[South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 01/03/14]

Amplification in the atlantic will be hard to achieve

 

Hi Tam 

 

GEFS 18z seem to disagree with that idea as can be seen in the pic below.

 

Plenty of amplification there.

 

Will be interesting to see how this develops during the coming days.

 

Of course, for now, i favour your idea (as you're 'mostly' always on the ball) of less amplification and only slow inroads of cooler/colder weather next week from the NW.

But who knows, maybe a late proper cold Northerly blast isn't completely out of the question 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

GEFS Day 10 mean

 

 

 

   

 

Looks pretty darn chilly for the time of the year, and if it was to verify it would be a massive shock to the system after this weeks springlike conditions.

 

Definitely momentum building now for a 'cold shot' later this month.

 

Interesting ECM 12Z coming up, especially day 7 onwards.

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Nice GFS 12Z.

 

In fact... VERY nice indeed 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Looks like FI starts around the 15th/16th March with uppers ranging from around +10 to -10 next weekend.

Also a few Ens members wanting to bring uppers close to -10 as we head further into March.

 

 

 

 

The 6Z control run a real eye opener in FI...

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=264&mode=0&carte=0

 

A wintry blast later this month certainly can't be wholly ruled out at this stage.

 

Maybe a case of enjoy the pleasant warm settled weather while it lasts??

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

If you are a mildie or a fan of dryer/settled weather then things are looking better this morning from the models for higher pressure to possibly start influencing our weather (finally some might say) in around 7 - 10 days time. Things also may start to turn quite mild too.

 

GFS and ECM now in agreement with hight rises pushing up from the south.

 

 

 

 

 

Early days yet, and the charts above are still way out in FI, but maybe a trend starting to develop?

 

Who knows, maybe spring is just around the corner?

 

Anyway, i'm Just about to travel up to the midlands. Maybe i will get to see my first snowflake of ''winter' on my travels... But i won't be holding my breath.

 

P.s - See, i can post settled/mild charts sometimes, even though i don't really like them

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

That 'toasty' weather won't last more than a couple of days or so on this run. Cooler air soon following on from the west i would imagine.

 

Voila

 

 

We are not even in spring yet, so patience is going to be required for warm settled weather lovers.

 

Don't worry though, your time will come soon enough 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

On the other hand

 

Looking toasty later on

 

That 'toasty' weather won't last more than a couple of days or so on this run. Cooler air soon following on from the west i would imagine.

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

You don't necessarily need high pressure for decent conditions though

 

I never said you did 

 

Meanwhile, GFS 18Z once again shows the potential for snow for parts of the UK for Monday/Wednesday next week.

 

 

[South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/14]

Fantastic post as always Tamara. What an absolute joy it is to have you in the SE/EA thread.

 

So glad to see you continuing to post in here.

 

Keep up the good work girl.

 

 

Quite a nice day here on the East coast. Was quite mild/pleasant in the sunshine.

 

 Did i actually just say that? I'm a massive coldie and don't care much for mild weather. Perhaps i'm on the turn! 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

ECM 12Z only showing one mild day next week. The rest of the run is rather cool, and remaining fairly unsettled.

 

One thing i have noticed is that High Pressure keeps getting pushed further and further back. Not a good sign for those wanting a dry settled spell.

 

If this carries on it'll be Easter before the UK see's a decent pressure rise.

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Some very mild charts on show tonight for the south especially later next week would be very welcome after the wettest winter on record and would certainly help those recovering from flooded properties

 

Doesn't last long though gav, as colder weather comes down from the North.

 

 

 

 

All academic of course as all charts you and i have posted are way out deep in FI.

 

Onto the more reliable (ish) timeframe, a definite snow risk for next week according to the GFS 12Z and UKMO 12Z.

 

Finer details will obviously firm up closer to the time.

 

 

 

One to watch for sure.

[South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/14]

i think tam should stay in here

 

will be the mad threads loss

 

not ours

 

Don't worry, she may of give up on the MAD thread, but she'll continue to post in here, i'm sure of it.

 

She knows that this is the best thread on the whole of this site.

 

Tamara just won't be able to stay away.

 

[South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/14]

I already have john - and have received a derisory reply. Time to give up definitely

 

Don't give up Tamara. You're a breath of fresh air to all the threads that you post in.

I for one love reading your long informative posts, and i have learnt a great deal from you in the 15 or so months that i have been a member.

There are always one or two idiots lurking on forums etc, but please don't let them spoil your enjoyment. 

Just ignore them Tamara, they're not worth it at the end of the day.

 

Really hope that you change your mind and continue to post.

 

Keep smiling.

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

GFS 18Z not in agreement with the ECM's idea of HP at days 9 / 10 

 

 

 

It's not until deep FI the GFS then shows some settled weather... albeit cool, with some widespread frosts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still no reals signs as of yet from most of the models of an early taste of warm springlike weather.

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Not the start to spring most will be looking for from the UKMO this evening,with a deep channel low

which would bring heavy rain and gales especially to Southern areas.

 

Nope, certainly not the start to spring that many are looking for, but i'll be happy enough as i'm hoping for a very cool spring 

 

ECM  12Z out to 144h

 

 

Unsettled and Cool just about sums it up.

 

I wonder if Darren Bett/Met Office are as confident of dryer weather for next week as they were a couple of days ago? Or has the signal been muted somewhat?

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

UKMO 12Z looking rather unsettled. Still not much sign of a ridge/high pressure that i've been hearing about just recently

 

Wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of wintry ppn either at the weekend/early next week, more especially over high ground.

 

 

 

 

 

GEM 12Z also looks unsettled...

 

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

CFS for March. Nice.

 

If only we could trust it.

 

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Ermmmm... The ridge has made a right pig's ear of it on the ECM 12Z.

 

 

Is it on the ropes before it's even got here?

 

 

Chilly W'ly winds at 216h...

 

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

I totally agree Tim. GFS always seems to be stuck in around 4th place now a days. Someone should of pulled the plug on it ages ago. Although if that happened we'd have a lot less to talk about on here that's for sure.

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

How "mighty" is the NAVGEM? Anyone know how well it's been performing recently?

 

Hmm, at a guess... It's probably about 25th place in the verification stats 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

hmmmm, is this another window of settled weather slipping away? I guess there will be a very transient ridge for a couple of days but that might be it. Not all bad for the south and east though if dry/sun is what you're after, we've had a few fairly spring-like days since the weekend before last and I guess we'll have a few more off these in the next 10 days judging by these charts.

GEM later stages are interesting, could possibly squeeze some snow out of this set-up. (sorry can't post charts, on phone)

 

Yep. And to add to that further, the mighty Navgem 12Z also not going for High Pressure.

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

GEM 12Z not really that interested in building High Pressure early next week...

 

 

 

 

UKMO 12Z not too bothered with that idea either....

 

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Does anyone have any idea of what the uppers are for today's UKMO 12z 144h as they are not showing on meteociel.

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Will check the CFS in a minute to see what it thinks

 

The chocolate fireguard (aka CFS) keeps banging the drum for a fairly cold March/April.

 

I seem to remember it doing likewise last year, and we all know what happened there.

[Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards]

Ecm 12Z ends with cool NW winds