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London ECM ENS. 

 

 

Much colder set than the 0z's, especially for the period 16th - 19th!

 

Not much mild showing up. The cold signal is growing...

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Pub run at t364 I give up

It's been at 364 all winter

 

Ok, see you next Winter! 

 

That chart you've posted just illustrates what the gfs has been trying to do for a few days now in FI and that is transfer the main core of the PV over to the siberian side. A great trend to be constantly seeing in it's output.

 

And it's brother agrees with it...

 

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Well, well, well. What do we have here then?

 

 

Some support for the GEM perhaps?

 

Edit: King Steve beat me to it!

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Short ECM ENS for de bilt.

 

 

Interesting that both the op and the Control are very close to being ice days at Days 9 and 10.

 

And looking at the Extended ENS the Control stays cold pretty much right through to the end (Day 15)

 

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Well, i have to say, the ECM 12Z was a bit of a stinker of a run for Coldies..... In America! 

 

In all honesty though, a very pleasing ECM tonight, and 'maybe' small signs later on in the run of a pattern setting up similar to the one BA was talking about earlier.

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12Z ENS Northern England 2M temps..

 

 

They look pretty darn cold to me, and snow risk - 100% over the next day or two, haven't seen that very often, if at all over the last 2 years or so.

 

Also note the GFS op was very much on the mild side in FI, so i would discard that for now.

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More typical winter weather shown on the latest GFS op and UKMO with wet and windy spells interpersed with temporary ridges and frost potential. Nothing wintry of note showing yet.

 

I'm sorry but that's WRONG, and very misleading to newer members.

 

.

 

 

Lots of Polar Maritime sourced air, and plenty of snow opportunities being shown on the GFS op, especially the further North you are, and all being shown in the more reliable timeframe.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

 

Still no interest of anything potentially cold from the 6z GEFS ensembles or the latest Met Office update!   

 

 

Eh?

 

Day 8 mean looks cold to me

 

 

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Slightly ironic if it's the azores high migrating north that gives us the blocking after how troublesome it's been for cold synoptics this winter thus far.

 

Yes. The Azores High gets plenty of stick, and rightly so in many cases during the Winter months, but as you say, this time it may indeed help us.

Still a long way to go, but things starting to at least look interesting for later this Month.

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I sincerely hope so.

 

GFS central England certainly looking cooler rather than mild.

 

 

Northern England 850's, Coldest set of the Winter so far!

 

 

I think it 'may' be safe to say it's going to get rather chilly. The big question is, how chilly, and for how long!?

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To all Southerners, may your snow dreams come true.

 

 

 

Actually us Northerners wouldn't mind some of that either.

 

Very nice!

 

Ens are looking nice AGAIN!!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=372&size=

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=384

 

I really hope that the GEFS are onto something here. Us coldies have been so patient and surely it's time for our luck to finally change.

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Ecm 12Z ENS for de bilt.

 

 

 Some cold runs showing up there towards the end, and mean temp around a degree or so colder than the 0Z set.

A definite step in the right direction.

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Here you go. Something to cheer the Southern folk up!

 

A nice little Channel low...

 

 

Shame it's the Chinese model though...

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T384 mate. That's three hundred and eighty four hours away

 

Erm, i think i know that mate. I didn't once say it would verify, did i ??

 

It's just great to look at after seeing weeks of complete mild gunk being churned out!

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Oh what the heck, here it is....

 

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or BUST!   

 

I've seen it, and believe me, it's Boom!! 

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All i can say is.... Watch out for deep FI on the GFS op.

 

One word.... BOOM!!!!!

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That's quite a feat for a MEAN chart 16 days out.

 

Yes CC. And it has been showing now for the last 3 or 4 runs.

 

Of course, at Day 16 we have to be careful not to get 'too' carried away, but as you rightly say, that is some signal there being picked up by the GEFS.

 

More of the same from the 12z's please.

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This mornings Day 16 Mean, even more Amplified than the chart i posted last night...

 

 

ENS once again looking good in FI,

 

Cold spell gathering pace maybe?

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

And amongst them there is even a visit from THE BEAST!!!

 

 

 

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Complete novice here at model reading, only came across this forum a few weeks back. Been hooked ever since!

I am based in Co Tyrone, N Ireland. Well above sea level bbut not sure exact figure. Roughly 200 metres.

Looking at some of the posts saying that Northern and Western areas could get snow later on Saturday. Fergie, do you think this risk extends to N Ireland. Would make sense as I have read of Scotland, N England and N Wales (possibly) being in the firing line.

Again, big thanks for all your v interesting observations here. You've rekindled my first love from school. I had a choice to follow either Geography or Psychology in Uni and chose the later (safer career wise) option. Often wondered where I'd have ended up if I had stuck to earth sciences.

 

 

Hello, and welcome to the forum. Good here Innit! 

 

I very much doubt Fergie can answer your question at this time of night, he's probably tucked up in bed now, (where we all should be at this time of night to be honest), but our love for all things weather keeps some of us up until ridiculous o'clock constantly checking/looking at resent output etc etc in the search for 'our' beloved favourite snowy weather! ...I really should get a life!!

 

I would very much expect some parts of N.Ireland will see at least 'some' snow during this coming weekend.

It maybe best to check out your local thread for stuff like that.

 

Ireland thread can be found here.... https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80175-ireland-regional-weather-chat/

 

Happy cold/snow hunting.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

Some of the 18Z ENS in FI look pretty decent with the main core of the PV transferring itself over to the Siberian side, And PLENTY of amplification in the Atlantic, shown nicely here in the Day 16 mean chart...

 

 

 

ENS members showing interest...

 

 

Unlike some, I am certainly not giving up hope on a cold spell developing during late January...

And no matter how long it takes i will keep searching till i'm blue in the face until i find one that actually verifies!!

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This looks really promising doesnt it! Considering those are London ensembles then most of the UK is obviously to the north and west of there so ud hope even colder? A lot of the country looking 1 or 2C??

 

Can see why some are talking about snow chances soon lovely!

 

Yes, i would suspect the ECM ENS 2M Temps for northern parts would roughly resemble those of the ones i posted from the GEFS...

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ECM London ensembles

 

 

Nice to see 1 or 2 members going for ice days towards the end there mucka   A definite cooler trend past mid-month!

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You don't get many of these to the pound!

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=17&ech=336&mode=0&carte=1

 

 

 

London ENS...

 

 

Looking COLD to me!

 

Northern England 2M temps...

 

 

Interesting to note that the Op wasn't really a cold outlier... 

And is that a -10 i see?

 

Cheers!

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Not surprising, given GFS/GEFS are still running with MJO moving into phase 7/8, but with ECM/EPS moving it into COD before phase 7, justification to remain sceptical of GFS output for now, as Ian F alluded to earlier.

CPC MJO:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

Oh, of course Nick, we are miles away from cracking open the Champagne on this one.

 

But the GEFS have been playing around with this idea for a few days now, so like i say, it was only a matter of time before we seen an Op run like the one we just saw. We really do need to see a shift (without COD) to phase 7/8 in the ECM/EPS pretty smartish though, then we can start to have more confidence. But feet firmly on the ground for now...