lengths at just Days 5/6!
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I doubt the whiteout conditions to be honest , might be sleety at best for MBY
Both 'white out conditions' and 'blowtorch' comments were made tongue in cheek...
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GFS (P) has near on white out conditions next Saturday...
ECM has us in a blowtorch next Saturday...
I don't know which one of these models is correct, but one of them is going to have shed loads of egg on it's face next weekend! Maybe both?
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Sorry mods, just something to lighten the mood, but I think it sums things up at the moment, plus it includes a chart!!
And viewing the 18Z's out to 132, people are going to be more confused than ever because both runs look completely different to me.
This is getting beyond a joke now!
:w00t:
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In all honesty, this is a pretty poor chart.
There was so much potential a few days ago, that it seems has gone. Polar vortex appears to be wanting to move back over Greenland In the longer term amongst the ensembles & the ops, and with pressure high to the south that spells trouble during winter.
Edit: perhaps poor is not the correct word, but considering what was offered a few days ago, it is
Completely disagree.
I think you have made the cardinal sin and commented on a run wayyyy to early.
This chart screams potential if you ask me....
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ECM Day 8 mean...
GFS Day 8 mean...
It's been quite a while since i've seen such a difference at Day 8.
I am totally and utterly confused
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Anyone for Round 2 ??
What a crazy day of model watching....
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ECM 12z shows a freeze in 10 days time, GFS 18Z op shows some sort of a bartlett ??????????????
Anyone who thinks they know what's going to happen in 10 days time is kidding themselves imo.
But surely a bartlett is the outsider of the two, right?
And then from that bartlett at Day 10, we get this chart at Day 16...
That can only happen in the strange world of the GFS in FI!!
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THE MIGHTY NAVGEM!!!
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And there was me about to say to my eyes the 12z runs look better compared to the 00z runs but hey i guess am wrong!!
The 12Z's are better, it's just some people rubbish'd them far too early imo
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ECM mean looks more like the GFS/GFS P at day 8. Expect a backtrack from the ECM in the morning.
That's a pretty brave call there Barry, but i must say i'm kinda with you on that one.
However, 'IF' the ECM continues on it's scrooge ways on both it's runs tomorrow i really will have to start thinking it's called this one correctly.
More fun and games to come tomorrow no doubt.
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Ta very much STV
18Z Ens Day 8 mean...
Pretty decent end, to a very eventful day.
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What on earth is the control run doing from the 27th with those straight lines?
I think the Blue line is the GFS 12Z op run, is it not?
Perhaps someone else can confirm this.
Edit: 18Z Ens look fairly decent at 192.
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192
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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=288
This is easier SEB. Adjust the timescale at the top.
Oh, silly me, of course it is. Thanks BA.
It's getting late, and it's been a long day....
ECM Ens are out for London, and yet again the Op was out of kilter with most of its members at Days 9/10...
The ECM op needs to get into the Christmas spirit pronto!
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Looks like we're not getting a mean for the 18Z Ens at present, so it's a case of clicking on the individual members to see what they're showing.
For newbies, click on Pertubation/Disturbances...1,2,3 etc
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0&carte=1
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ECM op very much on the milder side late on, but with the control following it, should we be a little concerned?
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Also one of the BBC forecasts looking at next week and beyond raised the possibility of snow and strong winds to low levels in the far south.
Dissatisfying for the southern south eastern and south west uk
So although exciting for a lot and certainly not to be unhappy with I'm afraid us in the southern areas could well be waiting a longtime.Lol, no wonder newbies get confused at times.
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Risk of some significant snow in the north next weekend
UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Dec 2014 to Friday 2 Jan 2015:
A band of cloud and rain is likely to be affecting many central parts of the UK at first on Christmas Eve, clearing the southeast later. Colder conditions then spreading to many areas, continuing into Christmas day, with some wintry showers across N areas. Probably becoming increasingly unsettled into the weekend, with the risk of persistent heavy rain, gales and also a risk of significant snow, this more likely across some northern parts. Conditions after Christmas likely to remain predominantly cold across the N, but with the chance of milder interludes across the far south. Otherwise the following week looks perhaps rather cold on the whole, with snow showers likely across many northern areas but milder, wetter interludes possible at times. Generally windy for many throughout.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwyht9w6#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1419120000
Sounds like a possible battleground snow event to me
There was no real wording of snow at all (especially on lower ground) in the METO longer range outlook a couple of weeks ago with regards to the same period as above. It just goes to show how things can (and often do) change. That is why i never get hung up over their longer range forecasts (week 3 to 4)!
Seems to me their 2 week forecast is getting more and more wintry day by day.
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Last night there was a -10 showing up in the ENS for 2M temps in central England.
Now there is a -13.
I wonder if we can go lower than that?
Well, yes we can....
-15! :w00t: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t:
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Any news on the ensembles? Better or worse?
Ens out to day 10 and some of them look absolutely stunning....
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=252&size=
Day 10 mean...
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They will change rapidly due to any effects from happenings in the stratosphere anyway. We're heading into a real dynamic period NWP wise I think.
Agreed CC.
A fascinating period of model watching coming up i feel over the next few days/weeks. Fully anticipating it to be miles better than the crud we constantly had to put up with last 'Winter'... (from a cold perspective, of course)
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To add to this, the CFS extended NAO forecasts agrees with a notable drop next week but it goes back to positive ground in time for January.
I wouldn't worry too much about the extended CFS NAO forecasts Karyo. I'm pretty sure a while ago it didn't spot this upcoming drop we're about to have, so i would have little faith in what it's showing past 2 - 3 weeks.
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Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by SE Blizzards
Oh, don't get me wrong kq, i do expect 'some' differences at Days 5/6, there always is, but the scale of these differences at the moment is something we've not seen for quite some time.